My Take On The Russia - Ukraine War

I know the invasion is underway, but a part of me is still in denial. 

This is not what I wanted.

I have been up for almost 22 hours so I will be brief.

Russia will win this military conflict. On that I have no doubt.

Russian intelligence, with the help of many collaborators within the Ukraine government and military, will give the Russian military all the information necessary to attack and wipe out key Ukrainian positions. That has probably already happened.

The Russian air force now own the skies, and their Sukhoi-25s, like the US Air Force's A-10, will make mince meat out of any ground force. 

And then there is Russia's artillery. It will be this weapon platform that will determine how long (or quick) this war will last.

I expect heavy fighting on the Donbass front lines. This is where the bulk of Ukraine's top military forces are located, and they will fight. 

I am already reading reports that along the northern border of Russia, specifically near Kharkiv where I also have family, the border guards are not fighting. I am not surprised on hearing this. This region is dominated by Russian-Ukrainians, and they have no stomach to engage against advancing Russian armor. I also expect little if any fighting on the streets of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city.

I am reading reports that Russia has landed forces near Odessa. I expect fighting in some parts of this city. But it will end quickly. This is another region that has a large Russian-Ukrainian population. 

On a personal note. There was a time when I wanted to buy a house near Odessa on the Black Sea to retire. I had agreed on the price, but in the end it did not happen. It is always strange to reflect on past decisions and wonder where one would be if you had taken a different path.

I do not expect street-to-street fighting in Kyiv. There will be opposition, and a hostile population, but widespread fighting is not going to happen.

Western Ukraine will be Indian country for the Russian military. I can see a lot of fighting and destruction in this part of the country, especially if the Ukrainian leadership decide to fight which I expect some will.

President Zelensky will relocate to Lviv as the fighting approaches Kyiv. From there, he will then flee to the West. I give him a few weeks at best.

I expect tens of thousands of casualties from this war. More if Western Ukraine decides to resort to guerilla warfare. 

In the end the human and economic cost will be enormous. 

I expect 2 - 3 million refugees. Maybe more. Most will flee the country after the war when they realize that there is no future for them. Or it will take too long to rebuild everything.

This is a war of choice. A choice that President Putin decided to take. But the outcome will be Russia owning a broken and destroyed Ukraine, and being responsible for healing and rebuilding it. I shudder when I think of that.

Russia is now a pariah in the international community. It will be the responsibility of the next Russian leader to repair it. When that happens is something that no one knows. 

I am signing off right now. I need sleep. Blogging and my analysis of this war will return when I wake up.

One final note. My 96 year old mother still does not know that Ukraine is being invaded. She grew up in a city 60-70 kilometers West from Moscow, and she has seen it all. 

Thank God my father is not alive. He grew up in a city south of Kiev. He also saw it all.