* The CDC's national ensemble forecast uses 41 different independent models to create its own prediction
* The national ensemble predicts a total of 224,000 to 233,000 COVID-19 deaths reported by October 31
* It also predicts 2,800 to 6,800 new deaths will likely be reported during the week ending October 31
* More than 7.7 million Americans have already tested positive for the virus; the death toll stands at 214,573
* More than 56,000 new cases were reported across the US Thursday; the highest daily spike since August
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has forecast 233,000 COVID-19 deaths by the end of this month with up to 6,800 new fatalities in the last week of October alone.
In a report on its website the CDC writes: 'This week's national ensemble forecast indicates an uncertain trend in new COVID-19 deaths reported over the next four weeks and predicts that 2,800 to 6,800 new deaths will likely be reported during the week ending October 31, 2020.
'The national ensemble predicts that a total of 224,000 to 233,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.'
Read more ....
Update #1: U.S. COVID-19 cases hit two-month high, 10 states report record increases (Reuters)
Update #2: The US should expect 20,000 more coronavirus deaths by the end of the month, former CDC director says (CNN)
WNU Editor: Everyone I know around the world have resigned themselves that this pandemic is going to be with us until next year and maybe beyond. I also share this viewpoint. But while I am worried about the pandemic for the obvious health reasons, my biggest worry is the global economy. We are now entering a very dangerous period where all the rules on economic growth and fiscal management have been thrown out the window. I know this is now sustainable. That in the end a part and/or all of it is going to result in a major correction. I saw and experienced the same thing in Russia in the early 1990s. The only thing that I do not know is when this correction is going to happen, and how deep the damage to the global economy will be.
12 comments:
Estimates of the infection fatality risk (IFR) of SARS-Cov-2
Age class IFR [%]
5-9______ 0.0016
10-19____ 0.00032
20-49____ 0.0092
50-64____ 0.14
65+______ 5.6
all______ 0.64
COVID 19 is just not that deadly.
You only have 1 in 1,000 chance of dying from it if you are 50 to 64. Which is very misleading, because it is probably a tenth that if you are not obese. People can choose to be not obese, if they do not live in a shooting gallery/Democrat city.
WHO is say don't have lockdowns. Follow the science people. DIIM's follow their viking raid leaders to the polls.
Source for above
https://osf.io/wdbpe/
We are now entering a very dangerous period where all the rules on economic growth and fiscal management have been thrown out the window. I know this is "not" sustainable
Democrats just have to throw out the rules until November 3rd. Then the Democrat governors of California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York will relent.
Michigan's lockdown by the Democrat governor was judged illegal. She never went to the legislature after 38 days. That is she broke the law and she will not pay a price. The DNC will however reward her with the Order of Lenin and find a home for her, where her crime will pay big bucks.
Then with the Democrats in charge it will be all crony capitalism.
I am noticing the web browsers do a lot of auto-correcting of spelling, but it is never in context, so everyone form blogger to posters get bad spelling corrections.
"not" sustainable
Death rates steadily decline since August .
Andrew: not a very long time you refer to
deaths to date in US=219,796
What WHO really said: no need to lockdown if you do social distancing and wear masks. they did not say simply no lockdown and ignore the rest
219,796 is a very suspect number who ever you are, I call bullshit number. I believe the number that was given by the CDC of about 9k for those who died of Covid alone. The others are bullshit, fear porn numbers. It is clear the website manager buys into the fear porn.
8:57
All you did was double and quintuple the unemployment rate and murder thousands of people. So you could say that you made a difference on the world. Not a good difference, but a difference. So there is that to be said for you.
Several thousand scientists and medical personnel have issue The Great Barrington Declaration calling for an end to the lockdowns. The call for focused protections. That is being really stringent around vulnerable people like the elderly or people with pre-existing conditions. You focus resources in deep cleaning and keeping those people social distanced until COVID works its way through the rest of us. The quicker it work its way through the rest of us the safer the will be and the fewer of them will die.
But you don't understand that or won't on purpose. All you are doing is prolonging the spread so it has a chance to kill every pocket of vulnerable people in nursing homes and elsewhere.
