Russia's invasion of Ukraine has not gone remotely like Vladimir Putin and his military leaders would have expected back in February.(Kremlin via Reuters: Alexei Druzhinin)
ABC News Australia: Russia's strategy in Ukraine will evolve over winter and into 2023 as Putin hopes to influence the West's response
Russia's strategy for its invasion and subjugation of Ukraine has been evolving constantly. The invasion has not gone remotely like Putin and his military leaders would have expected back in February. They have had to continuously change their "theory of victory".
With winter closing in on Europe, Russia is seeking to hold as much territory as possible while preparing for next year's campaign. What might Russia's options be for 2023, and what are the Russian vulnerabilities Ukraine might attack?
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WNU Editor: This is going to be a long war that will go into 2024. Russian Commander General Sergei Surovikin himself has said that his focus will be to grind the Ukraine army in a war war attrition, while also acknowleding that this is going to take a long time. And facts on the ground in both Russia and Ukraine are indicating that this is what is going to happen.
Russia's war industry is now geared up to fight a long war, and everyone I know in Russia is expecting another massive call-up of reserves in the new year. Russian media itself is prepping the population that this is going to be a long conflict, even though everyone I know in Russia has already accepted that this war is going to be a long one.
I am also one of those who believes this is going to be a long war. And as bad as 2022 has been for Ukraine, I expect 2023 will be worse.
Russia will no longer restrain itself from destroying civilian infrastructure, and it will target the country's economy, or what is left of it. That is why I will not be surprised if all the bridges that cross the Dnieper river will be destroyed soon. And as for Ukraine's electrical grid. By the end of the year much of that will be gone.
This is a major shift for Putin. He has made many decisions during the course of this war that has infuriated the hardliners in Moscow. His reluctance to bomb infrastructure critical to the Ukraine military for the first 7 months of the war. Ignoring the pleas of military commanders in June to call-up reserves. Underestimating the reaction from NATO, and how it is now the main driver of Ukraine war policy and operations.
All of these decisions have been very costly for Russia, and it looks like Putin now realizes that. This is no longer a "special operations". It is now a war.
It was also very telling last week when all of the hardliners who have been condemning Putin for his war strategy and decisions changed to one of praise and support. This is a signal to me that Putin is now accepting the advice of these hardliners, and he will be implementing their recommendations.
In many ways this is not a good sign. Even with the defeat and withdrawal from Kherson hanging in the air, this is the first time that I am seeing unity in the Kremlin on Putin's Ukraine war strategy. All the hardliners and Putin's critics are now on board.
27 comments:
Nice pic of Vlad (I call him Vlad). Sean Connery did an exact pose for "Hunt for Red October".
Putin does strike a many or pensive pose. Macron must be jealous and is dialing his PR person even now. Think of how badly Macron must feel He only has the helicopter to sub video.
Breaking News: From the same WNU author who claims that 80-90% of the Russian population support Putler, NOW claims that 90% of the Kremlin are united behind Putler!
The editor should really look for a job at the Onion.
"This is going to be a long war that will go into 2024."
Putin does know that 2024 is an election year doesn't he? The optics of missile strikes in civilian targets etc, is not a good one for sitting president. Since Democrats often govern the polls by optics, you know Joe Biden will come out and declare victory or things are looking up. Then when they take a down turn he will be angry and will need to do something.
The US will be on a war footing or more of a war footing. Factories will be churning out shells and missiles.
Part of what will makes the difference is who has chips and electronic boards. Can Russia generate enough or buy enough from China? Many Russian weapon systems have not been modernized due to lack of electronics. That would be about 1,000 Russian war helicopters. The ones that have been modernized have been shot down. Not all but significant percent.
If the Russians are lucky they have a bunch of T-62s to refurbish and modernize.
If they are unlucky the have a bunch of newer T-72s to refurbish and modernize.
"Russia will no longer restrain itself from destroying civilian infrastructure"
Has yours truly considered that others will no longer be constrained and go after Russian infrastructure?
There was a big computer hack of a hospital system around Oct 11th. The group behind it appears to be Chinese. The Russian have also engaged in this greenmail and hybrid warfare.
Some people were overdosed and cancer treatments were affected. No one has died yet. If the Kremlin hacks get say 5 kids killed, the US will be compelled to hack the Russian grids and systems.
As bad as it has been for ukraine?..It's. Ore of as bad as it has been for Russia.
There is hope for Russia.
American congressmen and senators are incredibly brave. BAR NONE!
The ?Japan's Prime Minister Warns The Country To Brace Itself For War With China
America is in a proxy war with Russia.
So war is on the horizon or is here and Senator Marky (D) wants to show us how brave he is. He has real power. He can issue subpenusses, contempt of idiots, and sic the IRS on people (no paper trail of course)
World War is on the horizon and this is, where congress critters are making their mark.
