Military vehicles are parked on the grounds of the Shenzhen Bay Sports Center in Shenzhen, August 15. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
Clifford Coonan, DW: Why China won't send the tanks into Hong Kong
There are reasons why the paramilitary troops of the Peoples Armed Police have not yet rolled across the border crossing at Shenzhen to crush the protests in Hong Kong. Chiefly because China needs Hong Kong.
China doesn't need the former Crown colony quite as much as it did back in 1997 when Hong Kong switched from British rule. But the Special Administrative Region remains a valuable conduit for Beijing. One the ruling Communist Party cannot risk undermining.
In the past four decades, China has emerged as the world's second-biggest economy and an integral part of the global financial system. That rise was facilitated by Hong Kong.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: This is a good explanation on why Hong Kong is important to Beijing, and why sending in the para-military forces is the last thing that President Xi wants to do. From Beijing's perspective. As long as the Hong Kong government remains in power, and the police do their job to contain the protests, the Chinese government will bide their time and hope that the protests will eventually burn out. But if the situation deteriorates to a point where the Hong Kong government has collapsed and the police desert their posts, Beijing has made it very clear that the Chinese military will be moving in ASAP.
Update: I live in Montreal, and a few years ago we had protests and riots on a daily basis over university tuition costs and social grievences. These protests and riots lasted for almost a year before they burned themselves out. My contacts in China are telling me that they are hoping for the same thing with these protests. That in the next month or two the situation will return to normal. But my gut is telling me no. These protesters are very motivated, and they do not strike me as a group that will give up anytime soon.
22 comments:
No one in his right mind will set a foot on Chinese soil for business or pleasure. This ship has sailed and China has lost the PR war ..These are just the First Symptoms. I expect people in China to eventually protest next. They are of course more afraid and less free than even Hong Kong Chinese. Appreciate whate have in the West. China is an ethno state, 100% controlled by ethno Chinese who are very very convinced that they are the rulers of this world. And it's scary because they really believe it. And we've strengthened this madness by giving them our money, hoping they would open up and become democratic. Instead they doubled down. 100% ethnic Chinese party who speaks in their own tongue, just look at the language they use when they talk about non Chinese. Do you really think this is what is normal? Swearing in of an army to Xi personally? To my knowledge Hitler did that.
So tell me, where were these protestors when Hong Kong was a British colony? Britain never cared a wit for democracy in Hong Kong until after 1997, when they were forced to transfer control of the city to Beijing. Maybe they want it back so they can resume their opium trafficking operations through there.
Sure, Carl...Pass the joint man
As long as the protests are contained within HK, they don't spread to mainland China, China will hang back. The Mandarins have studied popular uprising going back centuries, they won't be rash. Also as long as the US doesn't intervene or try to inflame the protests the Chinese will hang back.
I think it would be very important to determine who these protesters are, what do they want, and whose funding them? So far the US government, at least the Trump Administration, has taken a very circumspect position and largely stayed out of this. Kudos to them for doing so. To often our government has allowed their positions to be influenced by ideology leading to actions where people "leap before they look" which has been enormously detrimental to our interests.
As to why the residents of Hong Kong did not protest under the UK, I don't know. Perhaps the citizens there under the UK were allowed to live there lives in peace and achieved great prosperity. As such, the conclusion may well be "why rock the boat?" "Give me liberty or give me death," while noble is for some and it is not for some. Others might well say "give me security, allow me to live my life in peace, and provide an environment where I and my loved ones can achieve prosperity." Maybe the residents of Hong Kong don't think the Chinese government is doing a good job at these things.
In any event, it would be a good idea to find out who is financing, organizing, and leading the protests as well as what they actually want. There does seem to be reason to question any assertion that these protestors are protesting for "democracy" or "freedom." In other words, if they achieve power it might be "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" essentially trading one oppressor for another one. The situation might be worse. As stated, the Trump Administration has largely remained silent on this and stayed out of it. IMHO its nice to see someone may have learned from prior mistakes.
