Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses lawmakers from of his ruling AK Party during a meeting at the parliament in Ankara, Turkey, October 30, 2019. Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS
Reuters: Turks' support for Erdogan jumps after Syria operation, poll shows
ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turks’ support for President Tayyip Erdogan surged last month, when Ankara launched a military incursion in northeastern Syria to clear the Kurdish YPG militia from near its border, a survey by Metropoll showed on Tuesday.
Erdogan’s approval rating rose by 3.7 percentage points in October to 48%, the survey showed, its highest level since shortly after presidential elections in June of 2018, which were held before last year’s currency crisis took hold.
His disapproval rate fell 9.3 percentage points to 33.7%, its lowest level since a failed coup in July 2016. Some 18% of participants did not respond to the survey question or said they had no idea.
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WNU Editor: My Turkish friends says that this is just a brief jump in support. The economy is his Achilles Heel, and it is not going to get better anytime soon. My take is different. His support has always been there, and it is solid. If it was not, he would have been gone a long time ago.
7 comments:
This man is not from hear fools
Looks like my nabour
Hell no
Erdogan is a strong man and many Turks are chauvinists.
I have a Turkish-American neighbor and he is a chauvinists through and through.
I bet they are.😂😂😂
Erdogan has the loyalty of around 35-40% of the Turkish population, which is a strong base - the strongest of any party in Turkey. He can win the votes of another 10-15%, which has given him outright majorities, but is dependent on other factors and can be lost.
The previous elections shows Erdogan has lost much of that 10-15% vote. After winning outright control of parliament in 2002, he lost it in 2015. He now relies on coalition with nationalists. Since then, Turkish elections have been marked with irregularities and voter suppression. In 2018, his party lost the local elections for Istanbul and Ankara. His response to these defeats has been to try to annul elections and remove rival politicians from office.
So things are shifting, although Erdogan and the AKP are still the largest political force in Turkey. Opinion polling prior to the war showed support for AKP in the next round of elections (due in 2023) to be eroding from 45% to 35% while its main challenger, the CHP, increased from 25% to 30%.
The initial aftermath of start of war almost always sees the party in power gain as people rally to the flag. Whether they continue to vote for the party in power depends on the success and longevity of the war. So it is no surprise that Erdogan has received a bump. Whether that bump will last until 2023 (or whenever the next parliamentary election is) remains to be seen.
It is probably the AKP will remain the largest force in parliament, but if they only get something like 35% of the vote and CHP gets 30%, there is no way the AKP dominate parliament like they have since 2002. That would prove difficult for Erdogan and his increasingly autocratic ways. He'd either cause the government to breakdown in paralysis, or attempt to establish himself as outright dictator. While it's possible he'd moderate and work out things with the opposition, everything he's demonstrated so far indicates he would not.
Chris
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