CNBC: Belarus could be used as a Russian ‘weapon’ against NATO, Lithuania president says
* NATO leaders are meeting in Brussels on Monday for their first face-to-face gathering since U.S. President Joe Biden started his tenure at the White House.
* At the top of their discussions is the relationship with Moscow, which, according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, is at its lowest point since the Cold War.
Russia is extending its influence into Belarus and could use it as leverage against NATO countries, Gitanas Nausėda, the president of Lithuania told CNBC in an exclusive interview Monday.
“We see the military buildup of Russian forces in Ukraine, in [the] Kaliningrad region and of course we see what’s happening in Belarus right now.
We see that this country is losing its last elements of independence, and could be used in the hands of Russians as a weapon … for foreign aggressive activities towards NATO allies,” the Lithuanian leader said.
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Update: At NATO, Lithuania says Russia trying to "swallow" Belarus (Reuters)
WNU Editor: If Russia wanted to swallow Belarus they would have done so a long time ago.
There are many reasons why this has not happened, even though both countries share the Russian language, culture, and history.
In the end it all comes down to what the people in Russia and Belarus want. And from what I can see, the overwhelming opinion in Russia is to keep the status quo. And in Belarus the overwhelming majority want to see the dictator Lukashenko and his regime gone. An integration of the two countries is not on the public radar.
4 comments:
Russia becoming bigger is of concern as intentions can change or not change as the case may be. As has been pointed "both countries share the Russian language, culture, and history." So if they voluntarily decided to join what of it. They could hold a plebiscite in both countries.
Plebiscites being votes are problematic. Lukashenko and Democrats have made it so. Who would believe the results?
Personally, for me to believe them there would have to be paper ballots, no Democrat operatives, no Democrat lawyers (Marc Elias) and prolonged massed demonstrations and polls showing support.
While I normally consider the website author to be incisive and thoughtful with his comments, he has repeatedly shown a particular naivete in regards to Russia and Putin. I think this is likely due to emotional sympathies for his former patria than a deliberate attempt at deception.
Public opinion in Russia is meaningless. At this point in time, and has been for quite a while, Putin can do whatever he likes. This does not mean Putin is immune to public opinion or doesn't take it into consideration, but Putin has consistently demonstrated during the last several years that he will do what he likes even if public opinion is against it. It's just a matter of whether he think the reward of doing so is worth any political price he might pay for it. And as long as the security forces and informal stormtroopers he can summon can beat down the opposition, he can pay a quite hefty political price and survive.
This does not mean that Putin intends to take over Belarus. Just that public opinion isn't an obstacle to him if he does so. And he has clearly sought to integrate Belarus into Russia with the long term goal of rendering its sovereignty meaningless, using whatever practical means he has at the time. If the website author believes Putin has no interest in suborning Belarus, he's ignoring reality.
And as for public opinion in Belarus, that likewise is immaterial. Lukashenko controls Belarus at the present time despite clearly enjoying low public support. And among Belarussians, historically there has been more support for its Russian identity or unity with Russia than it has with Belarussian nationalism or unity with its prior heritage as part of Lithuania or the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (although the latter is currently growing), which is why there have been so many plans on integrating Belarus with Russia and none at all with the EU (unlike Ukraine). So it is not inconceivable for Putin to enjoy some measure of public support within Belarus if he does so.
It's really a matter of Putin evaluating the costs and evaluating the risks associated with any specific tactic.
It could very well be that Putin decides the cost is way too high and does nothing. Then again, that is what everyone thought about Russian intervention in Georgia and Ukraine before Putin invaded those countries.
Chris
Does anyone in Belarus remember the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth ?
Most families go back 3 to 5 generations, unlucky ones go back 1. Established ones go back 7 or so. Does anyone or any family have memory of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. It was partitioned in the 18th century.
Also the Lithuanian occupation of Belarus was what? A 100 years? The Polish Lithuanians reached the Black Sea and fought the Turks. Perhaps we should talk about the prior heritage as part of Lithuania or the Polish-Lithuanian of Ukraine?
Putin is a dictator or least the pre-eminent member of a an oligarchy. Mao was both. Sometimes he had to explain himself and sell an idea and sometime he was the absolute ruler and in the last 5 years or so of his life, he was Joe Biden.
Being the pre-eminent member of a an oligarchy describes America.
Keep it up
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