Iranian President Hassan Rouhani speaks during the cabinet meeting in Tehran, Iran, September 4, 2019. Official President website/Handout via REUTERS
Al Jazeera: Iran vows 'extraordinarily significant' nuclear move coming
Tehran increases pressure on European signatories to the historic 2015 nuclear pact before weekend deadline.
Iranian officials ratcheted up pressure before a weekend deadline for European nations to come up with a solution for Iran to sell its oil abroad after the United States withdrew from a 2015 nuclear deal and reimposed devastating sanctions.
President Hassan Rouhani threatened on Wednesday to take additional steps and accelerate its nuclear activities if Europe fails to provide a solution by Friday.
"Iran's third step is of an extraordinarily significant nature," Rouhani said, without detailing what that would entail, adding a "decree will be announced today or tomorrow".
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WNU editor: They are probably talking about this .... Iran to develop centrifuges for faster uranium enrichment (Reuters).
22 comments:
There are 3 ways to enrich uranium (Centrifuge, Clusius tube, and filter). Turkey could do it also. One problem is cost. Centrifuges take a lot of energy. It is my understanding that Hanford was built to take advantage of the large Columbia damn. The main problem with Turkey is allocation of resources. Erdogan in is a dictator in a heterogeneous society, so it is not like everyone is pulling together.
And an extraordinary airstrike of a significant nature is coming to him via Netanyahu
Mhh I think North Korea under protection of China will be selling nukes to Iran, destabilising the entire region and increasing chances of mini nukes going off before the 2020 election. North Korea needs to money. China needs Trump to lose. Iran wants nukes more than anything. The US must credibly tell north Korea if they do this there will be war. But. There cannot be war that takes out all nukes north Korea has because China gave them mobile missile launchers, making it impossible to find and take out all 60+ nukes (likely more around 100 now), before they can be launched as the mobile missile launch strategy is aimed at establishing a Triad. Just like Russia and Pakistan have their nukes on trucks. North Korea also now has the nuke sub. So the US - in case of War - will not be able to defend reliably and lose a handful or more key cities. Likely on west coast more as this is what north Korea can reach more easily. Means LA and SF. The cultural and technological centres of the US.
And the US has just scraped their billion dollar missile defense program. Signalling to everyone "we know we won't be able to get all nukes in the air/space" (... and we won't be trying)
We might be inching closer to a first strike scenario if the north Korea, Iran, China axis progresses. Putin must decide how far he wants this game to continue. Is he really going to keep siding with north Korea, China and Iran? Is that the future of Russia?
Mhhh
Anon 9:44AM.
Good point about Putin's growing dilemma.
Thanks for the insight.
Well said sir.
An “extraordinary significant” move would be indoor plumbing for your citizens, but first let’s get the necessities out of the way...
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani says increased uranium enrichment will start "immediately". Al Jazeera has been granted rare access to the only nuclear research facility in Iran where the much-disputed 20 percent enriched uranium is being used. Al Jazeera's Dorsa Jabbari has this exclusive report from the Tehran Nuclear Research Reactor.
Fazman,
I think you may be correct. I patiently explained to friends and family in January 2008 that we did not need to worry about Iranian nuclear weapons. The Israelis would take care of this problem and we wouldn't even know it happened until later.
Frankly. IMHO the Israelis have technical capabilities, training, leadership, and Intelligence capabilities that we lack. As such, they are in a much better position to deal with this than we are to deal with this and when Israel does deal with this the best thing for America to do would be TO GET OUT OF ISRAEL'S WAY!! Given the penchant that American officials have to "leak" and the high likelyhood that Iranian operatives in the American government would warn the Iranians of any pending Israeli actions if they knew it would be pretty near vitally important to keep the Americans out of the loop in order to maximize the chances for success.
In the current situation, should the "extraordinary airstrike" you suggest occur a similar dynamic applies. The less we are involved the more likely it is to succeed. In fact, I think President Trump and his team understand this and have an understanding of the problems I mention above and are acting accordingly.
Whether by design or by accident the Americans are largely staying out of it. As a result, the airsrtikes appear to be having such an effect that multiple sources have suggested the Iranians are now considering the possibility of good faith negotiations with America which is what Trump and his team wanted all along. IMHO, while I could be mistaken, any effect the sanctions are having is neglible. As such, I think a safe conclusion that the air strikes are the primary reason for the apparent change in the Iranian position and America staying out of it enhanced their success. IMHO Trump and his team understand this and America staying out of it is by design. Regardless I think this is exactly the right policy for us.
Parrot,
Interesting article, thank you for the link. Multiple sources have suggested that the Iranians may be "inching" toward negotiations with America. If so, this is quite a change. For the most part, this has been inconceivable on the part of the Iranian leadership in times past. Given the inconceivabilty of such a thing in the past and the fact that multiple sources are reporting it, I believe it more likely than not that the Iranians are now exploring the possibility of good faith negotiations which I view as a positive development.
While the author does credit the Israeli airsrtikes for these developments, I think he over estimates the impact of sanctions which I believe are neglible at best. Additionally IMHO he misunderstands so called American "passivity." Essentially it is by design. The Israelis are in a better position to deal with this than we are. Essentially when you need "heavy lifting" it is often cost effective to hire a mover. Unless you are a professional mover yourself the professional will be much better able to do this than you will be able to. This is not to say our military isn't capable. It certainly is!! It's just that the Israelis are much better suited for this than we are and for reasons I explain above to Fazman above us staying out of it enhances the chances of success. Understanding this team Trump has opted for so called "passivity." I think a better description would be not meddling in the affairs ally especially when they are in a better position to carry out a mission that is of significant importance to both us. IMHO by design or accident American foreign policy has thus far been exactly right here. I think it is by design.
