Deutsche Bank: There’s A One-In-Three Chance Of A ‘Massive’ Disaster That Could Be Worse Than COVID-19 In The Next Decade

Market Watch: There’s a one-in-three chance of a ‘massive’ disaster that could be worse than COVID-19, says Deutsche Bank

After Tuesday’s rally on better-than-expected retail sales figures and an encouraging study of a drug to treat coronavirus patients, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.05% has rallied 40% from its closing low and is down just 8% from its February peak.

Clearly, disasters aren’t necessarily devastating to financial markets. That’s worth bearing in mind when considering a new report from Deutsche Bank that looked at the next massive tail risk for markets.

Analysts, led by Henry Allen, say there is at least a one-in-three chance that at least one of four major tail risks will occur within the next decade: a major influenza pandemic killing more than two million people; a globally catastrophic volcanic eruption; a major solar flare; or a global war. (The current COVID-19 pandemic has killed 443,765 globally already.)

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WNU Editor: The four major risks that Deutsche Bank is flagging for this 33% are the following .... a major influenza pandemic killing more than two million people; a globally catastrophic volcanic eruption; a major solar flare; or a global war. The odds increase if the time-frame is stretched to two decades .... If the time frame is two decades, then there is a 56% chance of one of these disasters.

No mention of climate change.