At a military parade in Moscow, August 2021. Maxim Shemetov / Reuters
Michael Kofman and Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Foreign Affairs: The Myth of Russian Decline
Why Moscow Will Be a Persistent Power
The Biden administration came into office with a clear and unambiguous foreign policy priority: countering a rising China. The administration’s public statements, its early national security planning documents, and its initial diplomatic forays have all suggested that pushing back against Beijing’s growing global influence will be Washington’s national security focus, alongside transnational threats such as climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. The question of how to deal with Russia, by contrast, has taken a back seat, returning to the fore only when Russian troops amassed on Ukraine’s border in April. That crisis served as a reminder of the danger of looking past Moscow—yet by July, President Joe Biden was back to declaring that Russia was “sitting on top of an economy that has nuclear weapons and oil wells and nothing else.”
Biden is not the first American leader to think along these lines. Ever since the end of the Cold War, American politicians have periodically suggested that Russia’s days as a true global power are numbered. In 2014, John McCain, a Republican senator from Arizona, called Russia a “gas station masquerading as a country.” That same year, U.S. President Barack Obama dismissed Russia as a mere “regional power.” Not long thereafter, Russia successfully intervened in the Syrian war, interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and inserted itself into the political crisis in Venezuela and the civil war in Libya. And yet, the perception of Russia as a paper tiger persists.
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WNU Editor: The above authors focus a lot of their attention on Russia as a military threat to the West. I see it differently. There is zero sentiment in Russia to go to war against the West.
And as for the current border frictions and conflicts, they reside in regions and territories that hold large Russian populations who feel under threat (rightly or wrongly) in places like Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and parts of the Baltics. I do not see that changing anytime soon.
And as for the rest.
The above authors over estimate support in Russia for that country's involvement in Syria and Africa. The feedback that I am getting from everyone I know in Russia is the opposite. Most people in Russia are more focused on improving their economic situation, and making sure the borders are safe.
But the above analysis is correct that Russia is far from being in decline. In fact I see a very strong spiritual and cultural revival in the country.
And as for the economy. The West has always underestimated Russia. And they are doing it again.
19 comments:
"There is zero sentiment in Russia to go to war against the West. "
and zero in China and in the US either
But the population does not set foreign policies
Europeans of the German and French sort want a independent Europe able to take a seat at the table with the USA or China. Russia is determined to use its power to expand its influence along its borders and in long standing Middle East interests. At no time have I seen Russia wanting confrontations with the USA, Israel or NATO. Russia has been cast as an enemy to the USA by entrenched vile people inside the USA as a means to obscure illegal acts against former Trump.
Heres a suggestion. Return to negotiations and seeking harmony over common interests. Disagree where we must but stop the endless boogeyman treatment for Russia. Crimea is gone and won't be returned to Ukraine. Move on.
Next suggestion, gradually redistribute US forces under NATO command and move away from continental forces and move to maritime and mobile forces. Let the Germans and French form the continental forces making up NATO.
Stop the talk of Ukraine or Georgia joint NATO.
Russia has energy for sale; Nat gas and oil and will be a player for awhile with it. Especially as the current kids in Europe get realistic about what wind and solar can do against Mother Nature.
Word Pal.
I see various national Chinese celebrations every year. I see them as vibrant.
People can be propagandized or brainwashed and still be motivated to a great degree.
Another factor is you can fake it until you make it. And it will work so long as you have a strong economy and people do well or better than before.
Chinese people are sincerely upset about the unequal treaties of the 19th century. then Chinese people will go with the government so long things go well.
there is also the wheel theory. China was at a nadir and is now rising to the zenith and the 21st century will be the Chinese century. Theories such as that take little if any nudging by the Chinese governments.
In contrast unlike the national celebrations in China done with Pride, The Left / The Democrat / Liberals/ Motherfuckers are tearing America apart with CRT, affirmative action, tearing down statues, renaming buildings, attacking national holidays and Lysenko-izing STEN, social sciences, and all other curriculum.
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If the Russian majority Eastern portion of Ukraine was given to Russian and Ukraine joined NATO Russia should not be appalled and it should not be any of their business.
When was Georgia Russian except by conquest?
Georgia was better under the Russian Empire than the Turkish Empire. Definitely. Under the USSR it is debatable. Around the new Russia, if it can maintain its borders by joining NATO, why not.
Russia has done jack shit about maintaining Armenia's borders.
Nothing more dangerous than a dying lion as Hemingway noted
Very sound and reasonable suggestions.
B Poster is a Russian or Chinese agent and a cuck.
Just nuke them away.
