Bloomberg: JPMorgan Sees Risk of $185 Oil If EU Acts Quickly on Russia Ban
(Bloomberg) -- If the European Union is serious about squeezing Russian oil, it may need to brace for some pain.
A full and immediate ban could displace more than 4 million barrels a day of supplies -- propelling Brent prices up by around 65% to $185 a barrel, JPMorgan warns.
And there wouldn’t be enough appetite or time to re-direct the barrels to China and India, analyst Natasha Kaneva says. However, a gradual phase-out over about four months, similar to the approach taken with Russian coal supplies, could be pulled off without significantly disturbing prices, Kaneva adds.
The bank’s main scenario is much more conservative, estimating a cut in Russian supplies to Europe that’s about half as severe, with about 2.1 million barrels a day disrupted by year-end.
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Update: EU To Impose Full Embargo On Russian Oil Next Week, Will Send Price Above $185 According To JPMorgan (Zero Hedge)
WNU Editor: Such an oil embargo will disrupt supply chains to Europe, thereby guaranteeing shortages and high prices. But Russia will sell its oil elsewhere, and everything should (with time) balance itself out.
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