Business Insider: As the coronavirus spreads, one study predicts that even the best-case scenario is 15 million dead and a $2.4 trillion hit to global GDP
* The coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China, has killed nearly 3,300 people and infected more than 95,000. The virus, which causes a disease known as COVID-19, has spread to at least 81 countries.
* While much is still unknown about the virus, a group of Australian experts have estimated that the virus may have severe consequences on global gross domestic product.
* New modeling from The Australian National University looks at seven scenarios of how the outbreak might affect the world's wealth, ranging from low severity to high severity.
* In the low-severity model — or best-case scenario of the seven — ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million.
As coronavirus cases continue to rise around the world, a group of Australian experts predict that the economic impact of the disease in the best-case scenario may total $2.4 trillion in lost global gross domestic product.
The coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China, has killed nearly 3,300 people and infected more than 95,000. The virus, which causes a disease known as COVID-19, has spread to at least 81 countries.
More than 150 cases have been reported in the US, including 11 deaths across two states. The World Health Organization has declared the outbreak an international public-health emergency and warned that the window of opportunity to contain it is narrowing.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: The above report is the best-case scenario. One can only imagine the worst-case scenario.
17 comments:
Every year since taking office, Trump has asked for deep cuts into research on emerging diseases – including the CDC’s small center on emerging and “zoonotic” infectious diseases that jump the species barrier from animals to humans. The new coronavirus is just the latest example of these threats.
The CDC’s program focuses on infectious diseases ranging from foodborne illnesses to anthrax and Ebola. It manages laboratory, epidemiologic, analytic and prevention programs, and collaborates with state and local health departments, other federal government agencies, industry and foreign ministries of health.
In 2018, Trump tried to cut $65 million from this budget – a 10% reduction. In 2019, he sought a 19% reduction. For 2020, he proposed to cut federal spending on emerging infectious and zoonotic diseases by 20%. This would mean spending $100 million less in 2020 to study how such diseases infect humans than the U.S. did just two years ago.
China seems to have managed to get a handle on the situation and certain other countries seem to have a handle on what's going on.
Two of President Donald Trump’s top aides each described the coronavirus outbreak as “contained” on Friday morning, even as the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. exceeded 200 and test kits remained in short supply.
“It is being contained,” White House counselor Kellyanne Conway told reporters, challenging a questioner who suggested it isn’t. “Are you a doctor aware of it not being contained?”
The number of cases of the virus in the U.S. has more than doubled since Monday, to 240, Johns Hopkins University reported on Friday. There are hotspots in Santa Clara, California; outside Seattle; and in Westchester County, New York. There have been 14 deaths, most of them in King County, Washington, outside Seattle.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced Friday there are 33 cases in his state, an increase of 11 from Thursday.
Tallying the number of active U.S. cases is impossible at the moment because many people may be sick but undiagnosed, owing in part to a shortage of test kits. As those kits are distributed, health officials expect the numbers of confirmed cases to rise.
The Trump administration’s coronavirus response coordinator, Deborah Birx, said on Thursday: “We will see more positive tests.”
‘Relatively Contained’
While Birx didn’t address whether the outbreak had been “contained,” Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, echoed Conway. He said in a CNBC interview on Friday that the outbreak “looks relatively contained,” adding that “the vast majority of Americans are not at risk for this virus.”
For Whom the Bell Tolls: American Geezer
The hysterical overreaction to this is the biggest threat. It's already started. Multiple events have already been cancelled very likely resulting in huge costs to the economy.
The virus itself is unlikely to cost the economy 2.4 trillion UNLESS we count the loss to the healthcare industry of the people who do die from the virus as they will no longer be paying customers of the healthcare industry. Even that wouldn't likely come to that large number. Based upon what is happening now I can see the overreaction to this causing the is kind of damage.
As an additional benefit to totalitarians, they can use this as cover to purge those they don't like. Simply mark them down as having the disease, cite a "positive test," subject them to draconian quarantines, and make them disappear never to be heard from again. The virus provides excellent cover!!
Should this actually become a dire situation our hysterical overreaction to this on the front end may make it harder to contain on the back end. Not wanting to be subjected to draconian quarantines for all for a disease that doesn't currently pose the threat the hype says it does people who suspect they may be infected aren't going to self report or visit a healthcare professional.
