Are All The U.S. Presidential Election Polls Wrong?

Wall Street Journal: Election 2020: Will the Polls Get it Right? 

Some surveys, especially in battleground states, got the results wrong in 2016. Here’s what the polls are telling us about this year’s race. 

Vice President Joe Bidenholds a 10-point lead over President Trump in the final Wall Street Journal/NBC News national survey, while polls in many battleground states suggest that enough are in play to allow either candidate to build an Electoral College majority. 

Here are some questions and answers about what polls say about the race—and what they can’t tell us.

Q: What does polling say about the presidential election? 

Mr. Biden’s lead among voters nationally is about the same as then-candidate Barack Obama held in the final Journal/NBC News poll in 2008. Mr. Obama went on to win the popular vote by 7 points and carry 365 electoral votes, comfortably more than the 270 needed. 

Mr. Biden’s lead is also larger than the 4-point advantage that Hillary Clinton, the prior Democratic nominee, held in the final Journal/NBC News poll in 2016. 

But as Mr. Trump’s win that year illustrated, a candidate can lose the popular vote and still win in the Electoral College. Averages of state polls show tight races in most swing states. 

Q. Polls missed the mark in 2016. Can we trust them now? 

Many people who set their expectations of the 2016 outcome by looking at polls were surprised by Mr. Trump’s win, as most surveys showed leads for Mrs. Clinton, though often modest ones. 

In studying why many polls missed the mark, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, a professional association, determined that national polls were among the most accurate in 80 years. 

Collectively, national surveys pointed to a 3-point win by Mrs. Clinton. She won the popular vote by 2 points, well within the margin of error of most polls. 

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WNU Editor: All the main stream polls are predicting a Biden landslide. You can see them here .... RealClearPolitics. But the polls that were right in the last election cycle are saying the opposite. The last Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll is predicting a Trump landslide .... Poll: Donald Trump set to win US presidency by electoral college landslide (Express). Rasmussen is essentially saying the race is a tie .... White House Watch (Rasmussen). IDP/TIPP is saying the race is tightening .... Trump Vs. Biden Race Suddenly Looks Tight In IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll (Investors.com). And the Trafalgar Group is saying that President Trump is ahead in all of the critical toss-up states (link here). So who is right? My money is on those who have a track record of being right, and who are open in showing the methodology on how they got their result.