If COVID were a drone, you would have it loitering waiting for an opportunity to strike the elderly.
You are sick!
Democratic Pennsylvania lawmaker caught saying masks are ‘political theater’
Hot mic appears to catch Pennsylvania's Democratic governor, state rep laughing about 'political theater' of wearing masks
You know it is a joke when you catch Democrat after Democrat many in higher risk groups with out masks
de BLasio
Pelosi
Cuomo
Maxine Waters
Cory Booker
Gretchen Whitmer
Kamala Harris
Biden
...
NYC Mayor De Blasio Gives Speech Without Mask, Surrounded by People Shortly After Public Urged to Wear Them
Biden is often seen approaching people with a mask after giving a speech. He takes his masks off to cough in his hand. He often wears is mask below his nose when he is wearing it.
You (8:57) are sick!
You don't understand the 1st thing about viruses or viriomes.
You are sick!
8:57 writes with no ending punctuation, but I am not sure that it is our favorite person. The person, who can sound out words without understanding them. Yeah that guy.
Funny how this all happened
Exactly a year ago, before the known outbreak of the pandemic, to this day, the United states under the Trump administration, saw its best economic growth, best unemployment and best stock market growth in 70 years. Records were broken on a daily basis while China experienced its worst year in 70 years! Panic was everywhere in China.. people talked openly about the end of the Chinese economy as we know
Suddenly a virus wrecks the World economy and China positioned itself to sell us PPE, while on top maximizing damages to our economies by withholding data and at the same time broadcasting horrific images and videos making everyone believe this virus would be 10-50x more deadly.
Ok. Where do we send these trillions in damages as a nice bill? To the CCP headquarters in Beijing?
Just asking...
My Swiss friend has been traveling around Europe the last few months doing work for stay. She is currently living in Germany and tells me that the young people she works with are very dissatisfied with the lockdowns. The current trends are that a lot them are heading to Sweden for the winter, also many are applying for green cards in the US, which surprised me a bit.
The case counts haven’t shown up in the death toll but you wouldn’t expect it to just yet. And given what we know about long-haul COVID patients, heart disease and other ailments associated with the virus, and so-called "brain fog," a lower mortality rate—which is expected when you have world-class doctors learning more about a pathology through repetition of hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations—doesn’t really remove the full danger of the disease.
Why would a person even as an Anonymous poster pass off someone else's writing as their own?
There is a poster who regularly does this. What is need ed is to put the copied writing in quotes ( " ") and preferably give periodical's name. Also it would be nice if they give the article's title or link.
A well known gadfly (a very nice, if unwarranted way to put it) posted this from an extreme leftwing periodical.
That would be PARROT/CLERK/PHILOTECTES. It has that MO. Maybe someone copied his low brow style, but who could abase themselves that much?
"The case counts haven’t shown up in the death toll but you wouldn’t expect it to just yet. And given what we know about long-haul COVID patients, heart disease and other ailments associated with the virus, and so-called "brain fog," a lower mortality rate—which is expected when you have world-class doctors learning more about a pathology through repetition of hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations—doesn’t really remove the full danger of the disease."
https://prospect.org/coronavirus/unsanitized-election-map-covid-hotspot-map-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin/
"The American Prospect is a daily online and quarterly print American political and public policy magazine dedicated to American liberalism and progressivism. Based in Washington, D.C.," That is based in The Swamp, the Potomac Swamp.
Any time your immune system is on the brink of non-equilibrium, on the verge of chaotic behavior due to old age or poor health, a cytokine storm is possible. It could be from influenza virus, rhino virus, corona virus , adeno virus or just about any virus. All that is needed is for the virus to be contagious, temporarily overwhelm the immune system and break its regulatory system if it is not already broken.
The problem is the functioning, the calibration, of the immune system more than anything else. You fix a person's immune system and you do not have to worry about most viruses. Leave the immune system mis-calibrated and a lowly and generally harmless rhino virus can bring it down.
You are not going to get rid of the viriome. You can't and you would not want to, if you could.
So fix the people's metabolisms instead.
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