Monday, November 16, 2020

Did U.S. Intelligence Fail In Predicting The Azerbaijan Offensive To Retake Nagorno-Karabakh?

Reuters Michael Rubin, National Interest: Three Intelligence Failures from Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Need Investigating 

The outcome of the Nagorno-Karabakh region sets back U.S. interests considerably. 

The guns are now silent across Nagorno-Karabakh as Russian peacekeepers take up positions along the ceasefire line. Even at the best of times in Washington, DC, attention spans are short, but in a political season dominated by recounts and a presidential transition, even more so. Congress, however, has broader responsibilities than just to posture for partisan gain. With elections over, the Senate and House intelligence committees should instead focus on investigating the three intelligence failures which the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict exposed. 


WNU Editor: No warnings or concerns were voiced by anyone in the US intelligence community until Azerbaijan launched its offensive 6 weeks ago. If that is not a complete intelligence failure, I do not know what is. 

For regular readers of this blog, predictions of an imminent war started by Azerbaijan have been regularly posted since 2011 (see small sample below) 

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

9 of every 10 CIA case officers have been assigned to proving Russian collusion with Trump. Nothing changed from the firing of Brennan and the hiring of Gina Haspel.

It is much easier for CIA officers to manipulate Americans than dealing with icky foreigners.

Anonymous said...

Ah, but did Russian intelligence fail to predict it?

B.Poster said...

Of course the incompetent boobs who comprise US (un)intelligence failed. This should surprise no one.

In fairness though this particular conflict doesn't involve any American interests. As such, there would be no real reason to allocate resources, intelligence or otherwise to it.

Anonymous said...

Amerikabomber

"Canadian historian Holger H. Herwig claims the plan started as a result of discussions by Hitler in November 1940 and May 1941 when he stated his need to "deploy long-range bombers against American cities from the Azores"

The US did not get into the war (officially) until Dec 7, 1941.

So why the need for the America bomber beforehand?

Announced intentions change and grow as aggressive people make book. what merely was in the back of their mind becomes announced policy as they acquire ore and people and resources.

Azerbaijan is not going to challenge the US directly. But in concert with other Turkish and Muslim states, if they fell like they are on a roll, them might.

I would like to pont out the folliwing

Saddam's Iraq was a client state of the USSR/Russia. The US invaded in 1991 and 2003

Libya was a client state of the USSR/Russia, Barack Inssein Obama invaded in 2011.

Syria was/is a USSR/Russian client state. In 2015 Putin said "Fuck this. There will be no 3rd act."

At least that is how I read it. To date Russia still has its base in Tartus maybe solely due to Putin's actions.

However, Russia allowed Azerbaijan to screw over Armenia, which are both somewhat in Russia's orbit. This shows weakness. Would trashing Azerbaijan and slapping them down cause unrest in Abkhazia, Chechnya, Ossetia, Dagestan, Tatarstan, Kazan and elsewhere in Russia as well as damage Russian relations in the Middle East. There appears to be some weakness thereon Russia's part.

G said...

Only the devil only the devil people

Anonymous said...

Yeah my bad, egging the Chinese on but should have predicted they would initiate a proxy war. Bunch of crying babies too scared to fight their own battles. They have combat experiance now and know how effective drones are, id suspect Taiwan will be attacked soon, leadership that refuses to help, an international community that supports the one China policy. But over the seas as taskforces face off in aerial combats, well the J15 keeps losing.

Anonymous said...

egging the Chinese on but should have predicted they would initiate a proxy war.


u r making no sense