“One of your companies is under an FTC consent decree. Auto safety watchdog NHTSA is investigating another for killing people. And you’re spending your time picking fights online. Fix your companies. Or Congress will,” - IMPERIAL Senator Markey
I have a picture of Senator Marky above my bed.
A long war raises the risks of a NATO-Russia war. A war against Ukrainian civilization raises the likelihood the USA provides long range missiles to Ukraine so it too can target Russian civilians. The risks just go in the wrong direction.
Russia should be reminded of this and the message sent by training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16’s using long range missiles.
Why target Russian civilians? Just target bridges and the electrical grid.
The editor's assessment is grim. If the Russians are going to launch a counter offensive it should be a large one. Why? Because it is the logical thing to do. Put the issue to bed.
Hit the enemy hard, Knock him off balance and smite him down. Get inside the enemies decision making cycle and control the battle space.
If they are smart it will be invasion part II with the full force of the Russian state behind it. Pulling in the manpower from the Far East. Carpet bombing the large cities and areas of military transport and build up.
Kiev and Lviv ( and any other significant C&C element) need to be reduced to ashes in the first 24 hrs.
The west should have already set up alternate C&C sites on the outside of the UKIE border...These will have to be effectively jammed or if need be, made special operations targets.
Behind the invading army should be brigades of Internal security troops to assume control of key areas in the occupied zones. (10th Para div Algeria 1960s)
Key to the whole operation will be some element of surprise. This will be hard to do because the the whole border is monitored by west's spy aircraft
It will be a hard fight, because if the west is smart , they are not now idle. In all parts of Ukie land Trenches and bunkers need to be dug and mine fields to put in. Think Korea north of Seoul. That place is just one large fortification.
If Ukies are smart each city will be made into fortified strong holds. If the Russians are smart, they will bypass all cities and bomb them to death like Dresden, Fallujah II and Mosul after ISIS.
So you are talking a real slug fest. Key to the Russian success will be a break through and an EFFECTIVE exploitation of the break thru. Not a halting move. Can the Russian do this? Yes. But it will take "maximum effort" a full mobilization to include forced requisition of any and all civilian equipment to make this happen. You are not keeping anything in Strategic reserve: Tactical and operational reserve? Yes need some there for exploitation ops.
Ukies, they have to hold the line and wear the Ruskies down. Can they do this? Yes. But like any other underdog: historically the numbers of dead have been astronomical. Their sacrifices will be large and bloody.
See what 8:31 wrote? Where in the world is it 422?
Idk 442 was a nice engine
8:31 is smoking hopium or weed at 4:22
9:49
your thoughtful commentary is horse turds
Mr 9:49.
Don't just sit there slathering, how about some constructive criticism and remember, use some self control, no ad hominems.
slathering? you must be typing as the rent boy tends to your fetishes
self control, it will work if you use it
U use too many selfies, wanker
Well it just proves a point. You can lead a student to knowledge, but you cannot make him think.
T
BTW yank don't try to pass your self off as a non yank. we know who you are.
I respect WNU editor and long follower but I sense he still thinks the Soviet Union threat is alive and well in Putin's Russia. It is collapsing. They've lost three battles so far. With a little more effort and a whole lot of US intel, this corrupt regime will be sent packing. They've run out of professional soldiers and equipment. The end is nigh. Nothing can save them.
The Russian have husbanded regular soldiers in their retreat from Kherson. They rotated airborne and new recruits in and the others out. The airborne and most recruits escaped.
True in Donetsk a regular army formation was decimated or much worse, but that is just one formation.
No easily found open source site has provided a detailed run down of the current state of the Russian T.O.E.
A lot of the push in Donetsk I think is by Wagner. They are not regular army although with their experience they may actual be professional in their fighting capability (or just good at shooting 3rd worlders). Problem with veterans is that if you keep them in the fight and do not rotate them out to be trainers and such, you burn them all up. That is what happened in WW2 to the Japanese pilots. The US would rotate vet pilots out. The Japanese kept the pilots into the fight until they were all used up. Thus we had the Marianas Turkey shoot. It was not that the Japanese are that stupid. It was that the Japanese pilots were that green. All the vets were dead.
Good chance that Bakhmut gets taken by the Russians for real this time. They won't do much more.
Good analysis. Not many people know about the pilot usage in WW 2. Pertinent historical example.
Thank you for your comments. We shall see what happens here.
BTW. TOE is a Jarhead term.
Army uses MTOE. Semper Fi.
Peter Zeihan thinks that Russia’s southern supply lines are under such stress that Crimea itself could fall.
https://youtu.be/K9JfO_mI4oQ
These guys are really pushing it. If that is true the Russians are really sucking wind.
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