Ukrainian military fire an anti-aircraft weapon, in Bakhmut, Ukraine, January 10. REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne
Moon of Alabama: Ukraine SitRep - Media Ignorance, Counter-Artillery War, Three Lost Armies
Yves Smith asks: What if Russia Won the Ukraine War but the Western Press Didn’t Notice?
She points to several headlines which, despite decisive Russian victories like its taking of Soledar, present the Ukraine as winning the war:
Nevertheless, Soledar has fallen and the loss of Bakhmut looks baked in, absent horrific Russian errors. The so-called Zelensky line is breaking even before Russia has put its recently-mobilized forces to work in a serious way. Regular commentators are waiting for the Russian hammer to fall, although Russia may simply grind more forcefully by pressing harder at more points along the very long line of contact. Remember one concern on the Russian side is avoiding “winning” in a way that leads to NATO panic and desperate action ... not that the Collective West’s fragile emotional state can be readily managed.
With that context, you’d expect some members of the press to have worked out that things are not going very well for Ukraine and the classic cowboy movie rescue of the calvary riding over the hill (here in the form of tanks and artillery) will be too little, too late.
Instead, the media seems to be trying to integrate snippets of facts on the ground with the heroic tale of inevitable Ukraine victory.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: A lot of details in this report/analysis. What caught my eye was the importance of Bakhmut to the Ukraine military and the massive army that has been deployed to hold it ....
.... Soledar and Bakhmut are bleeding the Ukrainian army dry. That is of relevance. Look at the insane number of Ukrainian units deployed on that only 50 kilometer (30mi) long sector of the front (see map below).
Source: Military Land Deployment Map - bigger
I count the equivalent of some 27 brigade size formations in that area. The usual size of a brigade is some 3,000 to 4,000 men with hundreds of all kinds of vehicles. If all brigades had their full strength that force would count as 97,500 men. In a recent interview the Ukrainian military commander Zaluzhny said that his army has 200,000 men trained to fight with 500,000 more having other functions or currently being trained. The forces which are currently getting mauled in the Bakhmut area constitute 50% of Ukraine's battle ready forces.
Regular readers of this blog know that for the past month I have been stressing the importance of Bakhmut in this war. That after the battle for Mariuopol last year, this is now the biggest battle of the war.
Now we know the numbers. On both sides there are probably over 200,000 soldiers involved in the fight, and the Russian military is holding the advantage in fire-power.
10 comments:
The article was a confirmation of what has been stated time and again, on this blog. Bakhmut is a meat grinder. Zelinski and his minions pinned a lot of hope and propaganda on it. Now it is coming back to bite them. A lot of troops dead and soon, nothing to show for it.
The three army concept is not far from wrong. Time is not on the ukies side. If Zelinski had any guts he would have tried to cut a peace deal with the Russians instead of sending raw recruits off to the slaughter house.
Zelinski and his minions are pathetic.
Very true indeed
One of the reasons my opinion of this blog has declined in the past year is the increasing links to Moon of Alabama, a blog that was never previously linked to by WNU Editor and written by a conspiracy theorist. But soon after reputable blogs and news outlets started switching their early pessimistic reports (which WNU Editor was more than happy to link) to more optimistic ones (which correlated to WNU Editor to suddenly stop linking to them), it seemed WNU Editor started hunting for any blog in English that would report doom to Ukraine, and Moon of Alabama seemed to have won that prize.
This is a guy who mostly links either to himself or directly Russian controlled outlets, not independent and reputable news outlets.
It's one thing to be skeptical of the more optimistic Western commentators. While I respect people like General Ben Hodges, I always find his analysis to be overly optimistic. But Moon of Alabama and WNU Editor have too frequently gone too far in the other direction. If one listened only to them, one would have assumed the entire Ukrainian army had been destroyed multiple times. Yet Kyiv did not fall. There was no great encirclement and destruction of the Ukrainian army in the Donbas. Ukraine was able to pull off two great victories (Kharkiv and Kherson). MOB and WNU was completely in the wrong of their analysis in these circumstances, yet we have never seen a post explaining why they were wrong and what they have learned. It's just always more dire predictions and a plea that Ukraine please, please surrender to the Russians.
Far from having several armies worth of equipment completely destroyed, most analysts believe Ukraine now has more equipment in most categories than what they originally began the war with (due to Western aid or captured Russian equipment) with the exception of aircraft. While Russia still outnumbers Ukraine (though much of their stuff cannot go to Ukraine given Russia's huge size), the gap has shrunk to Ukraine's favor. That does not mean Ukraine is out of the danger zone.
The issue now is not whether Ukraine could hold Bakhmut, Soledar, etc. They probably could. It's whether that is the best use of its current military resources given the needs to 1) prepare for some kind of Russian general offensive in the late winter or spring, and 2) prepare for Ukraine's own next offensive. Does this Verdun portend the end of Ukrainian resistance like WNU Editor and Moon of Alabama believe? Or is this another repeat of their declaration that the Russian advance into Lysychansk and Severodonetsk meant Ukraine was defeated before the Russians were defeated in subsequent two Ukrainian offensives? Only time will tell. But if we go by the accuracy of their previous predictions, the Ukrainians will do much better than they are predicting.
It's entirely feasible that the war might end with some Ukrainian territorial concessions to Russia (in the sense that some of the currently post-2022 or post-2014 occupied territory will continue to be occupied by Russia). But Russia has squandered its chance at regime change, and any insistence of keeping Ukraine territory will kill any attempt to force Ukraine to agree to not join NATO.
