Taiwan wants to maintain the status quo with China, but has repeatedly said that it will defend itself if attacked. Bloomberg
Newsweek: War With China Not Likely in Next Three Years: Taiwan Intelligence Chief
Taipei and Beijing won't come to blows anytime in the next three years, Taiwan's chief of intelligence told local lawmakers on Wednesday as he faced questions about the likelihood of war in the near future.
Chen Ming-tong, director of Taiwan's National Security Bureau, said China has never renounced the use of force against the island since its founding in 1949, but the probability of conflict across the Taiwan Strait remains "very low."
"Barring any contingent event, nothing will happen," said Chen. "It's my view that nothing will happen for the remainder of President Tsai Ing-wen's term."
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Update: Odds of war with China in the next year 'very low,' top Taiwan official says (Reuters)
WNU Editor: I hope he is right.
1 comment:
There is an arms race. Japan is increasing spending and changing posture. Australia is too.
The trends in force ratio maybe less in China's favor in 3 years. Seeing this, they may go sooner.
Force rations do not have to be 3 to 1 in your favor to kick off an offensive.
Germany had a 1 to 1 force ration for the Battle for France. The Germans used civilian aircraft to emplace troops to protect the flanks of the spearheads.
Looking strictly for purpose built ships is a mistake.
I would use some junks to insert teams and confuse the initial reports coming into HQ. If small lodgments are not taken care of, they will be enlarged and be a threat. Sacrificial lodgments would draw off some of Taiwan's 30+ regiments.
Maybe China can back down. They could receive Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu, and Wuqiu islands in exchange for peace. Surrendering these islands would assuage Chinese pride and give Xi a win. Having non-Chinese islands of a port city like Xiamen is quite a thorn in the side. They act as OPs/ LPs. Without the islands shipping traffick is harder to keep track of.
"The average speed of a merchant ship is about 15 knots (1 knot = 1 nautical mile per hour = 1853 metres per hour), or 28 kilometres per hour, the equivalent of about 670 kilometres a day. Newer ships are capable of 25 to 30 knots (45 to 55 kilometres per hour)."
The strait are a minimum are minimum of 81 miles up to 110 miles (180 km) or more.
The straight could be crossed in 4 hours. With "taking a lead off a base" the time could be cut by 1/2.
You can expect fighting inside Taiwan before any landings. So concentration of Taiwanese forces might be problematic.
China will have air superiority and known concentration areas or armories are going to be hit with ballistic missiles.
A big if is the American wargames vis-a-vis China. It is said we lost them. Is that true? Was it a loss because the red cell is good and the blue cell are conventional in the box thinkers? Was it a loss so to cajole congress for more money.
Can China replicate the American wargames or are their own wargames realistic enough and does it tell them America is weak. The war games themselves are an important factor to factor into a Taiwanese war.
The American rot is severe. Tony Podesta was paid $ 500,000 and all of the sudden the Huwaei exec was freed. A mere 500,000.
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