The Chinese government has eyes and ears everywhere which leads to another question. If someone, say the UK wanted to oust the Chinese from power, Chinese agents would have instantly recognized who was involved, where, when, and would have eliminated them very quickly. This would have been followed up by eliminating the leaders of the protest in Hong Kong or perhaps the protests in Hong Kong would have been snuffed out first and this would have led to the foreign "ring leaders."
The nature of the Chinese police state has been well documented in many areas including this website. Their efforts to infiltrate the "west" in general and America in particular have been well documented. Even if efforts to infiltrate the UK, America, or any other "western" country were not fully successful, the police state will allow them to easily access anything in their territory of which Hong Kong is a part. This would have or should have ensured they had access to any foreign supporters. As such, it is a safe conclusion IMHO that the UK nor America are involved in this because they would know and the propaganda victory they would get by revealing it would be enormous.
The Chinese police state could have easily crushed these protests in the cradle under normal circumstances. That is unless something or someone has them distracted so they are unable to fully focus. I suggest two possibilities. 1.)The Chinese economy is not nearly as good as we are told. There is some evidence to support such a position. This would mean the Chinese government is likely quite busy trying to control protests elsewhere and were not able to focus on Hong Kong as much initially. 2.)President Trump has demonstrated guile the likes of which no other US president at least since the WW2 era has. Perhaps he and his team have something on Xi.
I'd tend to go with option 1. Something clearly had them distracted at least at the start of this. It would be a good question for US officials to try and determine what that was as it will likely help us to better deal with China.
If you are in that corner saying "the Chinese know what they're doing" please wake the fuck up. And just stop OK? ..they fail all the fing time. All the time. Have done so for centuries. They are one of the oldest cultures and have accomplished nothing.
Even in that field you mentioned. What do you think the Tiamen square is famous for? Certainly not for how Chinese gov people are good at shit.. Ffs people should not listen to our analysts on China. They have no idea. Go there. Look at the pollution. .the air is so thick sometimes you barely find your way to the car..the corruption. .ffs
Uhhh bposer doesn't like if anything happens that's bad for Russia china :)))
Summer school break will end in a couple of weeks.
B Poser, I like that appellation.
Something is wrong there. How an American accountant living in north central Texas of Cajun background can be so pro-Russian and pro-Chinese stinks to High Heaven.
I am reminded that the military knew a few civilian workers overseas were working for terrorists. They did not round them up and interrogate them. They watched them to see who they would talk to.
we all know bposser loves putin. got a poster of him above his bed. next to the lotion ;)
The protests will continue because they are spreading internationally.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12254118
This happened a couple of weeks ago in Auckland.
My friends from Hong Kong (now NZ residents) tell me that the Nationalist Chinese students appeared a tad bit demented at times in their fury that people, in a free country, would dare challenge the authority of Beijing.
Perhaps the big issue is that many international Chinese students at Auckland University (and indeed the other tertiary institutions) are getting a first-hand view that the official CCP viewpoint can be contested.
And I bet that this is being funnelled back home to poarents, friends and loved ones.
Anon:4:47 PM
Birds nest soup, firecrackers, and women's bound feet are great accomplishments. Known the world over. On the logistical front we have mass disposal. Tens of millions of agriculturalists eradicated and disposed of in Mao's creation of communes. No small accomplishment that.
Anon (4:47PM),
Excellent advice. Our academia, corporate leaders, government leaders, and media have told us a great deal about how powerful China is. There is evidence to support the notion that their analysis has been in error. I'd say something has them distracted. Perhaps it is a failing economy. I'm not sure Tiamen Square analogy applies to the current situation as the technology for surveillance
is much more potent than it was during those days and it appears to me that Chinese power and influence has expanded far beyond what it was in those days. Overall IMHO constructive input to this discussion.
Anon (4:49PM),
I did not type anything in the post that is pro Russian or Chinese. I took a pro American approach on this and essentially suggest being very circumspect about this. Take the time to get to know who these protestors are, what do they want, who organized and leads it, and who funds it among other things. We've made mistakes in the past in not properly doing our homework on these things before getting involved. Just to cite a few examples, Iraq, Libya, Ukraine, Syria, and this is jus the tip of the proverbial iceberg. Misguided strategies, tactics, and in some cases getting in them in the first place have been extremely costly for us. I would suggest actually reading my posts before commenting.
