The Nimitz-class aircraft carriers USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74), foreground, and USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) conduct dual aircraft carrier strike group operations in the U.S. 7th Fleet area. (Mass Communication Spec. 3rd Class Jake Greenberg/U.S. Navy)
Washington Examiner: Here's how you'll know we're about to go to war with Iran — right now, we're not
National security adviser John Bolton might be open to war with Iran. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo might also. But not so much President Trump, who has distanced himself from these top two advisers.
There is no good evidence that the Trump administration is preparing for war with Iran. Recent actions over the past two weeks to reduce the U.S. vulnerability to Iranian attacks are justified by intelligence reporting, Iran's ideology and track record, and the standing threat. But were the United States about to go to war with Iran we would see the following:
First, we would have to stage an extremely large air and naval force buildup in the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf, for strike operations inside Iran and defeat of Iran's naval forces. We'd also have to do it in the Mediterranean Sea, to help defend Israel against Iranian ballistic missile attacks and to complicate Russian action via its Black Sea fleet.
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WNU Editor: When I see a third of America's military might in the Middle East, that is when I will know that the U.S. is serious.
7 comments:
The US forward deployed naval and Air Force is presently capable to paralyze and disarm the mobile internal security forces and blocking up missile and command and control. The analysis provided is a false flag to slow the internal preparedness of Iran and sympathetic forces. They are not fooled. They know they can be struck without notice or further sign. Our intelligence agencies are watching as they prepare and harden positions.
We can take their military out but occupation will not work.
We seem to me to be with regards to Iran right now is in a similar position to where we were with regards to North Korea around about September 2017. The rhetoric was incredibly heated back then, war seemed inevitable, such a war would have meant at least millions if not 10s of millions of Americans dead, and ultimatele victory was far from certain.
We are in an identical spot with Iran today as we were with regards to North Korea back then except IMHO the threat posed by Iran is significantly greater today than the threat posed by North Korea was back then. Iran's proxies are far more capable, they have numerous allies that North Korea lacks, and our western Euroopean "allies" seem to have no willingness to back us up and, in fact, may be adversarial to us with regards to Iran today in ways they were not towards us with regards to North Korea back then.
Today approximately 20 months later we are in a MUCH better position with regards to North Korea than we were back then. While we have had some setbacks of late, the situation is not solved yet, and there still is much that can go wrong we are in a much better situation than we were back tgen.
Hopefully the situation with Iran will follow a similar trajectory as the situation with North Korea has. If we can be in a similar situatuon with regards to Iran come November 2020 (20 months from now) that we are in with regards to North Korea today, this would be a vast improvement.
Perhaps team Trump is pursuing a similar model with regards to Iran that it has pursued with regards to North Korea. If so, since they are vastly different countries the "model" would obviously need to be tweaked in dealings with Iran.
Jim,
There is a possibility that we could take their military out, however, I fully agree that occupation is no possibility. As it isn't a possibility, it can't really be a part of any planning. IF someone were to pursue a strategy that involved changing the government, there would need to be a capable opposition to the government ready, willing, and able to move in as the old government is removed.
I too agree occupation is not an option. In this instance, Iran, anarchy within may prove the greatest antiseptic to the minority of truly fanatic religious zealots. By this I mean that the people of all walks and sectors of Iranian society would likely shake out a stable and somewhat secular society if left to the mechanism of a quasi democratic process - post Ayatollah rule. This is my hope and as B. Poster intimated, would be the best outcome for us all. Let Peace reign. But don’t step on our democracy, internal or external!
I wish the same altruistic outcome could hope to take place in the Sunni ruled Emirates etc. unfortunately, in my estimation these people’s have little history, compared to the Persians in an intellectual and ethically ruled and open society. It is still in the psyche of the average Persian, waiting to be free of the bounds of the archaic zealotry of antiquated thinking. Like Alabama, and many knuckle draggers who exist in our society as well.
Knuckle draggers, really.
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