He goes on to say Trump has a penchant for changing his mind as though there is no method to it. INHO he fundamentally misreads the situation. A better description of Trump's course changes would be "flexibility" and "adaptability." Essentially things tend to change fast. One must be flexible to be able to adjust and adapt to the changes very quickly. This is a mark of good leadership. Being stuck in ideology tends to not end well.
He also compares the situation to North Korea but tends to downplay what has been accomplished there. When compared with where we were two years ago with regards to where we are now, while there remains much that can go wrong and much still to do, the improvements are vast. If we can achieve a similar dynamic with regards to Iran, this would be great.
He is correct to point out that allot can happen and Israel is taking an enormous risk here. America is taking an enormous risk as well. I pray our leaders get this right. I'd say so far so good and keeping us out of Israel's way is strategic brilliance.
I'd say its by Design with the 2020 coming up. Israel does the hit with U. S backing to limit spill over.
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unknown? what is wrong about Anon?
Fazman,
"I'd say by design with 2020 coming up." I don't think either Trump or Netanyahu are looking at elections coming up even though, as I understand it, Israel has one coming up soon. These men are solely focused on the security of their nations. Trump wants to get the Iranians to the negotiating table to negotiate an end to the Iranian threat against America. Israel is trying to eliminate grave threats to their national security.
"Israel does the hit with US backing to limit spill over." Frankly, if this goes awry, I am not sure how you expect the US to limit such "spill over." The US military capabilities in the region are insufficient to accomplish such a mission and even if they could be added the US is very limited at this point in time. The best "backing" the US can give is to STAY OUT OF ISRAEL'S WAY! Thankfully that is what we seem to be doing right now.
As I recall a year or so ago, Israel conducted airstrikes on targets in Syria requiring them to overfly Iraqi airspace where the US had been granted jurisdiction by the Iraqi government. The US did nothing. The Iraqi government complained about this but not much came of it. That seemed interesting to me. If the US had the capability to detect and divert the Israeli planes and didn't, it seems doubtful the Iraqi government would want the US forces to remain as they would be deemed an untrustworthy partner. As such, I think there is a very strong possibility that the US lacks the capability to detect much less challenge the Israeli Air Force. For reasons to numerous to go into right now many would want such knowledge to be kept under tight wraps. As such, the "passivity" may be "helplessness" to do anything about the Israeli actions even if we wanted to. The "backing" in this case is staying out of the way because there's nothing we could do about it anyway. This seems to be working out for both of us. As for team Trump, they probably appreciate the value of the Israeli alliance and having someone on our side who can bring such capabilities.
Israel has publicly come seeking reassurances from the U. S of full and unlimited support if things go kinetic.
They will need U. S intel(satellite access), heavy ordnance, bunker busting bombs etc.
Israel can't do this alone, there will be behind the scenes, support here.
You underestimate Israeli capabilities. The best and really only "full and unlimited" America can offer will be to stay out of the way. I'd like to think Trump understands this. The Israelis need to succeed here. Getting out of their way is the best option affording the best chances for success.
As for the satelite access, heavy ordinance and bunker busting capabilities, as pointed out, you underestimate them. They definitely don't need us here. In fact, such coordination would actually be counterproductive as Iranian operatives in the US government would learn of the details of the operations and in turn pass them on to the Iranian government. As such, "passivity" is the best option meaning no "behind the scenes" coordination as such actions would serve to undermine the interests of both countries.
If things go "kinetic" as you put it, well Israel is taking a huge risk here. The US has often used Israel in this manner not caring if they get hurt. Frankly this is a crappy way to treat such a valuable ally. in military and political terms our abilities here are quite limited as they are. By finally getting out of the way we've either stumbled into the correct policy or have by design executed a brilliant strategy. With the brilliance Trump had displayed in the past I'm inclined to conclude this is brilliant.
Israel does not have the ordnance to penetrate sites such as their underground nuclear and under mountain missile sites, they will also refuelling aircraft and possibly new aircraft to deliver it.
Israel is capable but is till dependant the U. S for anything more than a limited short duration strike.
I'd say its by Design, Israel does the punching, trump supplies the gym and boxing gloves.
Thank you for the dialogue on this. I am familiar with your take on this. It is shared or seems to be shared by mainline US (un)intelligence services and given the track record I don't trust them. Furthermore this assumes Israel has just been sitting on their hands since the 1990s. Given the myriad of threats they face, this seems very unlikely. This coupled with demonstrated technical abilities that Israel has to modify existing technologies and knowing American support is tepid at best in terms of both desire and ability makes it very unlikely that Israel has not already domestically addressed the basic issues surrounding such a mission as the elimination of Iran's nuclear program that you address above.
Add to this the fact that the Israeli military is the best led and best trained on the planet. Additionally strategic planning is next to none.
Bottom line: these issues have already been addressed and resolved domestically and our help is not only not needed but would be counterproductive. Best approach for us: get out of the way. Let the IDF do its job.
The analogy of the gym and boxing gloves is interesting. The problem with this is it involves the United States. Given the propensity of US officials to "leak" along with Iranian operatives within the US government who would almost certainly pass the details on to the Iranian government would make such involvement on the part of America counterproductive. As such, in the Israeli operation to take out the Iranian nuclear weapons program should it take place there can be and will be no coordination or contact with the Americans should it come to that which is exactly how it needs to be to maximize the chances of success.
For what it's worth, the current Israeli operations seem far more limited in scale and designed to deal with far more quickly acute threats. They seem to be having much success precisely because we've stayed out of it AND if this has the added bonus in having a role in getting Iran to negotiate in good faith this would be awesome. I think Trump understands these things. The "passivity" is by design. Time permitting I will add more analysis later.
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