Bob,
Summer school break, good analogy, at least I think. Some people advocate inserting ourselves into certain things without trying to obtain a proper understanding of what we are doing, who are we supporting, what do we gain, what does it or will cost among other pertinent questions to ask. IMHO some of these people might benefit from some school.
Anon (5:41PM),
To reiterate nothing in this post or any other is pro-Russian. To suggest that we try and avoid conflicts we don't need, can't readily afford, and may not be able to win as I have in the past is what used to be called "statesmanship." Unfortunately this seems to be a largely a lost art. In the past, those who utilized this were referred to in this way. Unfortunately we have entered into what one commentator some time ago referred to as "silly season" and someone who advocates what was once sensible now has their patriotism questioned and this is what "stinks to high heaven." Those who recklessly undermine our interests and place the lives of our citizens in danger and for no good reason are a major problem.
By making such unfounded accusations you reveal you don't have a sound position and must resort to insults and trying to impugn my character. "I am reminded that the military knew...." I'm quite easy to find. I'm pretty sure you know exactly where to find me. Again, not having anything constructive to add you've resorted to character assassination.
You seem to be implying that I should be imprisoned for something. Fortunately military investigators are not nearly so thuggish as to harass someone such as myself for expressing an opinion or making an analysis on a blog post.
Anon (6:10PM),
See above. If you have something constructive to add to the dialogue, this is appreciated. Otherwise don't waste time.
Roger and Crussader..you're both right. And Roger funnily so hehe they truly eat the most disgusting things over there. .go to a meat market. The smell makes you puke.
Crusader it's a good point. And just goes to prove my point too hehe the Chinese are absolute utter fools in what they do. They think they have figured it out but in reality they are just baffons barely travelling the world, barely read in any international theories - from psychology to economics - they have almost no unique own thinkers. It's not that the Chinese are not great people, they are. BUT their mind has been poisoned for decades with this hypernationalism telling each other the same lies of that their time has come and that the westerners ate the bad people. We, and those Chinese who travel internationally (less than 1%of them can actually leave China for setting the world, and when they travel it's usually just next door to Singapore or Taiwan. .they barely ever have seen the world. ..less than 0.01% of the Chinese population has been to Europe. They don't know jack shit of the world and are spoon fed lies.. Sure our media feeds us lies too, BUT we get to look behind the curtains and see other countries and spend some time there. ..they have no clue. The Chinese still think right now, even with their markets tanking and every investor that I know pulling their money out (this started in my sector almost 3 years ago already)...it's just insane. If Xi doesn't manage to save face he will not see the end of this decade
Poor Bposer. A pompous and verbose troll. Who does he report to?
Anon (7:58),
You accuse me of being "pompous.' A pompous person is generally someone who has an inflated view of their importance. Also, such people tend to think they know everything about a given subject. I am quite humble and take great strides not to offend anyone. The editor himself and at least a couple of others over the years have acknowledged this. Furthermore I regularly point out that I do not know everything about the subjects I post on. In fact, this is part of the point of posting. Engage in constructive dialogue and try and learn. As such, I do not meet the definition of pompous.
You call me a troll. In Internet terminology a troll is someone who starts arguments or upsets people by posting inflammatory and off-tioic messages with the intent of provoking readers into emotional responses and normalizing off-topic discussions. As to why the troll does this, it varies. It can be for the troll's entertainment or a gain of some type, perhaps financial. Nothing in this description fits me. I do not start arguments nor do I seek to insult people. In fact, I try very hard not to insult people. I also stay on topic. The topic of this post is the protests in Hong Kong. I've stayed on topic. You on the other hand have not. Instead you've chosen to hurl insults at me all while avoiding the topic of the editor's post. As such, I do not meet the definition of a troll. You, on the other hand, would seem to meet that definition perfectly.
Am I verbose? This would suggest I am using more words than needed to express a point. These are very complicated issues that cannot be readily analyzed or discussed using the latest talking points. Therefore I tend to reject the notion that I'm verbose.
