U.S. Think Tank Says A Russian Defeat In Ukraine Could Mean A Break-Up Of Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin deliver an address. © AFP / Dmitry Astakhov  

Daily Mail: Putin deposed, Russia broken up, and NATO in a face-off with China: As Ukraine sees a path toward victory and a desperate Vladimir hits the panic button, expert argues THIS is how the war could end 

* Putin has spent the last week ramping up his war in Ukraine, from 300,000 conscripts to nuclear threats 

* But his bluster is aimed at hiding the fact that Russia is losing the war, as Ukraine recaptures territory 

* Alp Sevimlisoy, of Atlantic Council think-tank, spoke to MailOnline about what Russian defeat could look like 

* Putin would not survive the defeat, he argues, while Russia itself could break up leaving the West competing with China over the spoils and NATO in a face-off with Beijing 

Land grabs, hundreds of thousand of conscripts thrown on to the front lines, and a nuke for anyone who dares stand in his way: Vladimir Putin has spent the past week doubling down on his war in Ukraine. 

But his bluster belies a simple fact: Russia is losing the war, and he knows it. The despot is desperate. His army is in tatters, his battleplans shot, he's burning through his cash reserves at an unsustainable rate, and winter is looming. 

Meanwhile Ukraine's army continues to advance across the country, giving Kyiv a viable path to victory. Which begs the question: What happens if Russia is beaten?  

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: Atlantic Council's Alp Sevimlisoy is voicing what Russia's political elite believes is the ultimate long-term goal of the US and some of its NATO allies. The break-up of Russia into smaller parts, and complete control and access to its resource and energy wealth. 

This is exactly why the Kremlin and the majority of Russians see the Ukraine war as one that Russia must win at all costs. The alternative would end with the break-up of the country, and its population poor and subservient to the West. 

As to what is my take. 

Russia is not going to break-up, and Putin will survive regardless on what happens in Ukraine. But Putin is turning 70 this Friday, and his days are numbered. It is who may come after Putin that concerns me, and all I see are hardliners who are best positioned to become President if Putin should decide to not run in  the next election .... After Putin: 12 people ready to ruin Russia next (Politico).