Authored by "Ehsani" - a Middle East expert, Syrian-American banker and financial analyst who visits the region frequently and writes for the influential geopolitical analysis blog, Syria Comment.
A friend recently asked: "Surely, the American Army is not staying in Syria forever and sooner or later they will leave, no?" To his surprise, my answer was: "No, I don’t think they would leave. Why would they? It costs very little and they incur hardly any casualties."
Moreover of all past military interventions in the region, the US presence in Syria is unique in a number of ways. It is relatively small in scope, yet it does achieve a seemingly broad set of objectives both geopolitically and even domestically.
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WNU Editor: The author gives the following reasons (an analysis that I agree with) on why the U.S. will stay in Syria for the foreseeable future:
1) It costs little in lives or money
2) For a change, local terrain is friendly, i.e. the Kurds
3) It controls the oil & reinforces sanctions
4) It shows you are tough on Iran
5) It satisfies Israel and other allies
6) It leaves you at the negotiation table
2 comments:
Why are we in Syria?
Because ostensibly, we are there due to R2P. That is there were protests in 2012 and Assad's police and military rounded people up, tortured them, murdered them and shot demonstrators. So we took military forces leaving Iraq and stationed them in Jordan as a threat or something. We began supporting and/or training rebels against Assad. The support was nonlethal aid, which meant that Obama was 1/2 assing it like in Afghanistan or it was a cover story. If there was lethal covert aid, it consisted in part of the CIA destroying some of Gadaffi's arsenal in in a dog and pony show while siphoning the better stuff off to arm the Syrian insurgents.
The R2P flopped when the rebels flopped. And they did. Polls among the rebels showed that they were not much different in attitude than Islamists/ISIS. So why help them in the 1st place? To replace Asshole Assad with Asshole Muslim Brotherhood or asshole Al Qaeda? So the whole R2P is moribund and has been for some time. Thus we have no reason to be there.
We could back Kurdish statehood. It would anger Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey. But what of it? None of them are our allies or helping us in the least. Syria and Iran are definitely not our allies. At what time since WW2 has Syria been our ally? Iran is not our ally and will not be no matter how much money we give them or how often our FSOs give them blow jobs. With Iranian money flowing into Shia militia groups and elsewhere Iraq is not our ally. Since Obasma decided to negotiate in 2009 in bad faith and thus left Iraq in 2011, there has not been a chance for Iraq to ally with the US. They only temporarily did in 2014 under extremis. Some of them might appreciate our continuing support, but only just or they do not have much control over the various factions of Iraq. Turkey is not an ally. If it was such a great ally, why did when take 60%of our nukes out of the airbases in Turkey? Turkey is no more an ally of the US under Erdogan than Al Qaeda. The only difference is Erdogan is more pinstripe and less cammies and has been since 2003. Turkey is becoming a Chinese ally.
We are helping the Kurds now than George H.W. Bush and Clinton helped them in 1991 and thereafter, which is not saying much. The help we are giving them is allowing them to die on the vine slowly. the Shia militia and Turks are using drones against the Kurds in Iraq Kurdistan. They'll end up like the Armenians. WHAT THE FUCK are the grand poobahs in Washington doing about it? Another Vietnam, but if it last longer, we stroll out and there is no helicopter shot, who cares what happens to the Kurds?
Biden, Psaki, Blinkered, McCain, Kerry and the rest of them do not defend sanctions in a big enough way.
Otherwise you would not get so much of this:
"Heartbreaking story of a Syrian child killed by US sanctions. "
"Can Biden, Congress, and EU leaders sleep at night while an entire people die of hunger, oppression, and marginalization just because politicians want to be seen as doing something tough?""
Last I checked Iraq, Iran, Russia and china were all trading with Syria. But the lie of that tweet will spread as fast as BLM and ANTIFA. So Blinky, Circleback Psaki , Biden and others might want to pay attention.
10 or 15 years ago Biden opined that Iraq should be broken up in to Sunni, Shia and Kurdish components. Biden should come out for Kurdish statehood. Or is the plan to stay in Kurdistan for a little while pull out 1, 2, or 3 presidential cycles from now and let the Kurds get wiped out. If we are there 2 decades and then it happens, we have this nifty fig lead to hide our unmentionables.
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