WNU Editor: The above analysis is right. Azerbaijan did surprise Armenia with their offensive to seize Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan's military is also better equipped and supported, and if reports that Turkey is actively and directly supporting Azerbaijan are true, Armenia is in a losing position. Targeting Azerbaijan's oil and gas infrastructure is going to get everyone's attention, Moscow's included. My prediction. Moscow has no desire to get involved in this war. They are going to let it burn for a few more weeks. As for Azerbaijan. They now have a choice. Escalate and continue the war knowing too well that they gas and oil infrastructure are now primary targets. to put it bluntly. Its destruction will set back Azerbaijan's finances and economy for years.Fantastic map from @LukeDCoffey. Armenia is losing in Nagorno-Karabakh, so why did it escalate? My guess: it hopes to throw Azerbaijan off of its game, which is a patient war of attrition based on drones, not ground maneuver; and it hopes to trigger Russian intervention. https://t.co/bPZACFqoMb
— Fiery but peaceful Mike (@Doranimated) October 4, 2020
Sunday, October 4, 2020
Armenia Has Escalated The War Against Azerbaijan
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Azerbaijan has its eyes on Western Iran as well. There are a lot of ethnic Azeris there.
The dynasty before the Shah Reza Pahlavi was the Qajar and they are Turks like the Azeris. 16% of Iran is ethnic Azeri. Azerbaijan wants a big chunk of Iran.
Maybe Russian cannot afford to get involved. Maybe it is a polyglot paper tiger.
IF Russia gets involved what happens in Tatarstan, Bakvush, Chechnya, Ossetia, Dagestan, ...
Armenia's offensive. Go for the weak spots and hit'em where it hurts.
Russia won't let Armenia fall, but its potential for intervention is not limited to an armed attack against Azerbaijan.
They could provide massive military aid to Armenia to bolster its armed forces.
They could send "mercenaries" like the Wagner Group directly to Armenia.
They could offer to move its embassy to Jerusalem and convince their proxies to do the same in exchange for Israel suspension of its arms trade with Azerbaijan or even joining the voluntary embargo.
It could broker an acceptable UN Security Council Resolution and possibly send in peacekeeping troops to enforce the status quo.
These steps are not without costs, but could stabilize the situation in favor of Armenia.
In a long term war, Armenia loses. But unless Azerbaijan can advance drastically in a short time (like Israel did in its wars against the Arabs), then international diplomacy could erode, erase, or prevent any of its real or potential gains.
Chris
If Russia wants to put Erdagon in his place, this is an opportunity.
If Putin slapped Erdagon down most American would applaud it and any polls above 45% that would be anti-Putin will be form manufactured hysteria from the press and DNC.
1) People hate nationalistic Turkey and its strongman Erdagon.
2) Armenia is Christian and did not start the war.
#2 does not matter much to the Left coast. In fact they hate Armenia, but they will have to question if they want to spend their political capital there.
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