DNYZ: The Worst-Case Estimate for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month about what might happen if the new coronavirus gained a foothold in the United States. How many people might die? How many would be infected and need hospitalization?
One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.
Read more ....
Update #1: The Worst-Case Estimate for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths (The New York Times)
Update #2: Worst-case coronavirus scenario: 214 million Americans infected, 1.7 million dead (MIT Technology Review)
WNU Editor: A very sobering read.
10 comments:
More fear mongering. Good job folks. (Sarcasam off.) Probable death toll from the virus itself will likely ultimately be around 10K world wide. Maybe the powers that be need a higher toll to justify their actions. If so, I'm sure they can arrange it.
"As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."
So some people inherit early.
Or the government no longer has as many social security or medicare expenses.
Is that cruel to say? Not really. Not after all the political jockeying by politicians, rent seeking by certain medical professionals and scientists, and fear mongering by journalists.
Point is that life will go on pretty much as before. It will go on after all the scare mongering.
There was a recent article (last 6 months of a British military linguist with 20 or so years of experience saying that AI programs were taking over her job.
We have feeds to automate news articles being sent to out computers. Why not automate a little further and news stories that link to previous 'article' and link to statistics (govt. and non-govt.) 100% of the time. So that it is seamless. The sort of dashboard that a CEO, bureaucrat or congressman sees. Get rid of journalists.
My thinking has been trending this way for a several months. Corona flu is the final nail in the coffin for me when it comes to the majority of so called journalists.
Poster: if you have a job in texas why are you posting at this hour, nonstop to tell us all is not so bad?
Bposter the death toll will be much much higher world wide. We still haven't seen the peak yet and the US population alone is very much at risk. Why? Older population than China and larger risk groups (diabetes etc)
Sure sure I know the argument"we've got the best doctors in the world".. such BS but OK. I'm hoping I'm wrong and you're right. Wish you in the US all the best - must work together and avoid politics
"the US population alone is very much at risk. Why? Older population than China and larger risk groups (diabetes etc)."
They don't have diabetics in China. They do not have obese people in China.
"The number of people with diabetes in China is estimated to be 1 in 10 out of Chinese adult.
Compared with the UK, where diabetes affects about 1 in 20 adults, the state of diabetes in China is alarming."
In the US 1 in 10 are diabetic (9.4%).
China's Aging Population Is a Major Threat to Its Future | Time Magazine
"In 2017, in China, the proportion of Chinese citizens above 60 years old obtained 17.3 percent"
"Since 1900, the percentage of Americans age 65 and over has more than tripled (from 4.1% in 1900 to 15.6% in 2017)"
The population age and diabetes rate is about the same for China and the USA.
Please tell me you are not that stupid to just run off at the mouth like you just did. Please tell me you are a troll.
Assfuck
A newly discovered Russian-led network of professional trolls was being outsourced to Ghanaian and Nigerian operatives, according to Facebook and Twitter, who removed the network’s accounts on Thursday.
The network was small: just 49 Facebook accounts, 85 Instagram accounts and 71 Twitter accounts in question. But it marks the first time that a Russian information operation targeting the US has been found to be run from Africa.
Nathaniel Gleicher, Facebook’s head of security policy, said the company believes it was such a small network because it was disrupted in the early stages of building its audience. It was, Gleicher said, “operated by local nationals – some wittingly and some unwittingly – in Ghana and Nigeria on behalf of individuals in Russia.
“A lot of people think that goes away in April, with the heat,” President Trump said on February 10. “It’s going to disappear one day, it’s like a miracle,” he said over two weeks later. “It will go away, just stay calm,” he insisted as recently as this past Tuesday. Many of his supporters declared the epidemic a hoax, or insisted it was nothing more than the regular flu — even though it is estimated to be at least ten times as lethal. Yes, these denialist declarations are driven by tribal politics. But they exist beyond the Trump cult, and are also propelled by the ancient human resistance to accepting that our normal lives are over, that we live in a new paradigm, and there is no escaping it.
It’s like watching a movie when the screen suddenly and unaccountably slips out of focus, or keeps freezing for a few seconds, and you wait for the reel to be corrected, or get back to where it was, but it doesn’t.
This coronavirus is new to our species—it is “novel.” It spreads more easily than the flu—“exponentially,” as we now say—and is estimated to be at least 10 times as lethal.
Testing in the U.S. has been wholly inadequate; history may come to see this as the great scandal of the epidemic. “Anybody that needs a test gets a test; they’re there, they have the tests, and the tests are beautiful,” as the president said last weekend, is on a par with “If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor” as a great, clueless lie.
"This coronavirus is new to our species—it is “novel.” It spreads more easily than the flu—“exponentially,” as we now say—and is estimated to be at least 10 times as lethal."
- Asshole 5:36
Do you know the concept of DNA?
You will probably respond in the affirmative. Although I have my doubts that you really understand.
Do you know the concept of a metric space?
Now take those 2 concepts together and tell em that this corona virus is novel.
If you studied permutations and combinations in middle school, you would have never said such a Barfsack Ocrumba thing.
Next dumbass thing you will say is that the number of corona viruses is uncountably infinite. The best part of you ran down your mother's leg.
“It’s going to disappear one day, it’s like a miracle,” he said over two weeks later. “It will go away, just stay calm,” he insisted as recently as this past Tuesday.
That is an observation based on experience of past flu's going back decades.
Also like WU stated it might come back again with colder weather in the fall. That too is based on observation.
An extra 3 to 5 months will enable herd immunity to be built up and vaccines to be developed. So the next winter might not be so bad.
Now don't you feel stupid? You should.
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