Zero Hedge/Mish Talks: Number-Crunching The Polls Points To Big Tory Win In UK Election
Martin Baxter's Electoral Calculus Model estimates a Tory majority of 46 based on opinion polls from 02 Dec 2019 to 07 Dec 2019, sampling 10,827 people.
I arrive at 10,827 by discarding the Savanta ComRes poll highlighted in yellow.
Baxter did not discard that poll out of bias but rather because there were two overlapping polls by the same pollster and he used the most recent one.
I calculated the averages excluding Opinium because Opinium looks silly in relation to everything else. The net effect is to toss the highest and lowest and keep average the rest. This is a frequently used method to discard outliers.
Read more ....
WNU editor: My gut .... and it just my gut .... tells me that the Tories are going to do even better than what the polls are saying. Not everyone has this point of view .... UK's Johnson now less certain of election victory: YouGov (Reuters).
1 comment:
Agree.
And to a degree, I think this is happening.
Because Labour supporters are so...aggeressive, people are saying what they think others want them to hear.
The Bradley Effect
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
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