"Who does he report to?" I've been very clear who I report to? As a Certified Public Accountant I report to my clients of which there are in excess of 1,000. I report to my family members and most importantly as a born again Christian to God Himself.
Now who do you report to? I don't know. You've used the same strategy I've seen political leaders use to try and attack me. Essentially when a weak position is exposed and cannot be supported based on merit try and attack the other side via the use of personal insults. In asking this question and coupling it with baseless attacks against me you appear to be attempting to attack my character in hopes of being able to hold onto a position or otherwise win an argument that cannot be supported based on its merits. Perhaps you report to a US political leader within the Democratic party. After all you're using the same strategy some of them routinely use when a position is unsupportabe based upon merits. Insult the other side in hopes of avoiding a constructive discussion all together.
Now, if you wish to engage in constructive dialogue on this, I'm all eyes. Otherwise don't waste time.
Crusader,
This is a very interesting perspective!! Thank you for sharing this!! As a New Zealander, (at least I hope I got the terminology right) what is the position of the government of New Zealand on the Hong Kong protests? No offense but I'm pretty sure aCiba and Xi aren't likely to view New Zealand as a threat and whatever position America might take even if opposite the American one there's little risk. In contrast, China and Xi could view an American position that they deem hostile to them as a threat. All of this while we are in the midst of trying to renegotiate a very inequitable trade arrangement with China. Xi is either the most powerful or second most powerful person in the world depending upon which Forbes list is consulted. As such, it should be easy to understand why it is in America's interests to be very circumspect here. Make the wrong move and 10s of millions if our people die or we face major economic calamity.
If the protests are spreading internationally, this would tend to confirm what I've suspected. This may not be a homegrown movement for "democracy." There may be other forces at work here. Additionally some reports have suggested that certain business interests in Hong Kong have had to have extra security to protect their property from the protesters. It seems to me that some elements in this are little different than our (America's) occupy Wall Street thugs or the thugs who ransacked and pillaged Ferguson, MO.
If we support them, who and what are we supporting? At a minimum, who are they? What do they want? Who leads it? Who is organizing it? Who is financing it? So far POTUS appears to be being prudent on this which IMHO is a good thing.
As to the question of will China use tanks, I'd say "yes," The protests aren't going to stop and not crushing it would cause China to look weak. As to what such an action will cost, I'm not sure. I suspect the big losers will be Hong Kong and those who organized, led, and funded the protests. With that said there is the possibility of Divine intervention.
What a stupid effing troll.
"This is a very interesting perspective!! Thank you for sharing this!! As a New Zealander, (at least I hope I got the terminology right)"
Of this is the same poster BPoser is from Texas. Keep the story straight.
Anon (11:12PM),
I find Crusader's perspective on the protests interesting. Specifically if thesr protests have spread internationally this serves to coordinate what I've long suspected. There's something going on here besides a domestic protest. As such, the questions we need to ask about these protesters is especially apt. We simply cannot affird another blunder based upon ideology.
I'd like to get Crusader's perspective on these protests from New Zealand and what is the position of the NZ government on this. As an ally, NZ will likely heavily influenced here. As such, knowing their position is important.
I see nothing constructive offered by you here. Instead you up the slander to "stupid effing troll" and tell me to "keep the story straight" as though upping the slander is going to somehow cover for a weak position assuming you even have one. I've already addressed why I'm not a troll. Furthermore the last post stayed on topic while addressing what another person posted seeking additional information. This cannot be trolling.
I'd like to get the persoective of Crusader but responding to this is becoming tiresome. In telling me to "get the story straight," you've either not read my posts or you lied. I've been very consistent here as to my identity and as new information comes in, I've always been willing to reevaluate previously held positions. I've been very open about that. For now I'm assuming you simply haven't read my posts.
Has any of you ever managed to read an entire Bposter post? I have not.
..BUT.. I find it more fun to try read them in a Sheldon Cooper voice. But maybe a Russian Sheldon - for sure smart..maybe autistic. ..maybe just very opinionated about the world and Russia's place in it.
