Richard Fernandez, PJ Media: Pollsters Blindsided Again: Australian Labor Party's Surprise Defeat Echoes Hillary, Brexit
Australia's Labor party was supposed to have won yesterday's election handily. Their surefire formula for victory of increased taxes, heightened spending on climate change and engagement with China would bring in the votes. Then the unexpected happened: Labor lost.
Australia’s Liberal-National Coalition government has returned to power in the 2019 federal election, despite polls consistently predicting victory for the opposition Labor Party. The most surprising result for Labor came from the state of Queensland. Now, many people are comparing the shock result to the 2016 US election and the UK's Brexit referendum, which both defied opinion polls.
Few if any of the pollsters predicted it. The resulting bafflement was expressed by one tweet: "How could polls, from every company, for months including exit polls taken on election day not just be wrong but spectacularly wrong?" It was a massive intelligence failure and one worthy of examination. All political parties presumably pay for accurate polling, even if it shows them losing, because possession of the true facts is the only way to adjust their strategy. But after three failed predictions in three major Anglosphere elections, it may be time to ask how the polls got it wrong.
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WNU Editor: In the case of Australia, 54 polls in a row said the Labor party was in the lead , even in the exit polls .... Australian Labor Won 54 Polls In A Row, Including Exit Poll, Lost Actual election (Guido Fawkes). I live in Canada, and I can say the same thing here. Last month there was a provincial election where the pollsters were saying a week before the election that there was a 7% spread between the ruling Socialist government and the United Conservative Party of Alberta. The conservatives won with a 23% spread. One reason that I believe explains why the polls are off is that people are no longer willing to freely give information to others anymore. We now live in a politically correct world, and one wrong tweet here, or a comment and or opinion voiced over there, all of this can bring severe consequences. What also does not help is the role that the media is playing .... disparaging and ridiculing one point of view while promoting another. As a result we have become conditioned to keep our own counsel, especially to strangers.
Speaking of polls, Zogby has President Trump at 51% .... It's not just Rasmussen! Trump tops 50 per cent in a second poll amid trade chaos as Zogby finds more than HALF of millennials approve of his job performance (Daily Mail).
Update: Here is another interesting poll result .... 57% Believe Trump Likely to Win in 2020… Up From 54% a Month Ago, 46% in February (Scott Rasmussen).
5 comments:
The polls are assuming, I suspect, that those who do not respond are a normal cross section. I think they are a more conservative cross section. I'm conservative and I never respond to polls. I don't believe the idea that people are lying to pollsters. I think they are saying what they will do.
Politics and ideological issues are spoken in hushed tones on the jobsite. Lines are drawn and we look over our shoulders.
The best thing about these polls being so wrong is the reactions of mainstream media and the dumped politicians.Priceless!
Manstien,
Where I live in a suburb north of Houston and in the surrounding area, if you work for a large company, you do not speak of politics in "hushed tones" if you are a Trump supporter or are any kind of what we would typically consider a "conservative." You do not speak of it at all. To do so or to be found out one is doing so will result, at the very least, in a lack of promotions and could lead to dismissal. If you happen to be a Clinton supporter or what is typically known as a "liberal" you are free to speak your mind. While your co workers may think you are weird, this will not adversely impact your job or your ability to be promoted.
During the 2016 presidential election campaign the top management of several large companies in the area informed their employees in not so subtle terms "do not wear pro Trump clothing, do not display pro Trump bumper stickers, and do not under any circumstances campaign for Trump." It was not that the top management of these organizations were anti-Trump. In fact, many of them likely voted for Trump. The problem is they did not want their organizations or their team members subjected to attacks from antifa thugs and other such anti-Trump personnel. Furthermore they did not want to have their organizations targeted by government officials who made it clear from the start that they did NOT want Trump as POTUS and were going to do what it ever took to prevent this from happening.
Keep in mind where I live is in one of the "reddest of the red" areas in the US. I can only imagine what kinds of threats pro-Trump people faced elsewhere in the nation. So, no people are not going to be likely to tell a pollster what they really think or they will be very circumspect about doing so.
With that said the uptick in support among millennials is not surprising. At least in the Houston, TX area where I am from, they have seen an improvements in their lifestyle and incomes and understand that the regulatory reforms and the tax cuts have benefited them tremendously. Of course where I live and work is dominated by small business owners, small business managers, mid sized business owners, managers, and those wishing to add value and advance who make up the teams. Such people are naturally going to do well and advance in an environment that rewards this via regulatory reforms and tax cuts.
In contrast, government employees, university professors, and well fare recipients who have always done well especially the government employees and the university professors may not be seeing the same income advances as those mentioned above are.
Anon (6:40PM),
I agree. There is little to add except to say in the face of being wrong so many times one would think they would learn something. Instead they double down on stupidity. The "its not just Rasmussen!...." headline is classic. While no poll is perfect and they will be wrong from time to time no matter how good they are, Rasmussen is IMHO the best pollster in the business. I've been pointing it out for years since long before Trump ran for president this last time. As such, when they prove more accurate than other pollsters this does not surprise me. Frankly, I think POTUS's approval rating is higher among all groups including millennials than any of the polls are capturing. To support any kind of "conservative" position in public and especially to show such support for POTUS carries a degree of risk. Generally most wish to avoid being on the receiving end of attacks by antifa thugs or to find themselves in the clutches of government personnel for supporting a position that they do not.
"All political parties presumably pay for accurate polling" Be that as it may, professional liars are not going to be more trustworthy when 'managed' by opinion manipulating specialists. Just one reason that is not an astute analysis : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll
A push poll is an interactive marketing technique, most commonly employed during political ... In a push poll, large numbers of voters are contacted with little effort made to actually ... They are risky for this same reason: if credible evidence emerges that the polls were directly ordered by a campaign or candidate, it could do ...
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