The National: Vladimir Putin faces Syria fatigue from the Russian public as final battle looms
More than half of Russians say the Kremlin should end its military intervention on behalf of Bashar Al Assad
Russian President Vladimir Putin may be facing a crisis of public confidence in his military policies in Syria as new polling data show that fewer Russians than ever support his intervention in the eight-year war.
The figures, released on Monday by one of Russia’s only independent polling groups, show that more than half of the population believe the Kremlin should end its military campaign in Syria.
Russia entered the war in September 2015 on the side of Syria’s embattled leader, Bashar Al Assad. Regime forces and their allies were losing ground to militants and armed opposition groups until the Kremlin rallied to Mr Al Assad’s side and turned the tide of the conflict in his favour.
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WNU Editor: I would say that among my Russian family and friends .... about 80% want Russia out of Syria. And this is coming from a group that I know support Putin on most policies. As to what is my take. The war in Syria is going to go on for a few more years, and the costs for Russia will continue. This 50% opinion that Russia should leave will climb to 70% (if not more), and it will be the next Russian President who will decide on what to do with Syria. My prediction. With the exception of the Latakia port, there will be a significant draw-down of Russian troops.
5 comments:
Putin obstensibly intervened in Syria to 1) retain the old Russian base in Latakia, 2) protect the Christian and other religious minorities from a vindictive Sunni population, and 3) poke the USA/Obama in the eye.
He's accomplished all three goals. Whatever the final resolution in Syria, it is hard to see how he'll lose. From a purely utilitarian perspective, it's hard to see what he will gain by continued intervention that is worth the cost. But people have egos.
Chris
nope: he poked Trump in the face...wake up...Putin nodded to Trump and Trump bowed
In my view, Russia intervened in Syria for three reasons:
1. To keep the Assad regime from falling. This is not because Russia has any genuine affection for Assad, but because any regime that replaced Assad would likely be relatively more hostile to Russia's interests. One result of Assad's fall is that it would have been perceived as a victory for the USA and for the West. Putin is always opposed to Western victories.
2. To obtain a naval base in Latakia. Having a base in the Med has been a Russian goal since the Tsars. I understand that Russia also now has an air base nearby.
3. To retain influence in Syria and the region. Syria is positioned in a very sensitive area: near Israel, on Iran's land route to Lebanon, near Iraq, near Jordan, etc. In my view, Russia is likely uninterested in the exact boundaries of Syrian Government control of the country, or of the boundaries of the spheres of influence of Iran, Turkey, Kurds, etc., or of whether any of Syria remains under the control of Islamic terrorist groups. To enter those battles would be costly. But for a relatively small investment of Russian blood and treasure, Russia has a seat at the table in Syria and influence over events there. This influence is mainly "negative", i.e. to prevent certain results, rather than the "positive" power to impose the result you want. This is a modest goal and Putin has attained it.
I wonder whether Russia really cares about the fate of Idlib and the rebels there, or the parts of Syria controlled by Kurds. I could see Putin viewing Idlib and the Kurdish controlled areas to be useful to keep Assad weak and beholden to Russia, and to keep all the other players (Turkey, Iran, Islamic terrorists, the West, Israel, etc.) off balance. I understand that Russia is bombing Idlib, but I wonder whether Russia will bomb at the intensity required to enable Assad to conquer Idlib. I would love to see reports of whether the current fighting is really the preparation for an all out assault on Idlib, or merely Russia going through the motions.
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I like all three, but especially #3.
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