Are Protests In Russia Going To Escalate Into A Larger Movement Against Putin?

Law enforcement officers stand in front of participants during a rally in support of jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Saint Petersburg, Russia January 23, 2021. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov 

Wall Steet Journal: Navalny Protests Threaten to Snowball as Grievances Grow in Russia 

Weekend rallies across Russia were driven by anger over falling living standards and worsening repression 

MOSCOW—Protests in Russia over the jailing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny are threatening to escalate into a larger movement against the Kremlin, driven by frustration over falling living standards and shrinking political freedoms as President Vladimir Putin cements his long-term hold on the country.  

The Russian leader for years has ridden the popularity generated by his aggressive foreign policy that has seen Moscow defy the West with hacking attacks and military interventions in Ukraine and the Middle East, and re-establish itself on the global stage since its decline under Boris Yeltsin in the 1990s. 

But the weekend protests over the detention of Mr. Navalny on his return to Russia after recovering from a poisoning attack are threatening to turn into a broader movement. 

Discontent is now shifting to anger after a court ordered Mr. Navalny to be held in pretrial custody for 30 days, propelled by chronic corruption, the pain from the collapse of oil prices last year and Covid-19 lockdown measures. 

“We have a real problem with corruption, on the one hand, and with poverty, on the other hand,” said Evgeniya Ragozina, a 28-year-old lawyer who braved temperatures of minus 20 degrees Fahrenheit to join a rally in the Siberian city of Tyumen.

She added that Mr. Navalny’s arrest was just the trigger. “People are more scared of the fact that they don’t see a decent future for themselves,” she said. “That’s why I will be [protesting] until the end of Putin’s political regime.” 

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WNU Editor: Before the pandemic I always travelled back to the old country (Moscow) two or three times a year for personal and business reasons. During these visits I always got a good sense of what was happening politically and economically .... an on the ground education that I always try my best to share with the readers of this blog. 

But because of the pandemic I have not been back to Russia since late 2019, and my understanding of what is happening back home comes from phone calls, Skype/Zoom/FaceTime video calls, and emails. 

To say that I wish I was in Russia right now is an understatement. The situation on the ground appears to be changing, if the above WSJ article is correct. 

I know among my family members and friends, who are mostly Putin supporters, they were surprised by the widespread protests across Russia this weekend. Russia is in the middle of winter, and it is customary that Russians basically stay home and only go out only for sports, work, visit family and friends, or shop. Never to protest.

Long time readers of this blog know that I have always been predicting large scale protests that would force Putin to resign. But I have always been disappointed. Putin's base of support has always been the pensioners, the church, the massive government bureaucracy, rural communities, and the business community. The opposition primarily consists of young people, the underclass, and the usual political activists .... but in the past their numbers never reached the level that would pose a threat to Putin's power. 

I am not sure about that now. 

The pandemic has hit Russia very hard. Like the U.S. a lot of Russians have died because of this disease, and the economic impact has been devastating especially to those who are in Putin's base.

In this context I am sure a lot of people are now re-examining everything, including on what type of government do they want in the Kremlin. But will they all go on the streets to protest and change the government. Not now.