The "experts" have expressed that it is "puzzling" that the virus isn't affecting children. The experts needn't be confused if they would allow themselves to not be blinded by ideology. Thus far the virus kills people who are elderly with underlying health conditions or those with compromised immune systems. Thus far those who are relatively healthy, should they become infected, would be expected to have mild to moderate symptoms and to fully recover.
For all of the events that have been cancelled, Providing they don't promote or condone illegal or unethical activities I would be willing to offer my home city of Conroe, TX just north of Houston as a venue for these events. I'm confident we have the capacity to serve as host cities, our citizens are hospitable, and our hardworking people could use the extra revenue!! We're open for business!! While, yes there is always a risk of getting sick, people get the flu and common colds every year, sensible precautions can be taken and the net economic benefit would easily outweigh the costs.
Let's be clear. The COVID 19 will have a death toll. It will be mainly confined to the elderly (geezers). I am getting up there myself. Thing is you cannot fight entropy forever. You prolong life with the most extreme measures by beggaring your grandchildren and maybe that is what the geezer class wants.
B Powter,
I would suspect that COVID-19 would be a complicating factor for some child born with cystic fibrosis or something like that. But that is not the majority of children.
Posrter! shame on you
you badmouth trained professionals and while wise leaders are closing events to avoid crowds you are encouraging them...what is your game? Ah chaos in America
here is the nutter you and Putin support
President Donald Trump attempted to reassure Americans about the competence of the response to the coronavirus outbreak.
Trump traveled to the Center for Disease Control in Atlanta, where he spoke to reporters.
The president claimed doctors were surprised he was so informed about the virus, Trump said, despite the fact he has been repeatedly fact-check for being misinformed about COVID-19.
Trump argued he has "a natural ability" to understand the science that allows him knowledge without education.
https://twitter.com/EamonJavers/status/1236055628956815360
Trump muses that he could’ve become a research scientist instead of president.
that old geezer might well be someone's grandfather or mother or relative and you laugh and the elderly dying?
sound like Poster, who says we do not know why the young seem immune. Well we DO know though he either lies or is a moron
Anon (7:25PM),
I suspect it could be. I'd need to do specific research on cystic fibrosis but it does seem those with underlying medical conditions are the ones most adversely affected by this.
"B Powter" I suspect this was a typo. I've done it.:-)
Anon 7:48
"Shame on me?" Putin has nothing to do with this particular topic. You do seem to be allowing him to live rent free in your head.
Very respectfully I'm not the one seeing "chaos in America." The irrational overeacthion to Choronavirus is doing plenty of that. Examples of this abound.
Anon 7:49
You didn't fully read my post. I said the experts have expressed confusion on why the virus doesn't seem to be affecting children. The answer seems obvious. Childrens' immune systems are strong and healthy. This is not the case for those who are most adversely affected by this.
Why can't the experts get it? I think it is ideology or something nefariou . Right now I lean in the direction of ideology. There has been much written about how ideology can make smart people do dumb things.
Yes, this elderly person is someone's loved one. I did NOT laugh at this. Perhaps you thought by making such a slanderous accusation it might stick. Again, read the post.
Any death is a tragedy and the reality is wr must all die sometime of something. Our elderly loved ones are more likely to die in an automobile accident than from this disease.
So if the did a 20% budget cut. That means they still got 80%. Fuck the worlds ending jesus christ god dam trump and budget cuts.
Oops they*
AZuLike
What cuts? The ones that happened in your head?
What CDC budget curts?
Wtf you talking about? Read please as I was being sarcastic.
AZuLike
I'll plead guilty. I am getting older and my sarcasm meter must be broken. They say that happens to older people.
Sarcasm wasted on older people who take comments too literally
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/12094275/Sarcasm-wasted-on-older-people-who-take-comments-too-literally.html
Mea Culpa & no sarcasm meant with that mea culpa.
More on this "chaos in America." Alrwzfy due to the overblown hype we've had at least two major events canceled. A major body building competition involving about 200,000 has been reported canceled in Ohio and a major artist convention in Austin has been canceled. These actions costs untold millions to the local economies. Keep in mind these can have a ripple effect across the economy as a whole. Houston near where I live is having a major oil and gas exposition where VIPs come from around the world. Thus far it hasn't been canceled. Generally Houstonians aren't given to such panicky hysteria. This isn't worth wrecking our entire economy over.
Recently we've learned that there is a shortage of testing kits. Apparently the ones initially sent out were defective in some way. The hysterical overreaction to this may have caused people to rush through the process.
"Chaos in America indeed and NOT caused by me. The hysterical overreaction is ti blame!!
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