Ukraine Is Bracing Itself For A Major Russian Offensive

Ukrainian soldiers watch as smoke billows during fighting in Soledar. AP  

Anna Nemtsova, Daily Beast: Putin’s Secret Attack Plan Would Be Ukrainian Nightmare 

KYIV—Ukraine is braced for a major new offensive that could begin within weeks. One of President Zelensky’s key insiders told The Daily Beast that they expect a looming Russian move to encircle the country with a simultaneous attack on three fronts. 

Rustem Umerov, a member of the team negotiating with Russia, said the Kremlin was preparing for a fresh advance which could begin as soon as February. The assault would come from the north, over the Belarusian border, from the Russian strongholds in the east of Ukraine, and from the south, where the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea was seized by Vladimir Putin’s forces in 2014 and nearby cities of Melitopol and Zaporizhzhia are now also under Russian control. 

“Russians are encircling us from 240 degrees, attacking from the Black Sea, from Belarus and the Luhansk and Donetsk regions,” Umerov said.  

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WNU Editor: I usually myself in disagreement with the above author Anna Nemstsova. But she does have good sources in Ukraine, and if they are telling her that this is what they expect, this is what they expect. A three pronged attack by Russia in the coming weeks. 

As to what is my take on a future Russian offensive. I certainly do not know the date or any specifics on what the Russian military will be doing. I do know that Russia is preparing for the war to escalate significantly in the coming weeks, and they expect Ukraine will be forced to launch attacks against Russian command and control centers in Russia itself that will include targets in Moscow .... Russia Deploys Air Defense Systems Around Moscow (Update) (January 19, 2023). 

I also expect any Russian offensive to be conducted in a manner whose main focus is to not seize territory but to degrade and destroy the Ukraine army. Since much of Ukraine's active combat units are in the eastern part of the country, this is where I expect most of the fighting will take place. 

And as for using Belarus as a stage to launch an offensive against Ukraine in the North. I have been hearing reports that Russia has anywhere from 20,000 to 80,000 soldiers deployed in that country. That is not enough soldiers to make a difference. But I would not be surprised if they will conduct incursions to at least bog down a portion of the Ukraine army to defend Kyiv and its northern regions.