Let me remind you:
You (RUSSIANS!) killed millions of your own people. Invaded Poland. Invaded Ukraine. Invaded Georgia. Killed pretty much all your neighbours. Glorify a mass murderer...GOT IT? ?
Russia's economy is smaller than Italy (!) Despite that you have the largest landmass and natural resources on earth. Let me ask you. .why is that comrade? Maybe because of corruption your government is famous for? The killings too..very famous for Russia and no one wants to do business with you...
Maybe think and know your place. Russian population is aging and shrinking by numbers. And you're surrounded by NATO which you stupidly fight. And you think that China - which will hit 2billion people - hungry people - will wait for 80 million russians (that's the projected russian size in a few decades)? Please. If u think nukes will help you, you have no idea about the technology leaps before us. 80 million cannot compete with 2bn...sorry comrade. .even with the Russian myth you kept going until you were no longer allowed to take state sponsored doping and embarrassed yourself in front of other nations. .even that is gone .and when russian's finally realise that the victory day parade is a farce and you should be ashamed for celebrating what happenend. ...when the booze is gone, what will you have left, comrade? A collapsing society. .poor like fuck and 2bn Chinese next door that don't see anything in common with you. Look at how they already talk about you now. While they still have food and everything is as good as it will ever get for China ..from here on its downhill for decades to come
It's a strategic and cultural historic mistake for Russia to keep fighting the west...and why you do it? Because Outin saw the fall of the Soviet union as a historic mistake. No you fool! FFS before the fall you were impoverished..you couldn't travel. .you starved. .the cold war went on. .no one was safe ffs remember now?
The west wants nothing from you. In our eyes we are brothers. You are drunk Klingons, but you're still our brothers. .a bit crazy and self obsessed, but thats why we love you hehe just stop all this other nonsense. mother Russia is a lie. The heroism is a lie. You shot your own people in the back to face Germans who fought on your territory in winter time and you only barely made it. Stop lying to yourself, comrade!
And on top you killed millions of civilians. So no thank you comrade...take mother Russia and stuff it. All that matters is humans and you should wake up to who's on your side
Anon (12:47),
You admit you haven't read my posts in their entirety. Very respectfully it's important to actually read the someone's post before commenting as the full context is generally helpful when addressing them. Now if you simply don't want to learn or you are lazy this is up to you.
The topic of this post by the editor is the protests in Hong Kong and will Chuba send in tanks. In troll like fashion you have completely changed the topic to Russia. I've never pretended to be an expert on Russia and as more information about Russia and other topics I will often times change my positions. Wise people have said to akways challenge your assumptions.
With regards to Russia very respectfully IMHO you overestimate the power of America and the "west," underestimate the power of Russia, underestimate the power of China, overestimate the challenges faced by Russia, overestimate challenges faced by China, underestimate the challenges America and the "west" face, and underestimate the strength of the bond between China and Russia. Furthermore I think a circumspect examination of our Anerica's) role in eastern Europe post Cold War 1 needs to be examined. I've discussed these things elsewhere on this site numerous times. When one both overestimated their own ability while underestimating those of adversaries and potential adversaries, the risk of bad outcomes is extraordinarily high. As an Anerican, it's vitally important to me that we get this right. Get it wrong and the heads of my loved ones are on the chopping block!!
Finally, you have persisted in the slander of accusing me of being Russian. Perhaps you ascribe to the notion that if we shout a lie long enough and loud enough people will start to believe it. I am going to provide information on ny identity yet again on this thread. My name is Robert Foshee. I am a Certified Public Accountant and I am from Conroe,TX (United States). My company website is www.fosheecpa.com. This is ample information to find out more about me. I must say I do get sick and tired of having to address such slander. We don't know who you are.
For the duration of this thread and as time permits posting I will stay on topic which is the protests in Hong Kong. As this pertains to Russia, that specific area could obviously be addressed but I'm not aware of a Russian involvement in this at all.
Crusader,
I would like to get more on your perspective of the protests as they related to New Zealand and what is the position of the New Zealabd government on this. Unfortunately it seems as if this thread has been hijacked and gotten off topic.
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