I agree. Imposter isn't, who he says he is
Anon @ 11:50 makes sound and reasonable suggestions. This is who I was replying to.
If you took the time to read my posts objectively, you would know I'm obviously not a Russian or Chinese agent. As for the "cuck" slur, these things contribute nothing to the discussion, are a distraction, and are consistent with the actions of a troll.
I've given you ample information to prove or disprove my claims. You haven't made the attempt. Had you done so the result would be that all claims regarding my identity check out.
I suppose it should come as no surprise that individuals in an echo chamber will agree with one another.
Suggestion: either follow the ways I've laid out to contact me which would verify my claims regarding my identity or stop wasting time here. Either put up or shut up!!
Part of the problem is with "anonymous" is I don't always know exactly who I'm addressing. In contrast, all who are paying attention here know exactly who I am and how to find me.
Perhaps if you wish to continue here, take the approach of anonymous @ 12:21. Baseless slander of me or others has no place here or anywhere else.
"If the Russian majority Eastern portion of Ukraine were given to Russian..." interesting proposal. Perhaps it might work. Unfortunately I don't envision either the Ukrainian government or our leadership class agreeing to anything like that at this time. Perhaps we can get there in time.
The problem with them joining NATO is it risks getting us sucked into yet more conflicts we don't need and place our people (American) in unnecessary danger. Studying our Founding Fathers specifically John Adams would be very helpful in my considered opinion.
Is this directed at me? I haven't advocated any policy that would place Russian interests over America's. O would suggest you carefully read the post by Anon @ 11:50. Valid points are raised by thus person. Also carefully read my posts in their entirety. It would become obvious that I've never placed Putin or Russia's interests above those of America's. As such, your Putin fan boy slur of me isn't accurate
You say I squeal like a pig but offer no constructive critiques of my positions. Constructive dialog is helpful. Personal attacks against others aren't helpful and are a distraction.
Putin fanboy still squealing like stuck pig.
If there's a perceived problem with my analysis, please point out. Where do you think I placed Russian interests ahead of America's? Perhaps if something needs clarification I can help.
Putin Fanboy is still trolling.
You're the troll. You've done nothing but hurl baseless insults at me. Please stick with the topic of the thread or stop wasting time. I'm a bit busy right now and don't have time right now.
Very briefly I'll try and explain proper etiquette to you. We stick with the topics of the thread, treat others respectfully, and refrain from baseless insults of others.
Here's an example. Anon 11:50 believes that the relentless and needless going out of the way to provoke confrontation with Russia is based upon a need to obscure illegal acts. Frankly I don't think our leadership class is that bright. At least this analysis is a serious one.
As for you, frankly you don't seem like a serious person to me. Maybe I'm wrong. I'm willing to make am attempt at serious policy discussion of policy but you don't seem willing and my time and patience is limited. I have important family matters to attend to.
Russia will continue to be a regional power with limited expeditionary capability out of region. It has a skilled scientific and engineering cohort. It has vast natural resources. Its oil and gas resources boosts its influence and gives it a hard currency earner. Under Putin, it has stabilized its finances and does not overspend. It's not going away.
But the Russian economy is the size of Italy's, and since much of it comes from natural resource rents it means much of the Russian economy is not actually value-add. There's too much corruption. When Putin dies, retires, or is removed from office by ambitious upstarts, there may be a political crisis. Its strategic position benefitted from having mostly weak neighbors it could bully or bribe, China being the big exception. But Kazakhstan, while friendly, has grown tremendously and will be able to assert its own interests. Ukraine is stabilizing and slowly reforming. In two decades time, it won't be able to be pushed around anymore. Relative to its neighbors, its power is slowly declining.
And just outside of Russia's boundaries is Poland which has grown tremendously the past thirty years, and in the last decade has had economic growth about twice of Russia. If current trends continue, Poland will go from being roughly one-third of the Russian economy to somewhere between 50-60% of Russia's economy in two decades. It'll probably improve its GDP ranking from roughly 20-24 to somewhere between 12-16. While it won't be a peer to Russia, it will become a real leader in Europe. And unlike the traditional Western powers, Poland won't ignore Russia because it doesn't have the luxury of being far away. They'll be able to take the leadership role in Central/Eastern Europe that the Germans and others don't want to do. With historic ties to both Belarus and Ukraine, it'll be an attractive model compared to Russia. A democratic and reformed Polish-Ukrainian partnership will be a real block to Russian aggression in Europe.
Russia won't be going away, and it will continue to be a spoiler, forcing the West to negotiate with it. But I think in retrospect we'll see Russia's invasion of a confused and disoriented Ukraine and Syrian adventures in 2014-2016 as the peak of its relative influence.
chris
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