The latest 2020 election poll update has Joe Biden's lead slipping as he falls below 50% and GOP voters decide to stick with Donald Trump, IBD/TIPP finds.
IBD Editorial/TIPP: 2020 Election Poll: Donald Trump Narrows Gap As Joe Biden Support Falls Below Key Level, IBD/TIPP Data Show
Joe Biden's lead over Donald Trump has narrowed as Republican voters decide to stick with the president and the Democrat's support has fallen below 50%, today's IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll update finds.
The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll update shows the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 5.2 points, 48.7%-43.5%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 2.5%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 1.2%.
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WNU Editor: What is important in politics is optics and trend lines. And the trend lines look to be favorable for President Trump with the election now over two weeks away.
I mentioned this in the previous post, but it deserves repeating (see below updates).
Update: Rasmussen Daily Tracking is saying that 48% of likely voters approve of President Trump's performance (link here). President Obama was tracking a 50% approval rating at the same time in his campaign in 2012.
Update #2: The most accurate pollster for 2016 and 2018 is Robert C. Cahaly and he sees the following .... President Trump in the lead in Florida, Michigan, and Arizona. Only slightly behind in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If true, this will mean the re-election of President Trump.
7 comments:
and then, with trump a strong contender now, we get this post just below:
WNU Editor: When you have The Economist predicting this .... '9% chance' of winning electoral college (The Economist). It is then hard to believe that President Trump can win. So if the above Axios is accurate, that tells me that Trump's campaign team are convinced that they are going to lose Florida, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. States that they won in 2016. Is this possible? You tell me.
You have it both ways and that way you are always right
Update #2: The most accurate pollster for 2016 and 2018 is Robert C. Cahaly and he sees the following .... President Trump in the lead in Florida, Michigan, and Arizona. Only slightly behind in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If true, this will mean the re-election of President Trump.
Republicans were alarmed last week. Now they are just going through the routine of fire, counter fire, and hitting the deck.
Blogger links (like the one for is Robert C. Cahaly) are broken unfortunately. I think google messed up big
In the final days to register to vote, Republicans mostly won on those compared to Democrats registering with new voters even in liberal counties in Florida. Not saying Trump will win in places such as Miami-Date, but he could close the gap compared to 2016 due to Hispanics there freaking out about socialism.
Early voting/Mail in ballots (which should be dominated by Democrats due to them fearing going physically to the polls because of Coronavirus) is mostly flat/not the margins Democrats are expecting compared to Republicans who fear their ballots will be thrown in the trash and are not as scared of COVID-19 and are waiting to vote on Election Day.
Bottom line: It all comes down to a few states such as Florida, PA, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, and even Minnesota, Georgia, and Texas. Biden still likely wins the popular vote like Hillary did in 2016, perhaps even north of 5 points. If the margin is 2 or less, it's much more likely of a Trump Electoral College victory at that point.
Links have been repaired
Anon 1:41 PM
You are distorting my comment.
I said if the Economist post is correct, it would hard for Trump to win.
DUH!!!
And if Axios is accurate, of course the Trump team would be depressed.
That is why I use the word "if". Because there are a lot of "ifs" in this election.
DUH!!!
Now you are speaking like many Americans. And it is warranted.
My advice is don't do it too often. But every so often it is necessary.
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