Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visits a section of a restored bridge, which was damaged during the military conflict between Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed separatists, in the frontline town of Stanytsya Luhanska, on November 20.
RFE: Ukraine’s Zelenskiy Names Four Key Issues For Upcoming Peace Summit on Donbas
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said he will advance four key issues during an upcoming four-way meeting with the leaders of Germany, France, and Russia on a potential peace settlement in the Donbas conflict.
While visiting the opening of a reconstructed bridge in the frontline town of Stanytsya Luhanske on November 20, Zelenskiy said the most important discussion point was conducting local and regional elections in territories that Kyiv doesn't currently control.
Holding elections "is one of the difficult ones because it has many components," he said.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: Ukraine President Zelenskiy's four conditions are basically this:
1) Local elections
2) Exchange of prisoners
3) Consequences to those who break the ceasefire
4) Control of the border
I do not think Moscow will disagree with these conditions. Neither will the Donbas leadership. They know that they will overwhelming win any election. Exchange of prisoners will benefit them. It is obvious that those who break a ceasefire should be punished. And control of the border can be returned once Ukraine President Zelenskiy fulfills his campaign promise and commitment to give autonomy to the region. The big problem that I see coming is what part of eastern Ukraine will be given autonomy. Russian-Ukrainians are the majority on the western side of the conflict zone, and they would want the same deal that their cousins will get in the Donbas region. My understanding from my family, friends, and contacts in Kiev is that autonomy will be given to these Russian-Ukrainian dominated regions. But my primary concern is that opposition to any peace deal is very strong among Ukrainian nationalists. And even though they were completely trounced in the Presidential and parliamentary elections this year, they have made no secret that they will do everything in their power to disrupt these moves to end the war.
2 comments:
I've found most of the author's commentary on world affairs to be insightful, but whenever it comes to Ukraine and specifically Moscow's aggression in the Donbas, I just shake my head. While the author gives a good perspective into the ethnic Russian and Russophone minority in Ukraine, his continued denial of Moscow's ill well and nefarious practices is inexplicable. I can only explain it by the author having a massive blindspot due to his natural sympathies for his Russian family in Ukraine.
Moscow does not want a solution to the crisis. It wants to weaken Ukraine and suborn it to Russia. If Moscow gives up control of the border, it loses most of its influence over the Donbas because it cannot continue to supply its proxy army and send it reinforcements.
What Moscow wants is a situation where it will continue to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty. It needs to have an armed force it can control. It supports federalism in Ukraine because it gives it more opportunity to undermine Ukraine from within. But without its proxy army, its influence will wither and die.
There is a region why the Donbas is in civil war, but not Kharkhov or Dnipro or Odessa despite them also being areas of Russian speaking Ukrainians. It is because only in the Donbas was Moscow successful in establishing a proxy armed force.
Moscow may say it will accept Ukrainian control of the border, but it's just a lie. Because if Moscow accepts actual Ukrainian control of the border, it loses. Moscow wants Ukraine to give autonomy first so it can get what it wants, but then will work to prevent Ukraine from ever getting control of the border.
Zelensky will fail because Moscow will never give up control of the border. It is just a question whether Zelensky acts like a sucker and grant autonomy and gain nothing, or if he insists on border control first and therefore Moscow refuses. So far, it seems like Zelensky insists on the latter.
But there won't be an end to the conflict because Moscow doesn't want it.
Ukraine will need another ten years of reform before it gets strong enough that Moscow accepts the correlation of local forces against it and agrees to a real deal. Until then, the tragedy will continue.
Chris
Don't call them "nationalists." Call them what they are, that is, Nazis. They all trace their lineage back to Stepan Bandera, the OUN-UPA and all of the other collaborators of World War II.
Post a Comment