Pentagon spokesman John Kirby speaks during a briefing at the Pentagon in Washington, Monday, Aug. 9
* US Intelligence officials are warning that the Afghan capital of Kabul could fall to Taliban forces in as little as a month, or within the next 90 days
* That's despite US-trained security forces that 'far outnumber the Taliban' and a 'capable fighting force of 300,000 troops'
* Initial intelligence estimates had pegged the fall of Kabul to Taliban forces at six to 12 months following the departure of the US military
* The Taliban has boldly began to overrun and capture large swaths of the war-torn country since US forces began being pulled from the region in late May
* They are set to be fully removed by the end of this month
US Intelligence officials are warning that the Afghan capital of Kabul could fall to Taliban forces in as little as a month, despite a huge security force that far outnumbers the rogue group previously triggering claims that the city would be able to defend itself for at least a year.
As stability in the region continues to erode, the Washington Post reports that the White House is currently bracing for the fall of Kabul, with an accelerated decline of security in the city taking it's toll over the last several weeks.
Initial intelligence estimates had pegged the fall of Kabul to Taliban forces at six to 12 months following the departure of the US military.
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WNU Editor: I am convinced that the Biden administration is clueless on what is happening in Afghanistan. Case in point .... Jen Psaki is mocked for saying Taliban should consider its 'role in the international community' amid its rape and pillage of Afghanistan (Daily Mail).
But I am going to give President Biden some slack.
He has his opinions on what needs to be done, but he (like all other past Presidents) are influenced by what military/intel/etc. officials and policy experts tell him.
Clearly they have failed in advising the President on Afghanistan.
To say that Afghanistan is a major U.S. foreign policy, military, and intelligence failure is an understatement.
These people are the experts on Afghanistan, but all of their assessments have been proven wrong.
This should bother everyone, and this is why.
America's national security establishment is massive. With a total budget approaching almost one trillion dollars and a workforce with some of the brightest and most capable individuals of the country.
But ponder this.
After fighting this war for 20 years, they have lost against an enemy that numbers (at most) about 60,000 fighters, equipped with only AK-47s, RPGs, and mortars.
13 comments:
"Biden Administration Preparing For The Afghan Capital Kabul To Fall To The Taliban In As Little As Four Weeks"
It would 8 days, a mere 8 days after the last American soldier leaves.
If it were not for Hazaraland, they would already be in the capital. The Hazara may simply be bypassed and genocided later by the Talib.
The Southern belts abutting Pakistan might fall overnight. They Taliban could be pacing themselves. They want to secure the north first before they put their back into it. If they took the south first the AA and others might have fought harder. Now, they will fold or flee, if they can.
The Soviet Union also failed in Afghanistan as well. In retrospect it may have been the height of hubris to think we could have succeeded where they could not.
Will our leadership class learn from their mistakes? I hope so but am not holding my breath. I'm actually glad where getting out. I figure out back in late 2002 that the effort was futile but didn't want to admit it. By 2005 it became to obvious to deny. I'm glad someone finally caught on.
Since we can't handle the Taliban, it should seem pretty clear that confronting major world powers such as Russia and China is going to be problematic at best. Trump really was right to try and court Russia. Perhaps it's time to call off our conflicts with Russia and China. If we do need to confront China Perhaps it would be helpful if we have some useful allies.
I to must cut Biden some slack here, however, not as much as you seem to. After all if a primary source of your information and analysis is coming from US (un)intelligence you're going to be on real trouble. Team Biden should have known this.
60,000 yes, but they are Immortals like the Persian Immortals. Everyone, who falls, is quickly replaced. Each Jihadi will have 6 or 7 children, who are brainwashed. They win or they lose and are dead, In the meantime each of them has their own personal brothel. Their morale is high.
Also, we're told the Taliban are getting a great deal of help from Pakistan. Pakistan is a nuclear armed power who has quite a bit more at their disposal than 60K fighters and AK47s.
They are essentially "immortal" and their morale is high. Unfortunately we are not and our morale at least that of the armed forces is quite low. The Soviet Union couldn't win there which should have in retrospect been a huge red flag for us.
As to the morale of our armed forces, assuming our leadership class forces an untested and possibly unsafe vaccine on them, expect the already low morale to plummet even more. Also, while we're in a de facto state of Cold War with both Russia and China it seems unwise to risk the health and well-being of our fighting men and women on such a wreckers manner as using them as test subjects for an untested vaccine. At best, such a move would be an unforced error.
Pakistan is dangerous not immortal. The Persian Immortals were beaten by the Greeks. For awhile the Persian Immortals did seem immortal, but they folded. There is only so much you can do with wicker work shields.
Learn some history along wit your English.
As relieved as I am to see troops pulled out, the only way to keep the Taliban from taking over was to wipe them out. Completely. First and foremost. THEN establish a stable government and ensure that the Afghans care enough to take charge of their country. Not easy, damn near impossible to do in that region.
AFG is a mess. Just like Iraq. I bet you all that we're back there within five years.
WNU,
Check my previous text: I quickly said it will be very fast.
Why go back?
Why not let Russia or China take care of it?
Why go in with Pakistan interdicting our supply lines covertly and openly?
Why go back with Pakistan giving supplies, training, money, intel and a safe area to operate out of?
Why go back when, if a us soldier stops an Afghan from practicing bacha bazi, the American gets in trouble?
Anon (1:22AM),
While we agree that Pakistan is dangerous, "they" within the context of the post is the Taliban. I thought it was clear. Of course it does help to actually read the post before commenting. If it still wasn't clear, I apologize. Essentially the Taliban as the "immortals" is a sound analogy. Since we obviously are not, we need to understand this when formulating our strategies.
I appreciate the historical analysis as well. The Taliban like anyone can be beaten. In order to do this,, it will require taking the time and making the effort to actually understand the enemy. Unfortunately our leadership class currently lacks the circumspection necessary to conduct such an analysis or the patience to implement sound strategy. They prefer instead to fall back on ideology. These aren't "the best and the brightest." It's more like a club where the members nurture bad ideas, pat themselves on the back, and promote failure upward.
As an American English is my native tongue so it is generally quite good. Sometimes I am in a hurry here and my eyesight is poor. As such, sentence structure may be off sometimes and spell check sometimes changes what I type and I may not always catch it. Nevertheless the points I make should be easy enough to follow. If something needs to be clarified, please let me know and I will do my best to explain.
Russ,
For a variety of reasons we were unable or unwilling to wipe out the Taliban completely. A big part of the problem was the inability to do anything about the safe havens in Pakistan.
"THEN establish a stable government...." A number of friend of mine who served in Afghanistan will attest to the problems with this and will likely say it is not only "damn near impossible" but completely impossible.
Anon (2:41AM)'
Nailed it!! Remember the Soviet Union couldn't win there. That probably should have been a huge red flag for us. I'm pleased to see our leadership class may be finally catching on.
Biden time is ticking never ever leave your wing man ,and stand bey watch them fall .it be bad to see china go in and clean house .then america will be sorry .so wake up show the world how strong america really is .before the west falls to karma
Afghanistan is an illusion!
Eerily similar to South Vietnam, what has the the US been doing there for 20 years? At least the ARVN army put up some resistance while the Afghan military are falling apart. That is if you believe what you are seeing on the boob tube.
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