CNBC: Hong Kong protests will be ‘settled or crushed’ ahead of China national celebrations, analyst says
* David Roche, a founder and strategist at research firm Independent Strategy, said China’s response will be “linked to what happens to trade talks and international relations globally.”
* In fact, the politics go hand in hand with the Chinese economy, he told CNBC on Friday.
* On Thursday, Hong Kong’s government announced that it is expecting to lower its 2019 GDP growth forecast to between 0% and 1%, from the original range of 2% to 3%.
The months-long protests in Hong Kong could come to an end soon, according to strategist David Roche, who said they will “be settled or crushed” before October 1 — the 70th anniversary of China’s National Day.
The way China responds to the situation in the city is crucial in determining how markets and U.S.-China trade talks will be affected, he told CNBC on Friday.
In fact, the politics go hand in hand with the Chinese economy, Roche said.
“I don’t accept this will be a small scale problem in a larger China economy. The reason I don’t is because I believe any intervention (from Beijing) to Hong Kong will be immediately, umbilically, linked to what happens to trade talks and international relations globally,” said Roche, who is president at research and investment consulting firm Independent Strategy.
Roche said “Beijing has to weigh in on two things: the political and economic cause.”
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WNU Editor: October 1 will be the 70th anniversary of China’s National Day, and it is an annual holiday. Will China intervene before that date? It is too far in the future to make such a prediction. I know that if the protests continue for the next month or two the urge for Beijing to intervene will be tremendous. But the economic and political cost will be enormous, and IMHO this is not the right time or place for a Chinese military incursion. The political and economic leadership in Hong Kong support the current government and their ties with Beijing, and even Hong Kong's movie stars are pushing for a peaceful resolution .... Jackie Chan & Mulan Star Liu Yifei Reportedly Speak Out on 'Sad and Depressing' Hong Kong Protests (People). A forceful and bloody military intervention will jeopardize all of this support, and it will certainly kill the vibrancy and energy that is Hong Kong. As to what is my take on the protests. I have been to Hong Kong dozens of times. I love the territory, and I have seen it grow and develop since the 1980s. The one country, two systems arrangement has benefited Hong Kong tremendously, and it has given Hong Kong a status that the mainland Chinese do not have. Beijing ordering the military to enter Hong Kong will destroy this arrangement, and the big losers will be the people of Hong Kong themselves. They will lose what they have right now, and the territory will never be the same.
2 comments:
Is time for small arms to start pouring down to the people to defend themselves
Actually he is right. Think of it. Afghanistan defended itself on just basic fire arms (largely) and managed to win against the USA and Russia. Vietnam defeated the US on not much more.
You don't understand warfare. And you certainly don't understand asymmetric warfare, attrition or anything.
If Hong Kongese had arms you can bet China would not be able to invade without destroying much of Hong Kong with it.
The reason why wars are always lost. And won.
Study history and then apologise you bafoon
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