IHME Model Predicts 410,000 Americans Could Die Of COVID-19 By The End Of The Year

He fears the public will let their guard down this weekend given infections have been declining nationally in the last two months.

Daily Mail: IHME model predicts 410,000 Americans could die of COVID-19 by the end of the year if people don't continue to wear masks - as health experts warn Labor Day will determine how prevalent the virus is in the fall

* The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation revised its forecast model on Friday to predict that deaths from COVID-19 will reach 410,000 by the end of the year
* Epidemiologists said that deaths could be reduced by about 30 percent if the majority of Americans wore masks but warned that mask-wearing is already declining across the country
* Deaths have been declining nationally now for more than a month and are currently average about 850 a day
* Health experts have warned that the Labor Day holiday weekend will likely set the stage for what is to come in the fall amid the ongoing pandemic
* The US, which has now surpassed 6.15 million infections, has been averaging about 41,000 new COVID-19 cases per day for the past week but are still rising in some Midwestern and Southern states
* Dr William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University, said Labor Day had the potential to be an 'accelerator weekend' given infections are still rising in some states

Health experts are warning that behaviors this Labor Day weekend will determine if there will be a COVID-19 spike in the fall - as a new forecast model is predicting that more than 410,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 by January if people don't continue to wear masks.

The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation revised its forecast model on Friday to predict that deaths from COVID-19 will reach 410,000 by the end of the year.

That figure is more than double the current death toll of 186,800. The model predicts that deaths could also soar to 3,000 per day in December.

Epidemiologists said that deaths could be reduced by about 30 percent if the majority of Americans wore masks but warned that mask-wearing is already declining across the country.

The death rate projected by the IHME model, which has been cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force, would more than triple the current death rate of some 850 per day.

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Update #1: U.S. coronavirus deaths projected to more than double to 410,000 by January (Reuters)
Update #2: Key coronavirus forecast predicts over 410,000 total U.S. deaths by Jan. 1: ‘The worst is yet to come’ (CNBC)

WNU Editor: WHO is predicting 1.9 million worldwide deaths by the end of 2020 .... The Latest: Model projects 1.9M more deaths by end of 2020 (AP).