In the midst of the constant up-and-down of coronavirus news, both from science and the markets, it’s easy to lose sight of the scariest scenario of them all: the one where there’s no magic bullet. In this entirely plausible situation, there would be no effective Covid-19 vaccine or transformative therapy; the combination of testing and contact tracing wouldn’t successfully suppress the outbreak; and herd immunity would come, if at all, only after millions of deaths around the world.
Even raising this possibility is a big downer. But the fact that an outcome is terrible doesn’t make it impossible.
Since the end of February, I’ve conducted some 20 interviews with epidemiologists and virologists like Marc Lipsitch, Angela Rasmussen, and Carl Bergstrom; economists like Paul Romer, Stefanie Stantcheva and Larry Summers; and leaders at top hospitals and experts on government agencies whose names you may not know, but whose life’s work is preparing for moments like this one. Despite getting expert answers to dozens of my questions, the one question I haven’t been able to get an answer for is this: Who, exactly, is planning for the nightmare scenario in which we never get a vaccine or a breakthrough treatment?
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WNU Editor: From the start of this pandemic, I have yet to read an article or see a report where a government is thinking of a worst-case scenario. It appears that no one wants to go there. Unfortunately, we may be approaching a time where people will have to start thinking of worst-case scenarios. Why my pessimism. Researchers are now discovering Covid-19 coronavirus mutations that would complicate any vaccine from being developed .... Coronavirus mutations: Scientists puzzle over impact (BBC), and they are still in the dark on what this may mean .... Many coronavirus mutations are circling the globe, but we don't know if any are more dangerous (USA Today).
Update: Here is one worst-case scenario .... What happens if a coronavirus vaccine is never developed? It has happened before (Rob Picheta, CNN).
14 comments:
"Researchers are now discovering Covid-19 coronavirus mutations that would complicate any vaccine from being developed "
There never has been a flu vaccine. There have been flu shots, but no flu vaccines.
If you received a H1N1 shot in 20010 and H1N1 comes around again in 2025, you will need another shot.
Heard a scientists on the other day. Maybe Jenny McCarthy has a point. If there is not safe amount of leaded paint young'uns can eat. Why is there a safe amount of mercury in vaccines?
What is the PEL of mercury in the body?
www.cdc.gov/niosh/npg/nengapdxg.html
I would say the media gas been scaring people on the worst cases scenario (NYC) for about the last 2 months.
NYC is not the worst case scenario.
The Democrats majorly fucked up in NYC with their resonance, but they can do much worse by accident and by design. It can get a lot worse.
Here is an unintended consequence of Democrat demanding a shut down. Trump is not for a shutdown. He never was. He is just trying to avoid a Fort Sumter event. It is why he calls his actions guidelines. It is the Democrats trying to stampeded everyone off a cliff, so they can feast off their flesh.
I can still count the number of dead from corona in my metropolitan statistical area with two (2) hands. They were all 70, 80 or 90 something. Most all of them in Long term care
(LTC) facilities or nursing homes.
Damning facts about New York Democrats:
- They just now starting cleaning the subways ever night as of 5/5/2020. They found a dead homeless person on a subway car and had no idea how long he had been dead. Good Job Democrats. You showed how much you cared.
- The Democrats forced nursing homes to take corona patients.
- Patients are getting substandard, criminal care in New York hospitals.
De Blasio and Cuomo will have to answer for this.
In France they said COVID-19 was in Paris in December. Surveillance obviously failed. It could have been in Western Europe and the US since November or early December 2019. No one knew until April how early it entered. So just how deadly is it.
How many bad instruction for hijacking a cell can you put int 26.4 to 31.7 kilobases?
Fun Fact:
IF you want to cut your risk of dying from COVID 19, do not be obese like Governor MOOBS (TM) of the donkey party.
Cuomo Gives People Another Reason to Hate New York: He'll Tax Coronavirus Volunteers
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/bryan-preston/2020/05/06/cuomo-gives-people-another-reason-to-hate-new-york-hell-tax-coronavirus-volunteers-n388520
Code Review of Ferguson’s Model
"The code. It isn’t the code Ferguson ran to produce his famous Report 9. What’s been released on GitHub is a heavily modified derivative of it, after having been upgraded for over a month by a team from Microsoft and others. This revised codebase is split into multiple files for legibility and written in C++, whereas the original program was “a single 15,000 line file that had been worked on for a decade” (this is considered extremely poor practice)."
Ferguson must have learned coding before the 1990s. You cannot code this way and pass a coding class in an entry level course at a good community college.
So Trump is suppose to execute Fauci's recommendations/orders (Cuz Fauci is the executive?). Meanwhile Fauci is taking some cues from Ferguson who is a 5th rate coder if that and a hypocrite, who breaks lockdown to commit adultery with a married woman.
Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx Used Imperial College Model — NOW CONFIRMED AS A COMPLETE FRAUD — To Persuade President Trump to Lock Down Entire US Economy!
Seriously? Just watch CNN. You're treated to the wort case scenario every day. Doomers doomsaying. The only thing is that they're hoping for it.
What is it with your doom and gloom WNU, you sound like Drudge now?
Could just be scared. He is 60s or 70s and his other is in her 90s. They are in a higher risk group.
yesterday in New hampshire 19 MORE DEATHS WERE REPORTED.......
Just one problem- all 19 were in Long term care facilities. Covid 19 is an overblown scandal. Older folks stay home, be creful. Although the latest news from NYC has 63% of the deaths were from people STAYING INDDORS!!!!
Get the heck outside, reopen the country and stop the foolishness. FLU deaths were nearly 60,000 this season, and the CDC stopcollecting flu stats on April 4, yes that would raise flu death numbers as compared to Covid, what a fraud.
HUGE UPDATE: Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx Used Imperial College Model — NOW CONFIRMED AS A COMPLETE FRAUD — To Persuade President Trump to Lock Down Entire US Economy!
People form Microsoft and other countries re rewriting the aldulterer fraud's block coding. They are attempting to make it look professional.
Neil Ferguson and a few other Brits do not know how to code well. The coding is not modular, object oriented. They were using modular programming in the 1960s. The code provided by the Imperial college is shit.
Code Review of Ferguson’s Model
Let's deal with what we can deal with, and not waste time on situations completely beyond our control.
"They (The Imperial College) know their code can’t withstand scrutiny, so they hid it
until professionals had a chance to fix it,
but the damage from over a decade of amateur hobby programming is so extensive
that even Microsoft was unable to make it run right."
This is the code Fauci trusted. Because he does his due diligence and works 16 hours a day.
[Which leads me to believe that all Fauci does is politic and does not delegate. Attends a one shit load of meetings though.]
Apparently, coding a decent program is beyond our control
Being honest about the programs multitudinous flaws is beyond our control.
Fauci reviewing the program, which he is cited, is beyond his control.
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