Atlantic Council: Will Russia make a military move against Ukraine? Follow these clues.
For weeks, the eyes of the world have been on a Russian troop buildup near Ukraine, as Western officials struggle to decipher Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intent: beef up his attack on Ukrainian sovereignty, or bluff his way to key concessions?
Amid a flurry of diplomatic talks, fiery rhetoric, and movements of heavy materiel, we wanted to separate the signal from the noise. So we reached out to our military fellows at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, who are active-duty officers with the US Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps, for a sense of what they’re tracking most closely—and what indicators we should all be monitoring to divine Putin’s intentions.
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WNU Editor: The above post says that the Russian army is not going to move into Ukraine during the "muddy" season. I disagree. The muddy fields in the spring thaw are not going to stop Russian armor from moving into Ukraine. The Russian military trains in this type of environment all the time, and they know what needs to be done.
But there is another reason why a Russian invasion will not happen in the next month. The Beijing winter Olympics opens in two weeks, and Russia is not going to do anything that will divert world attention away from these games and China's efforts to showcase its country.
7 comments:
a sure sign is all the NATO advisors and trainers leaving the country in haste, followed by thousands of desertions in the Ukrainian army
Putin invaded Georgia during the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics. Putin values strategic surprise more than normal diplomatic conventions. Putin also had no problem bald face lying about the little green men in Crimea, or breaking Russian's treaty obligations under the Budapest Memorandum. So the normal rules of thumb people use when calculating diplomacy are of little value when it comes to Putin. It's still entirely possible that Putin will delay invasion or perhaps not even invade at all, but the wisest course of action is to prepare as if it will happen very soon.
Chris
another sign: tanks shooting
Another sign;Biden goes on vacation.
Putin is throwing crisis at Biden so fast he can’t think straight. Which is Putin’s strategy, overwhelm Biden. Putin probably knows more about who’s calling the shots in DC than we do, disfunctional govt can’t handle the velocity of crises either.
you should go on vacation or attend another Trump blah blah buy my hats and invest in me and wave your hands and take over the Capitol movement
Are your little (and I mean little) feelings hurt ...... again!!!
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