Daily Mail: More than 5 million Americans will be infected with coronavirus and 290,000 will die by the end of July if social distancing isn't adhered to, according to COVID-19 model
* Forecast from University Of Pennsylvania's Wharton School model predicts COVID-19 cases will reach 5.4 million and death toll could be 290,000 by July 24
* Ominous forecast accounts for all states fully reopening without any social distancing measures
* In comparison, model predicts nearly 4.3 million cases and 230,000 deaths by July 24 if states reopen but individuals maintain their social distancing efforts
* Meanwhile, a separate model from the UMass Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence is projecting that deaths will surpass 113,000 by mid-June
* Currently, there are more than 1.5 million cases and over 92,000 deaths across the United States
Coronavirus infections could reach as high as 5.4 million in the US in the next two months and more than 290,000 Americans could die if social distancing isn't adhered to, according to a COVID-19 forecast model.
The ominous forecast from the University Of Pennsylvania's Wharton School model accounts for all states fully reopening without any social distancing measures.
In comparison, the model predicts nearly 4.3 million cases and 230,000 deaths by July 24 if states reopen but individuals maintain their social distancing efforts.
If states only partially reopen by lifting stay-at-home orders but social distancing measures are still adhered to, the model forecasts 3.1 million infections and 172,000 deaths.
Read more ....
Update Over 4 million in US will contract coronavirus if states fully reopen: Wharton mode (Yahoo News)
WNU Editor: The forecast from the University Of Pennsylvania's Wharton School is here .... Coronavirus Policy Response Simulator: Health and Economic Effects of State Reopenings (University of Pennsylvania).
6 comments:
I trust these models as far as I can throw them. More "Science and Data". Translation: More politics. Flexible statistics (models) used to justify any/all overreach to shut down the country. And which have been wrong every time.
The only thing missing from these models is, "Trump will have BLOOD on his hands if he opens up the country!"
Goebbels often reported the truth too.
At time he spoke the whole truth and nothing, but the truth. Other items he lied outright. Sometimes he spoke partial truths.
Has anyone looked under the hood of the Wharton "program" to see how it was coded, of it has any HEISENBUGS ready to explode, etc?
Psychologists p-hack.
Engineers use inefficient design of experiments to look at 1 variable at a time, which ignore variable interactions.
Both the engineers or psychologists can have MS's or PhD's. Just because you have one of those does not mean you can code correctly or do statistics.
In modeling you should have a a random seed list / random number generator for every variable.
There is the team.
https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/experts
Some have degressin statistics and data analysis.
On August 31st or mid-September we should be able to compare their prediction with what actually happened.
We shall see.
County health officials also ordered the company to develop a sequestration housing plan for workers who test positive, use rigorous screening procedures to keep sick workers from entering the facility and implement measures that allow for social distancing.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/25/meat-workers-safety-jbs-smithfield-tyson/
sequestration housing?
Why is the company providing housing at all?
Are they not paying enough so workers can get their own housing?
Maybe workers are not getting sick at work but sick in crowded company housing?
Maybe the companies do not pay enough to workers, but pay enough to US senators of both parties.
For instance, Utah needs brand new senators.
I’m filing a bunch of these articles. And the comments underneath them. My prediction. Not as bad as this prediction which is wide open economies. Some people will still social distance. And how they count the deaths will change like they did in Colorado.
"Only" 290,000 death? No, it's 2.9 billion death in America, and it doesn't matter if we don't have that much people.
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