Construction work on Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance dam in Guba woreda, in the Ethiopian region of Benishangul-Gumuz. Photograph: Tiksa Negeri/Reuters
The Guardian: 'It'll cause a water war': divisions run deep as filling of Nile dam nears
Despite Egypt’s fears of ‘hydro hegemony’ and concerns it will worsen water shortages in Sudan, Ethiopia’s controversial dam project is close to fruition.
From his office in central Khartoum, Ahmed al-Mufti prepares every day for what he believes is the water war to come.
This conviction led Mufti, a prominent human rights lawyer and water expert, to quit the Sudanese delegation that is negotiating Nile water issues with Egypt and Ethiopia.
He was angry at Ethiopia’s decision to build the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam (Gerd), a $4.5bn (£3.6bn) mega-project on the Blue Nile river that runs from Lake Tana in Ethiopia to meet the White Nile in Khartoum, flowing north into Egypt. The dam project will affect water levels downstream, depending on how fast Ethiopia fills its 74bn cubic metre reservoir.
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WNU Editor: If the Nile River dries up you can take this to the bank. A war will break out between Egypt and Ethiopia over water.
23 comments:
Ethiopia would lose. Egypt has too many people for Ethiopia to prevail. The Egyptians have had a lot of assistance with weapons research going back to the 1980s by the French. there is not enough time and distance to work in Ethiopia's favor to prevent Egypt from bringing its power to bear. Ethiopia's only hope is that Egypt does not have the logistical infrastructure to bring sufficient forces to bear.
Sudan, Eritrea, and some groups in Somalia would pile on.
Ethiopia would win. Unless there was an alliance between Egypt and Sudan. Egyptian Air force cannot reach Ethiopia. And the dam is well defended. And to get a Egyptian army there the supply train would be very long. Egyptian army is full of corruption and has never performed well in the field. I will try to find the reports I read on this and post them here.
I do not know Blackdog. I am ignorant of Egypt logistical capabilities.
I think Egypt has better military hardware than Ethiopia. For instance, Gust Avrakotos saw a French technician working on Egyptian air to air missile back in the 1980s, That is anecdotal, but my point is that Egypt has had a longer lead time and spent more money on building up their military.
I would read the reports you find on Egyptian military with interest.
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/egypts-water-security-problem/
What’s more, Egyptian Rafale and F-16 Block 52 fighters lack the range to reach the GERD since the Egyptian air force does not have air refueling capability. Even if they reach the dam, it’s unclear if Egyptian pilots have the skill needed to negotiate the elaborate missile defense systems that protect the construction site, let alone destroy its thick concrete walls. Egypt has a large and well-armed standing army and a modern navy that includes two Mistral Helicopter warships and fours Gowind-class corvettes, but they are ill-suited to attack the GERD.
For Egypt, diplomacy is the only option available, even though its bargaining power is limited. The GERD’s construction is approaching completion, and Abiy has the support of the upstream riparian states, as well as Sudan, which opposed the Arab League’s draft resolution supporting Egypt in its current dispute with Ethiopia. Egypt cannot count on the support of the U.S., which has cautiously stressed the need for mutual respect among the Nile Valley states.
From the link geopoliticalfutures
The Egyptians have one thing that may make a difference, The Canal. It would be hard for the great powers to ignore that, but they might.
I think the west would really frown on that threat. That would be like black mail. Gains you no friends,about the same as it did the Turkish Prime Minister when he threatened to unleash the immigrants on Europe. I think maybe Ethiopia could be blockaded by the Arabs ( Ethiopia is landlocked now )but I think Kenya would be a back door .
I agree with what you have said. I bring up the Canal as it is an unique asset for Egypt and they have used it before in geo-political struggles, with decidedly mixed results. Yes it would be seen as an act of blackmail, but the loss of the Nile is the end of Egypt. As a guess I think the dam will be completed and used, but Ethiopia will ensure enough down stream for Egypt to remain viable. As long as the dam exists it will be a flashpoint.
What if Egypt transferred troops to Eritrea and and drove up the A2 Highway?
Maybe the Egyptian could move troops up A1 as well. It would be costly, but Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and UAE would pony up.
Going through Ad Damazin Al Qadarif in Sudan might be possible, but the state (throughput) of the road do not look good.
Tigre province and Orome provinces wanted to separate in from Ethiopia and there were insurgencies there around 1991.
Egypt would surely stir up trouble for Ethiopia with Eritrea, Tigre, ORome , Somalia and Sudan
Ethiopia use to be a Roman ally. Sometime after the 6th century they lost their coast to the Muslim/Arabs.
You cannot starve 80 million people in Egypt and not expect a reaction. The entire Arab and Muslim world would be against them.
https://apnews.com/dafdf4af720a147f97aa1ce18f6ca7b6
www.ethiovisit.com/ethiopia/ethiopia-regions-and-cities.html
Yes agreed.
All good points. I was gonna look up when they lost the coast thank you for that. I don’t think the Geopolitics of the region are set yet.
Lol, the geo-politics of the region have been unsettled as far back as is known and will be unsettled for the foreseeable future.
I'm not laughing at you Blackdog, just at the area. I think it was PJ O'Rourke who correctly named it "God's Monkey House"!
No offense taken. I think this is one of the better discussions ever on here. No trolls calling people names and trying to scream everybody else down because they’re not exactly agreeing with each other. I was thinking geopolitics-when you mentioned Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE. I don’t think those stars align. I think Saudi Arabia is trying to cut off Bahrain from the peninsula by digging a ditch across it. Like you said a big unsettled mess!
Oh, that wasn't me who mentioned those countries, it was another Anon who knows a lot more about this area than I do. I'd pay attention to what he has to say. I'm just a gadfly who listens more than I talk, for good reasons!
It is Qatar and not Bahrain, but you point remains valid and well taken.
Saudi Arabia may dig canal to turn Qatar into an island
Still it was in the news a year ago. Most people do not remember current events beyond 2 weeks. So that is a very good memory.
I do not know what the Qatari royals and Saudi royals do not get along. I will have to look it up.
I do know that the Saudis have paid their debts. The Saudi family spent time in exile in Kuwait. Then they took Riyadh back. When Kuwait was invaded in 1990, they remembered the sanctuary they had been given. That was part of it. Part of it was regular politics.
To remember everything And discuss everything about the region would take a whole book. And of course there are several out there. And this conversation started about Ethiopia. We I have traveled far . Good conversation thank you .
Wow awesome to see a genuine conversation about the post. Has been a long time coming.
Something that has not been considered, Iran and it's influence in the area.
Someone above mentioned the Arab world up in arms and this would be true as far as that could go. I mentioned the Canal and it's importance earlier, but if you're going to use that you must consider the "Red Sea" as part of the Canal. So in essence you have Arabic Muslim, Iranian Muslim, Ethiopian Christian, and US interests ( naval) all bordering the Canal. This all must be taken into account. There are only three seaways into and out of the Med, all three either bordered on or controlled by Muslim entities.
Didn’t Iran and the Yemen rebels try to disrupt traffic going in and out of the Red Sea and the canal? That Didn’t last long. And I think Kenya’s is Ethiopia‘s back door to any blockade.
If Ethiopia has problems is Somalians or especially with AL Shabab, Kenya will side with Ethiopia. Kenya also has a Somali problem.
What could easily happen is Ethiopia placing itself in Irani influence. You can kind of count on Eritrea opposing anything "Ethiopian", but I wouldn't count on Kenya or Sudan.
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