Men are detained by the Syrian Democratic Forces after coming out from last Islamic State pocket, near the village of Baghouz, Deir Al Zor province, March 1. REUTERS/Rodi Said
Military Times: Low aim or intel failure? ISIS’ last stand shows the difficulty in estimating enemy manpower
It has been difficult to find a credible number for the Islamic State group’s total troop strength ever since it emerged, and speculation has ranged widely.
The CIA estimated in September 2014 that ISIS could muster up to 31,500 fighters across Iraq and Syria.
Either that estimate was really low or the network of fighters grew considerably because the estimated enemy killed-in-action far out-paced ISIS’ total strength over the next three years.
During that time frame, the U.S.-led Inherent Resolve coalition killed “60,000 to 70,000″ ISIS followers, Gen. Raymond Thomas, who helms U.S. Special Operations Command, said in July 2017.
But by July 2018, Inherent Resolve said it estimated “ISIS manpower” at once again between 28,600 and 31,600 in Iraq and Syria.
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WNU Editor: I have been following this conflict since the beginning, and even I was surprised by the large number of civilians and fighters that streamed out of the eastern Syrian town of Baghouz at the end. As to the question .... was this an intelligence failure? The answer is .... definitely.
4 comments:
Lot of people in a small spot. I'm interested in the logistics. Lots of "municipal problems" there in the caliphate. Just like San Francisco they had a homeless problem.
Not surprised by this. It's always been difficult to estimate numbers of fighters. And they probably thought till the end they could surprise us with tons of fighters. No. Not surprised. And victory was coming, no matter what.
BUT: What's discussed not really is the total amount of ISIS fighters killed during the entire conflict. 200,000? 500,000? 1 million?
And when do we admit that this is not a small terror group?
And when do we admit that this is not a small fraction of Muslims?
2001: Estimates were about 20,000 fighters world wide(!)
2010: Estimated were around 70,000-150,000 fighters world wide
in 2019, at the end of ISIS caliphate, we know it's likely in the millions that have been killed (on Al Quaeda, ISIS and other extremist fundamentalist terror groups).. Millions!
But, Don Lemon on CNN goes out on live air and says - after 2 terror incidents - that white people are the biggest terror threat to the US.
Right.
Let that sink in.
Millions of terrorists on one side, and Don Lemon calls an entire race the problem. CNN, how low will you go to divide this nation?
Your data is only as good as your sample size.
If a meteorologist fails top predict the weather 3 days out, maybe it is because there are not enough weather stations.
Maybe there was not enough sigint, satellites and humint and analysts.
Surveillance in any profession or industry costs money.
My take is this is a royal Congressional fuck up.
6:27 is right
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