Market Watch: Here’s what a Russian invasion of Ukraine would mean for markets
Fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine are on the rise, prompting analysts and traders to weigh the potential financial-market shock waves.
“If Russia invades Ukraine, the trade is buy TY,” wrote Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, in a Friday note, referring to 10-year Treasury-note futures.
Treasurys are a traditional haven during periods of geopolitical and economic stress.
A rally in Treasurys would pull down yields, which move in the opposite direction of prices.
A Treasury selloff has pushed up yields, with the 10-year Treasury rate finishing near 1.77% Friday after hitting a nearly two-year high earlier in the week.
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WNU Editor: These tensions are already creating a turbulence for both Russia's and Ukraine's markets .... Ukraine bonds sink into distress, Russia drops as tensions mount (Reuters). Especially with talk like this .... Russia sanctions: How to punish Moscow over Ukraine threat? (DW).
My prediction.
If there is a war it will immediately impact oil and natural gas prices, and grain supplies. The stock, bond, and credit markets in both countries will also collapse.
For those who have cash. Everything in both countries will become very cheap.
What Will Be The Impact On Global Markets If Russia Invades Ukraine?
Research Russia: Expect serious market disruptions if a war breaks out -- FXStreet
Assessing Macro Risks To Markets: Russia Vs. Ukraine -- Investing.com
Energy And Gold Prices To Soar After Likely Russian Invasion -- Seeking Alpha
Watch: Market Movers Europe, Jan 17-21: Ukraine border tensions spike commodity price fears -- S&P Global
How War in Ukraine Could Affect the Global Recovery -- Barrons
As Russia-Ukraine Tensions Heat Up, Beaten-Up Russian Stocks May Be Hard to Resist -- Editorials 24
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine aren’t fully priced into commodities -- Market Watch
1 comment:
Invest in the energy sector and short pharma.
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