Will Russian Oil Exports Plunge Next Year?

Russian Oil tanker makes a delivery to Shell Refinery Spring 2011 by joecabby2011 used under CC BY-SA 2.0 

OilPrice.com: Russia’s Oil Exports Are Set To Plunge Next Year 

* Russia’s oil exports have been resilient since it invaded Ukraine, falling just 400,000 bpd below pre-war levels despite international sanctions. 

* The EU's embargo on crude oil this December and its embargo on oil products in February will displace 2.4 million bpd of oil. 

* While Russia may be able to find buyers for roughly half of that supply, it seems inevitable that its exports will fall dramatically. 

Nearly seven months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian oil exports have been quite resilient and just 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) below pre-war levels. 

But come December, Russian oil supply could plunge by more than one million bpd after the EU embargo on Russian oil imports by sea enters into force. 

In February, another one million bpd could then come offline due to the EU’s fuel embargo.  

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WNU Editor: The West will need to find alternative oil suppliers, and Russia will need to find new customers. I predict both will succeed, but the disruption in supply chains will only mean higher prices for consumers. 

The only respite that we may have when it comes to oil prices is if the global recession deepens. And in that case it will only mean one thing. We are all suffering.