Joe Biden listens to vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris speak during a campaign event at a carpenters union in Phoenix, Arizona, October 8. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
* Opinium/Guardian poll finds Biden ahead by 57-40 margin
* Biden leads on healthcare, the economy and race relations
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump has surged to a record 17 points as the US election enters its final sprint, an Opinium Research and Guardian opinion poll shows.
Some 57% of likely voters intend to vote for Biden, while just 40% say they will vote for the incumbent president, the survey shows.
The 17-point gap is even bigger than than 57%-41% margin found by CNN earlier this month.
It is just short of the lead in the popular vote that Ronald Reagan enjoyed in his second landslide victory in 1984. Four years later, Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis led George HW Bush by 17 points only to suffer defeat, but that poll was taken in July so Bush had ample time to recover.
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WNU Editor: The Guardian does not provide the methodology on how they did this poll. According to Rasmussen's Daily Tracking poll, 47% approve of President Trump's performance. At the same time in his run for re-election, President Obama's approval was at 48%.
12 comments:
How come pollsters can get away with the craziest predictions, don't have to answer to calls about their methodology and don't go to prison for election interference? Must be nice to be a Democrat leaning, CCP paid for pollster
what they do is not illegal
when they fail in big way they often do explain why that happened
if this one is, according to you, wrong, then show us where and how and why.
You make fun of them. We laugh at you
Obviously both the Guardian and Rasmussen can't both be right or so it would seem. As Rasmussen has a relatively good track record, I would tend to go with Rasmussen over The Guardian.
Certainly 48% or 47% would be statistically in the margin of error so assuming Rasmussen is correct Trump and Obama have/had virtually identical popularity numbers at this time in their pesidencies. Normally those who approve would not vote for the other person. As such, Trump would have 47% locked down as of the time of the poll meaning he would only need to get 3.01% or so to "hold their noses" and vote for him to win the popular vote. Of course US presidential elections aren't decided on the popular vote.
For what it's worth I don't team Biden and his media supporters believe they're polls. How they thrown them in our faces incessantly reminds me of the Shakespeare line in Hamlet "thou doest protest much."
Liberals often think purposeful lying is moral, fun and a good thing to do.
Take Paragon of Virtue, Harry Reid said "He [Romney] didn't pay taxes for 10 years! Now, do I know that that's true? Well, I'm not certain, but obviously he can't release those tax returns. How would it look?"
"The problem with Reid's allegation? It's just not true. We know that, at least in 2011 and 2010, Romney did pay taxes. How do we know that? Because Romney released his tax returns for those years. In 2011, Romney paid $1.9 million in taxes; in 2010, he paid slightly more than $3 million in taxes." - Washington Post
>Not only does Reid not think he did anything wrong, he's actually proud that his lies might have helped cost Romney the election.
"Harry Reid still isn’t sorry for saying Mitt Romney doesn’t pay taxes"
Are you sure that nothing illegal was done? There is business contract law. Shareholders and customers of companies where employees engage n partisan politics to help their party, but it hurts the business's bottom line have grounds to sue.
A publicly traded polling company could charge higher rates and make more profit if their forecasts are accurate more of the time.
Stupid fucking troll cannot tell a lie effectively. Winter is coming. To the gulag with you.
POSTER: COMPARE RASMUSSEN TRACK RECORD WITH JUST ABOUT ANY OTHER ONE INSTEAD OF MAKING STUPID COMMENT
Anon (2:57),
Rasmussen came closer with regards to predicting the 2016 presidential result than most other pollsters so there's really nothing stupid about the comment. Also, they're non partisan and their track record predates 2016.
As to whom to trust, it is admittedly a judgment call and no one is perfect. At this time I'll go with Rasmussen over The Guardian. Maybe Rasmussen wrong this time and maybe the Guardian is right. The primary point is I don't think both can be right and the media IMHO is in "thou doest protest much" mode.
Parrot is flustered. He got his red alert email from the NY Times and a donation from Code Pink.
Time to put on the pussy hat and man ... err woman the barricades.
Wed Awert! Wed Awert! says the Pussy hat crowd.
COMPARE RASMUSSEN TRACK RECORD WITH JUST ABOUT ANY OTHER ONE
Actually I did. They were on the money 1/2 the time. Others were no better or worse.
Also the Republican Rassmussen left the polling company he started about 7 years ago. So when Dr. Pavlov or the DNC rings the bell or says Rassmussen you can quit foaming at the mouth.
Anon (6:12)
Maybe they only got it right 1/2 the time. I'd have to check every single one. On the big ones such as the 2016 presidential election they did much better than most. Also, keeping their political view out of it can only help increase their odds of being right.
Very respectfully it seems unlikely that both Rasmussen and The Guardian can be right and based upon prior records and the non partisan nature of Rasmussen I'll go with them at present. Maybe they're wrong this time. We shall find out soon enough. I must say Biden supporters seem rather uptight. The editor has picked up on this as well. I don't even think they believe polls like The Guardian.
From 2000 it was hit miss hit miss hit (2016), If I remember correctly. They did not get 2018 right. But I believe in California at least it was due to vote stuffing. All 7 recounts where Republicans lost their seat is not random. Rassmussen can be forgiven if they cannot predict steals.
Nice Post.
Also check this out
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