Zero Hedge: Deep European Recession Forecast For 2020
In its Summer Forecast published today, the European Commission downgraded its own projection from earlier in the year, making for an even grimmer outlook for the EU economy in 2020. The -7.4 percent contraction originally expected has been reassessed to -8.3 percent.
In the EC press release, the following context was given:
"The EU economy will experience a deep recession this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, despite the swift and comprehensive policy response at both EU and national levels. Because the lifting of lockdown measures is proceeding at a more gradual pace than assumed in our Spring Forecast, the impact on economic activity in 2020 will be more significant than anticipated."
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WNU Editor: This forecast does not take into consideration of a second coronavirus wave.
1 comment:
In the US at least, with the twin obsessions of testing even those who don't have symptoms or whose symptoms are so mild they never would have sought medical help it all but guarantees that not only will the first "wave" be magnified but that new "waves" will keep coming relentlessly. Throw in the obsession that the federal government along with the states and locals have with lockdowns and one wonders if it will ever end.
Any recession was/is entirely self inflicted. Keep everything open and only intervene where a local hospital system is about to be overwhelmed. In Harris County TX near where I live the local system has a problem but this is because dealing with chronic issues were put off during "lockdown" because people did not want to go the hospital. Now these situations are worse requiring significant hospitalizations and combined with COVID-19 there's where the problem is. In other words, without the hysterical overreaction to COVID-19 we don't have this problem now!!
I think Brazil has/had the right idea. Don't shut down segments of the economy and allow herd immunity to develop. By "locking down" we do not stop the infection from spreading. All that is accomplished is to delay it.
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