Vandana Hari, Nikkei Asian Review: Asia has most to lose if Middle East turmoil hits oil supplies
As US-Iran tensions, can crude importers defend their interests?
U.S. President Donald Trump says he might take military action against Iran to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon. But he has indicated he won't necessarily jump in to protect international oil supplies from the Middle East if they are under threat from the Islamic Republic.
The position, articulated by Trump in an interview with Time magazine on June 17, should not come as a surprise, even if it appears to be at odds with the Pentagon beefing up aircraft carriers and troops in the Middle East in recent weeks, citing a threat from Iran.
As Trump spelt out in the interview, the U.S. is no longer as dependent on oil from the Middle East as it was, thanks to burgeoning domestic production.
Air Force General Paul Selva, vice chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, emphasized the message a day later, pointing out that China, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea were heavily dependent on supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and needed to protect their interests. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has made similar comments.
The argument that the Gulf of Oman, where six oil tankers were attacked in the space of a month over May and June, is not as strategic to the U.S. as it is to countries in Asia, cannot be faulted. The U.S.'s crude import volumes, including those from the Middle East, have plummeted since its shale renaissance sent domestic output rocketing from around 2012.
Meanwhile, China, India, Japan and South Korea, Asia's four largest oil consumers, secure up to half their crude requirements from the Middle East. If seaborne shipments of oil from that region -- a majority of which pass through the narrow Strait of Hormuz adjoining Iran -- are disrupted, it would be nothing short of disastrous for these countries.
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WNU Editor: India has already deployed warships to protect its oil tankers .... India Deploys Warships To The Persian Gulf (June 21, 2019). Will China, Japan, and South Korea where half of their crude requirements come from the Middle East follow suit? I am willing to bet that if there is another oil tanker attack, the answer will be a yes. This is a massive shift on how the world views the Middle East. When Iran was America’s problem, much of the world was less than supportive. Flash forward to today, President Trump is making Iran the world’s problem. I call this smart strategy and policy.
3 comments:
People are slow on the uptake. American reinforcements have nothing to do with free flow of oil and everything to do with protecting Americans stationed in Iraq, Syria, UAE, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, etc. Those people make juicy targets for the QUDS without protection.
American policy is clear for Iran, attack Americans and the US will defend itself. In the meantime the USA economic blockade of Iran, itself an act of war, continues fullbore.
The lack of US dependence on Gulf oil has been obvious to the DOD and Trump since 2018 and even less will be needed this year. The worse Iran behaves, the more Asians will want American crude and LNG.
Yes.
Anon, to get this LNG out to customers in need, we need some pipelines. New ones. Unfortunately this will create an uproar in the dim-oh-crats' henhouse. Anyone have a stopwatch to time how long it will take the dimz to fall in love with "our" fossil fuels as their new strategy to thwart DJT continuing to correct long long overdue situations in this country. Open borders anyone for a starter?
A bit tricky their need for quickness and stealth in this matter. They will have to turn 180 degrees fast. They'll have to incapacitate AOC. That's easy. Hand her off to the Clintons and "friends". Don't forget the cement for her new shoes al la bill and hill.. The rest of the maneuverings are going to be difficult. The problem is the general staff. I mean...Miss Nancy? The fainting & spacing Nadler? He of the LSD flashback?. What's your name again? For muscle less than the clinton's there's the ever intimidating adam, Mr. Atlas, schiff.. There's a waistline I'd hate to see in a bikini during an 8.0 quake here in Cal. Miss Lizzie, she'll be tied up with choosing the feathers for her 2020 warbonnet and won't contribute.
Trump has made things difficult for this mindset. But for Schiff, they are an ossified bunch looking at 8 decades each on this planet. Nothing new there with this crowd. Same ol' same ol'. obamacare shows them at their legislative apex. DJT is fixing that for them. Grey matter? How bout' carbon black matter? With lesions. A disintegrating party of uncountable wanna-be leaders. Driftwood on the beach of history.
So this is my forecast for the future and I'm awarding myself 5 Galaxies.
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