Chris
"This is a guy who mostly links either to himself or directly Russian controlled outlets, not independent and reputable news outlets."
100% agreed. Been a long time reader of the blog. These things get noticed. WNU also said the comments section would remain closed until the war ended, because Google might close down the blog. The reality is he didn't like how a lot of comments put him on the spot on nearly every article he wrote concerning his anti-ukraine bias and his pro-russian agenda.
Guess he changed his mind later so as to not be a hypocrite. The blog is most certainly pro-russian just not a overt about it. It really has declined.
If the Ukrainians have more equipment than when they started then why is their Senior leadership saying they need hundreds of tanks and armored personnel carriers? Your comment makes no sense. And if they have so much captured Russian equipment, why are they not repairing it? This is a non starter. Because they cannot, they have not the resources or ability.
Ukraine is a basket case. Between its factories/infrastructure being destroyed and its losses, it has become the dependent of the west. This is a fact that most people recognize.
Moon of Alabama and WNU provide a service, and a valuable one. They give you the other side of the MSM/DC narrative. They also report things you will never see on the MSM or be revealed by Washington or Brussels.
Are these guys infallible? Absolutely not. But they do a much better job than CNN, The NY Times, BBC or WP.
BTW. Moon of Alabama is not a conspiracy blog. Your attempt to discredit them is bs. Yes they do report on events that the mainstream does not like, then the MSM calls them Conspiracy nuts. But there are many times, like the Hunter Biden computer situation, the truth comes out and you find MOA was right all along.
WNU and MOA have not stated that Bakkmut is the end of the Ukrainian army. What they have said is that the Ukrainians can have an Ardennes Offensive all they want, but it will not change the outcome of this war. Bakhmut was a waste of resources that could have been used to buy the Ukies more time, but Zelinski sent them in to the Grinder.
What they have said, and I concur, is Time is on the Russians side and unless the Russians really screw this up, the Ukrainians are going to lose.
It comes down to economies of scale. Even Milley said that the probability if the Ukrainians winning is low. The Ukrainian Generals say they need hundreds of pieces of equipment to win.
So are these guys conspiracy theorists too?
Western press reports are now all suspect. Even the Intel from these guys all gets washed as it goes up the chain and cannot be relied on.
But outliers that appear can tell you a lot. Like the Ukies first said their casualties were over 100,000 then backed off. Statements of truth do appear like the Leader of Mozart group or reports from people returning from the front. Or ukie troops using their own automobiles at the front or NGOs saying supplies disappear before getting to the troops. The Ukrainian generals interview in the Economist should have been a wake up call. But listening to you, it is being ignored.
But I will agree on this point, The mistakes of the Russian leadership are noteworthy. Other things do not make sense. why are the Ukies still able to fly? Why are national leaders still allowed to list Kiev. Why are cities not getting the ARCLIGHT treatment. It certainly does not make sense when you look at how the US conducted operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
But as seen here, you will continue to believe what you want. It may be over soon and it will not be pretty. This is a long term game for the DC Blob. The goal is not to win. If they do win that is great, but if it devolves into a long term guerrilla war that is great too. The ultimate goal is to tie the Russians down, and it is working so far. The Ukies are pawns in a larger game.
You can complain all you want about the editor, but he is more in touch with reality that the Ukie Rah rah team.
He did not come up with these gems.......The snake island boys fought to the bitter end, Russian forces are all throwing down their arms and surrendering, Putins support is at all time low, the Russian people do not support the war, and the Ghost of Kiev is going to save us all.
You get the picture.
What the Western press HAS noticed
1. Russia has failed in its aim after a year-long invasion that was supp[osed to be a month-long war.
2. Western nations further united against Russia.
3. Russia forced to seek new markets and allies.
4. Russian economy a mess
5. The large scary Bear no longer so scary.
Waaaaaaahhhhhhh, the other commenters don't share my psychosis!!
WNU has used Moon of Alabama before this year. It was somewhat rare but constant, A smattering here and there.
WNU used it when Jay from Kamloops used to post.
9:39
Our Harvard Phi Beta Kappa has returned. Proving once again that the intellectual capacity of some these retards is at the moron level.
I looked up Moon of Alabama 3 weeks ago. Or at least I tried. It is harder to find information on the Moon of Alabama blogger than on Simon Black International Man of mystery. I found about 2 entries on Simon. They were bankruptcy or fraud allegations/charges in Hong Kong and Singapore.
As I have previously stated, Simon Black posts are one of the two reasons I stopped reading Zerohedge. The other was they linked to the Strategic Culture Foundation (A Russian front think tank with a sprinkling of WASP Quislings). If I had the choice of pulling the lever on Snowden or a SCF Quisling, it would be the latter. It does not matter that the owner of Zerohedge has a dad who was in Bulgarian intelligence or that he blogs from Bulgaria. If you live in a lower cost country, why move to an expensive one and lower you standard of living? Besides I have relative buried in prestigious communist military cemeteries. You cannot pick you 1/2 your relatives and you cannot pick the times you live in.
Who did I expected the author of Moon of Alabama to be. I expected them to be an activist, journalist, USG employee, politician, or political staff member who was deep, deep blue.
What did I find? nothing.
Suppose that Moon of Alabama is a Russian or something like that? The government is monitoring him to see who goes there, etc. or they are incompetent. IDK
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