A Marder armored fighting vehicle is pictured at the Rukla military base in Lithuania. (file photo)
In a flurry of announcements, some of Ukraine's major Western allies pledged this week to send advanced armored combat vehicles to help Kyiv in its fight against Russia's invasion.
Both the United States and Germany said they would provide new powerful weapons to Kyiv: 50 M2 Bradley fighting vehicles from Washington and 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles from Berlin.
The January 5 announcement came a day after France made a similar pledge to send new weapons -- AMX-10 RC armored reconnaissance vehicles -- in a development that marks a clear escalation of Western military support.
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WNU Editor: The UK is now considering sending Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine .... UK considering supplying Ukraine with Challenger 2 tanks to fight Russian forces (SKY News). More here .... UK considers supplying handful of Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine (The Guardian).
In the whole scheme of things this new weaponry is not going to make a difference. 50 M2 Bradley fighting vehicles in a place as huge as Ukraine along a 1000km front-line is not even a drop in the bucket.
7 comments:
The key to all this support is how fast these allies plan to deliver. I suspect, and I have no hard evidence, this is all a sham.
They say yes we will do this and then say..well it will be a few months to get the equipment ready and send it in country.
Knowing all the while that the large offensive will be over by then.
Therefore this re supply is more political rhetoric than sincere effort.
Ten Challengers, i.e. less than a company's worth. Meaningless.
It is ten ad the gesture is almost empty, but not totally. The Russians have many formations that are not up to full strength.
Gus is right. the British PM is all but virtue signaling. There was talk of ending Britain's armor forces 2 or more years ago. So why so stingy?
Also, if they have some mothballed because they do not want the expense of operating a crewing them, why not give them?
I think the Brits have changed their mind on retiring their armor. They have second thoughts.
If they were serious they would give a lot and put in orders for more to the factory. bit that would cost money and other priorities must be more important to the PM.
Not really, since they can be used in a specific breakthrough. 10 challengers equals 30 dead T72
It's a political move, it will signal the arrival of Leo and M1
The 50 Bradleys and 40 Marders (and unknown number of AMX-10 RCs) will field the equivalent of two Russian battalion tactical groups which I think make up an entire brigade. It's limited, but it'll pack a punch on the part of the frontline where they land. After training Ukrainians, they should arrive by early March. Right now Ukraine is fielding two dozen or so mechanized brigades. Those have attrition, but because of donations from former Warsaw Pact and abandoned Russian vehicles, I think Ukraine has more IFVs now than they did at the beginning of the war (but I could be wrong, the last data I saw was some months ago).
What's more important is that it signals the West will be providing armor for Ukraine. It looks like the Greeks have already agreed to wait to receive 26 additional Marders so they can be provided to Ukraine now. And while there are still some 370 Marders on paper still active in the Bundeswehr, there is likely over a thousand Marders in storage. It'll take some time to refurbish and restore them for use, but I would not be surprised if an additional 400 Marders make their way into Ukraine by end of this year. Plus there is an additional 100 Marders that Rheinmetall had on hand that they were willing to provide Ukraine back in April 2022 before Berlin put the kibosh on it. If Berlin allows the company to export them now, that could probably happen in short order.
So only around 100 IFVs by March, but the potential to send another 500 or so in the months afterwards. That can field six whole brigades, or adding 25% to Ukraine's current forces. Not insignificant. Hopefully it'll be done. We should get an inkling after the next Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting on January 20.
And of course now that armor is being sent, we may actually see Leopard II tanks being sent. Probably around 100-200 of those could go. We'll have to see, but I think the prospects of them appearing are now much higher.
And we'll likely see more Gepard SPAA being sent soon. They'll be useful against the drones.
Lots of unknowns and wishful thinking right now, but I think the decision to provide these initial Marders and Bradleys is much more significant than WNU Editor wants us to believe.
Chris
All that is nice. But that heavy equipment will never arrive in time to make a difference. The war as a conventional battle will be over by March / April 2023 time frame. Then the guerrilla war will start.
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