Ukrainian soldiers on the Donbas front-line, as Russia prepares for a possible counter-offensive Credit: Anadolu Agency/Anadolu
The Telegraph: Russia faces defence dilemma as it braces for 'major Ukrainian counter offensive'
Intelligence report from Britain's Ministry of Defence highlights shift in posture by Kremlin forces on the front-line Russia is facing a “dilemma” over where Ukraine will launch an anticipated “major counteroffensive” as it divides its efforts across two locations, the British Ministry of Defence has said.
The intelligence report highlights a general shift in posture by Russian forces from offensive to defensive across the frontline in Ukraine, except around Bakhmut in Donbas.
“The way Russia has worked on improving defences suggests commanders are highly likely preoccupied with the potential for major Ukrainian offensive action,” the report said.
The last major Ukrainian offensive was in November when Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces recaptured Kherson city.
Military analysts have said that Ukrainian commanders may have wanted to build up a supply of hi-tech weapons from their Western backers before launching another offensive.
Read more ....
Update: Ex-NATO chief: Russian forces in Ukraine will be ‘burned through and exhausted’ by end of winter (The Hill)
WNU Editor: In the past few weeks there has been numerous reports like the ones above. There is clearly a concentrated Western media campaign now underway to project future Ukrainian victories and the eventual defeat of Russia that will culminate in the removal of the Russian government.
Is this possible? Maybe.
But what I am hearing and reading from my Russian sources is a completely different narrative. And more importantly, what Ukrainian military officers, officials, and the people that I know in Ukraine are saying.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhnyi interview with the Economist a few weeks ago is still ringing in my ears .... What Ukraine's Military Leadership Is Saying (December 15, 2022). His admission that he only has two fully functional brigades and less than 200,000 soldiers fit for combat was jaw-dropping. He is either purposely giving disinformation, or he is telling the truth.
I do not know the answer, but my friends and family members in Ukraine tell me that he is bluntly telling the truth. And in the case of my relatives, they all see a grim future and they are all looking for ways to flee Ukraine right now.
14 comments:
we will know when the fat lady sings
The self assurances of those for whom time is not an ally.
Like most all proxy conflicts of the past few decades when dealing with Russia/the Soviets, it will come down to attrition mainly. The Russian military is clunky and rough around the edges and has been relatively stagnant, but their ability to switch to a war time posture is a lot faster and efficient than the US once their government is committed. As for Ukraine? They are entirely dependent on the US and maybe the EU just a little bit for the very short term. Our EU allies like nice words, larping at bloated international institutions and pretending to care; as far as signaling virtue when people are looking is concerned. Every bit of Ukraines success will be contingent to exogenous sources, almost entirely the USA and private entities. A dollar goes a lot further in Russia than in the US though, and Once the Russians are in full force with another 1 or 2 500k mobilizations, the Americans will get tired in a year or so of hearing that a few more billion dollars here and there keeps going to Ukraine while they can barely feed and shelter themselves in the Biden economy, and they will lose interest and start the political pressure. Once that happens, we have some rushed BS reason to pull out and leave Ukraine to be fully consumed by the Russian Bear after spending tens or hundreds of billions. The USA itself can be a hugely strong deterrent if it is wielded correctly, but if its not and Russia gets a foothold there with waning US interest, Russia has been historically better with attrition in a war theatre than Americans with the various historic and present major power proxy conflicts. Their loss of the cold war as a whole was the massive economic disparity between the two countries and the politics at the time that isolated Russia and put it in perpetual downturn until the soviet unions collapsed. The USA is by far a greater country in just about every way aside from our obvious cultural and political weaknesses mainly, but Russia is a lot more organically resilient the closer to home the conflict is. Russia will ultimately experience net gains from this conflict in the long term, but the western focus will be nearsighted along with their strategy. Now if anything Nuclear happens, like a dirty bomb in Russia, thats unprecedented and anything goes. The nice thing about dealing with Russia Vs China is that the US and Russia are very familiar with each other thanks to the decades of the cold war, so the tit for tat proportionality expectations and the expectations in general wont be hard to navigate to avoid significant misstep.
IDK, but Russia did move 7 battalions to the Kreminna-SVatove front. That front is one, where they were digging 2 or 3 defensive lines, which begs the question. If they have defensive lines dug, why not fill them with fresh recruits? Unless maybe the fresh recruits hold like superheated molasses or the recruits are not in the pipeline?
I thought the Russian had people to spare and did not have to jockey them around to apparently backfill.
How is Russia training the new recruits? Are their mothers teaching them how to shoot? Supposedly Putin threw the training cadres onto the front. So now Belarus is training Russian recruits. However, Belarus has a limited number of trainers.
Putin seems to be gathering some of his best troops of what is left in Belarus for another run at Kyev. He better get it or he will be swinging form a rope hoisted by other Russians. Last item the road to Kyev as fairly open and crossing the border meant driving through a crossing gate. Now there are tank traps, mines, kill zones and more. Ras putin will chew up his best teaming troops. Putin's mechanized brigade in Belarus is not going to be further decimated. It will be gutted.
I hear tell that rail service inside Russia is spotty. People unlike WNU do not like the war.
But after months of fighting in bakumut with the majority of the Russian army/ reinforcements and they can’t deny the Ukraine defensive lines yet?? What’s wrong with the Russian army should have take lm this town months ago
Bakhmut isn't being attacked by the "majority of the Russian army", it's mainly Wagner with probably some support from regulars. it seems to have forced Ukraine to reinforce the front with reserves, and combined with the activity in Belarus, probably discouraged another offensive in the north or towards Melitopol
You’re wrong they have been trying for months and failing miserably….
Supposedly Ukrainian casualties are horrific. 11:47 is right. If Ukraine tries a major offensive, it will be their version of the battle of the bulge. All resources thrown into one major offensive that will burn out the last of their army and hasten their own defeat. This isn't a game. Alot of people are dying and our so called "leaders" don't care. Unbelievable really.. there's no words
I read the ISW’s daily report on this everyday and they have done a good job on keeping to the facts and not going to far one way or the other. I do not see Russia getting to a 500k number unless they force conscription. I also think Russia is in trouble, however I do not see a complete victory this Winter and think this will drag on for a good portion of 2023. I could be wrong, thought Russia would just invade the areas they are now trying to hold onto, but look what happened.
Europe will get exhausted before Ukraine or Russia.
https://twitter.com/dilanpcook/status/1612042270634831872
why aren’t US media covering the massive protests in France over inflation and cost of living?
12:50 good point. EU is no shape too keep supplying Ukraine
No thing more to say here. All of the above comments have merit.
But the idea that the Russian military is exhausted and somehow not capable of anymore fighting is just more narrative propaganda.
The full might of the Russian army has not been utilized. The offensive will be in the next 30 to 60 days and in typical Russian fashion it will probably be one of bulldozer and steam roller instead of blitzkrieg.
They need to use the full power of their air force and massive troop attacks.
Like Grant in 1865, push and keep pushing until the enemy either breaks or dies.
But who knows . It is the Russians to lose ....and they just might create their own defeat.
next 30 to 60 days and in typical Russian fashion it will probably be one of bulldozer and steam roller instead of blitzkrieg.
January is almost 1/3rd over. Winter is 40% over. We were promised huge Russian offensives.
Mr Nobody will be singing the same song in February. Then in March he give the excuse of Spring the rains and the mud.
I see Russian boots diminishing that makes its military toothless after this war.
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