Tuesday, May 17, 2022

Russian Defence Columnist Gives A Damning Assessment On Russia's War In Ukraine On Russian State TV

WNU Editor: Defence columnist Mikhail Khodaryonok is basically saying that you cannot fight a war with half measures. Ukraine and NATO are fully committed that Russia must be defeated on the battlefield, while Russia still regards this war as a "military action". 

He is not alone in voicing this. 

This sentiment is what I have been hearing from all of my friends/family/and contacts in Russia since the start of April. They are frustrated that the Russian military is being held back, and they do not understand why Ukraine's electrical/communications/and critical infrastructure to support the war is still operating. 

As to what is my take. 

 I have a best case and a worse case.

My worst case is Russian President Putin formally declares war against Ukraine, calls for a full mobilization, and destroys/razes Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. It will take a few months to train and position such a new army, but when unleashed it will cause massive destruction that has not been seen since the Second World War. I mentioned at the beginning of this war that this was my biggest fear, and that fear is still there.

My other case/scenario and the one that I expect will happen is that this is going to be a long war along the lines that we have seen for the past two months. And while I do see Russia eventually consolidating the Donbas and southern Ukraine in the coming months with its military, both sides are going to continue to wage war along this front-line for the foreseeable future. What is going to end this war is when Europe will say enough, and force Kyiv to make a deal with Moscow on its terms. 

When that will happen is something that I do not know. But this winter is going to be very rough for the European continent, and I am telling everyone that I know in Europe to get ready and prep for shortages and the high cost of energy.

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