Service members from Chechen Republic are seen on positions during fighting in Ukraine-Russia conflict in the city of Mariupol, Ukraine March 31. REUTERS/Chingis Kondarov
CNN: Russia shifting focus to show a victory by early May in eastern Ukraine, US officials say
Washington, DC (CNN)Russia has revised its Ukraine war strategy to focus on trying to take control of the Donbas and other regions in eastern Ukraine with a target date of early May, according to several US officials familiar with the latest US intelligence assessments.
More than a month into the war, Russian ground forces have been unable to keep control of areas where they have been fighting. Russian President Vladimir Putin is under pressure to demonstrate he can show a victory, and eastern Ukraine is the place where he is most likely to be able to quickly do that, officials say. US intelligence intercepts suggest Putin is focused on May 9, Russia's "Victory Day," according to one of the officials.
May 9 is a prominent holiday on the Russian calendar, a day the country marks the Nazi surrender in World War II with a huge parade of troops and weaponry across Red Square in front of the Kremlin. The officials say Putin wants to be able to celebrate a victory -- of some kind -- in his war on that day.
But other officials note even if there is a Russian celebration, an actual victory may be further off.
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WNU Editor: I do not see any signs that the Ukraine war is going to end anytime soon. The above observation from a European diplomat is spot on ....
.... A European diplomat said that while the Kremlin is talking optimistically, Putin is preparing for a "Chechnya-style long, drawn-out war, because he, to a certain extent, has nowhere else to go on this."
The Second Chechen war took 9 months before it ended, followed by a nine-year insurgency. The war in Ukraine;s Donbas has been ongoing now for 8 years. I can easily seeing another few more years of warfare but enveloping much of eastern and southern Ukraine with continuous military strikes on Western Ukraine.
10 comments:
perhaps
The West will supply Ukraine with abundant weapons, including long range strike weapons, intelligence support needed to accurately target Russian military and even strike deep into Russia.
Very different situation from Chechnya.
yes... still no word on Bucha and other russian war crimes in the blog?
Even those in Europe who love russians and putin now understood the situation has changed
Russians and putin are the nazis of our time and we need to start seeing world from the pespective how we all in the world are going to deal with this. Keep head in the sand till war crimes will be commited by russian army in Poland Germany and France or finally stand up and face them now....
So many years ago the choice was keep the head in the sand till millions died
I am not optimistic today
What 11:24 said
Russia did not expend 1,100 missiles on Chechnya and certainly not for the 9 years of insurgency.
During the 9 year insurgency how many troops did Russia have stationed in Chechnya and what did they cost. They stood up local Chechnyan troops to replace some of the Russians ones to ease the burden. that will not happen so much in Russia. They have already tapped Donbas and the rest of the non-Russian troops won't work for free except maybe the Muslim ones for "reasons".
The insurgency was rather lower cost. The security services were going to be paid anyway to to spy and counter spy. With Chechnya they had an actual job, which made the better and made the job more than clock punching.
A few of the warlords thankfully were taken out by Russian security services. Those warlords after the First Chechnyan war said they were going on jihad. They crossed into Russia and actually went on jihad. I am glad those bastards are dead.
IMO Russia had to engage in the Second Chechnyan War for two reasons. First, it was to stop the cross border raids. Second, it was to show others, but especially in the Caucasus that Russia was not a paper tiger and that it would win.
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Evidence of the second? Chechnyan fighter are fighting for Russia. They have ulterior motives to be sure that at this point in time align with Russia, but winning the second war was a necessary condition for those Chechnyan soldiers to fight for Russia.
The Russians withdraw from north of Kyiv to redeploy to the east. Spetsnaz were mixed in with the troops who withdrew. Some of them stayed in place to monitor and pick of unwary elements of the Ukrainian advance. It will make the Ukrainians feel uneasy and pin down more Ukrainians troops that could otherwise be shipped east. They should also have a favorable kill ratio, but in the age of drones, who knows.
Air defense on the Belarus side of the border could deny Ukrainian use of some drones north of Kyiv. Sooner or later those get hit.
If Russia feints or goes for Odessa, their amphibs get mauled. The CIA, Pentagon, Brits and Ukrainians can taste it.
If SEALS and Green Berets are not now in Ukraine they will be after May. The will definitely be in the the Odessa, Crimea, Миколаїв Triangle. The Russians will get mauled there.
The longer this goes on the more the pisspants in the upper levels stop pissing themselves and get little braver. They are counting every tank, jet, helo and naval platform. They are keeping tabs on missile use and depletion. They are updating their computer models for future wargames and paying more attention to manufacturing and logistics.
"If SEALS and Green Berets are not now in Ukraine they will be after May. The will definitely be in the the Odessa, Crimea, Миколаїв Triangle. "
How does that differ from providing a no-fly zone"
it will elevate the war to a war between the US and Russia.
A no fly zone is such that the Russians could not pretend to not see it.
Americans on the ground in camis is something the Russians brass could deny to Russian people and reporters.
What are you going to do? Take a picture of a white guy in camis and assert that he is American?
What if the camis have no name, rank or national ID? What are you going to do? Cry?
There were Russian snipers in South Vietnam during the Vietnam War . There were Russian trainers literal manning anti aircraft defenses in North Vietnam. There were Russian pilots flying over North Korea during the Korean War. In both of these cases both sides have nukes.
If you are going to bawl about it, can you cry in public. I want to film it and setup a Youtube channel. Where are you going to cry? I want you to cry for 3 weeks or so, so there will ben enough views to picket some cash.
5:23
Those were my predictions based on past performance of organizations and other gaggles.
April 3, 2022 at 6:19
I don't give a response to uncivil people
6:42, I do not mind giving an acerbic response to someone who pretends to be an ingénue. If you are not an ingénue then you are trying to nudge people with dishonest arguments.
Operation Greif wasn't the first and it wasn't the last. It is the way things are done. It is Real Politik.
Scamper off now.
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