Ukrainian military prepare to fire a mortar round, in the region of Donetsk, Ukraine, December 31. REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne
Moon of Alabama: Ukraine - The Big Push To End The War
Over Christmas I had a short talk with a relative about the war in Ukraine. He asked me who would win and was astonished when I said: "Ukraine has zero chance to win." That person reads some German mainstream news sites and watches the public TV networks. With those sources of 'information' he was made to believe that Ukraine was winning the war.
One may excuse that with him never having been in a military and not being politically engaged. But still there are some basic numbers that let one conclude from the beginning that Russia, the much bigger, richer and more industrialized country, had clearly all advantages. My relative obviously never had had that thought.
The 'western' propaganda is still quite strong. However, as I pointed out in March last year propaganda does not change a war and lies do not win it. Its believability is shrinking.
Former Lt.Col. Alex Vershinin, who in June pointed out that industrial warfare is back and the 'West' was not ready to wage it, has a new recommendable piece out which analyses the tactics on both sides, looks ahead and concludes that Russia will almost certainly win the war:
Wars of attrition are won through careful husbandry of one’s own resources while destroying the enemy’s. Russia entered the war with vast materiel superiority and a greater industrial base to sustain and replace losses. They have carefully preserved their resources, withdrawing every time the tactical situation turned against them. Ukraine started the war with a smaller resource pool and relied on the Western coalition to sustain its war effort. This dependency pressured Ukraine into a series of tactically successful offensives, which consumed strategic resources that Ukraine will struggle to replace in full, in my view. The real question isn’t whether Ukraine can regain all its territory, but whether it can inflict sufficient losses on Russian mobilized reservists to undermine Russia’s domestic unity, forcing it to the negotiation table on Ukrainian terms, or will Russian’ attrition strategy work to annex an even larger portion of Ukraine.
Read more ....
Update: What’s Ahead in the War in Ukraine (Alex Vershinin, Russia Matters).
Update #2: Ukraine war’s outlook in 2023: Harder fighting against a tougher Russian army (Seth Cropsey, The Hill)
WNU Editor: I think it is too early to predict where the Russia - Ukraine war is heading. A lot can happen in the coming weeks. But the 3 posts above give a sobering analysis on why Ukraine cannot win this war.
14 comments:
Modern weapons and drones and the will to fight trump troop numbers … that is why Russia will lose…
WNU..
doesn't modern military history suggest it is incredibly difficult to win a war in another country?
Sure, they are neighbours, and Russia has the resources to afford the logistics and all.. and about 3-4 times the people.. BUT
How come they haven't managed so far?
Sure, sure the West
But if the West doesn't stop supporting Ukraine, do you think Russia will win then?
If the West keeps support Ukraine, war a stalemate though Russia with their new offensives might take back some previously won territory.
If the West increases their support of Ukraine with Western weapons, Russia is going have a very difficult time, even with 500K reserves and Belarus entering the war which may draw Poland in.
It the West gets bored and support start to lag, Russia will wear Ukraine down.
So really it is all about the Will of the West vs Russian Will.
I do worry about Belarus and Poland getting sucked in, then we see this war going in all sort of bad unexpected directions. I also think Russian might go into Moldova and I think that is actually a bad idea for them because the West will respond with a flood of Western weapons and logistics.
War is bad for all.
Wow, what a garbage assessment from a bizarre site. The author uses on Russia propoganda sources which have been repeatedly proven false and relies on the premise that Russia has used its resouces well and Ukraine will run out.
A quick example where he hides facts. The Ukraine general said he needed and he couldnt win Melitopol without 300 tanks, 600 ifvs and X artillery.
The US just approved 50 Bradleys(which are almostbtanks and can murder Russian armor), Germany just approved 40 Marders while France is sending AMX-10s. Another country has sent 100 Leopard1s to Ukraine.
Expect to see more armor flow in. The general asked for more than he needed watch the numbers come close tho.
Russia is the one that wont be able to source armor.
One thing to also consider - aside from material resources - is will among troops. Conviction to fight, the will to kill and sacrifice - is typically higher in the defending country, and rightfully so. In addition, any meaningful occupation will be bloody and costly, so even if it were a military success for Russia, it would be a nightmare to keep. Years of assassinations, sabotage, terror. And sure, the Russians have proven effective at getting rid of terrorists in other places. But this is Ukraine. A whole different ball game.
A smart move would be to end this nightmare and find a save-facing way out. Plus it would be the right thing to do. As a concession, if we (the West) truly have broken a promise (this should be publicly debated and is - but should be elevated as it is at the core of the conflict) with the expansion of NATO, then we should also make some concessions. Otherwise our word will seriously be in doubt, and this would not only be shameful but a strategic mistake too.
People thought the Taliban couldn’t win with such limited resources. Russia or USA couldn’t defeat them. Same story north Vietnam.
The USA was defeated in last two wars by rifles and road side bombs
2 components for russia to win the war.
1 military
2 modern military equipments
russia does not have both.
Simple econ 101..economies of scale.
I will say it again as I have said before on this blog for the last six months
This war is not the ukies to win.
It is the Russians to lose.
We are now in the 30 to 90 day window.
Moon of Alabama also sees this.
Both sides are gearing up.
The Nato idiots confession that the minsk accords were a shame have ended any hope of negotiated settlement due to bad faith bargining.
The Russians now see this as do or die. The Ukies see the same.
The US has sent combat troops to the Europe theater as a flexibility tactic to keep the perception that NATO intervention is a possibility. But they delayed ATACMS and patriot batteries. They do not really want to enter the war.
All the talking is now done.
Putin met with his generals, Belarusian president and the Chinese.
Biden had zelinski (by himself) flown to dc to talk face to face.
Outcome...Russian offense drive achieves goals. Kiev government is destroyed or exiled. West celebrates huge victory by twisting the narrative that the Russians failed to take the whole country. Which will not BTW be the Russian objective.
Guerrilla war goes on for years. Disruptions and attempted revolutions will be conducted in all Russian border states Kazakhstan, Georgia, Moldova etc...
Ukraine will be a basket case cripple for years. Russia will never achieve the prosperity she could of obtained.
The US progressive monster achieves is goals and continues domination of Europe as it looks to China for its next threat. US state department and rest of BLOB celebrate as Russian and Ukrainian dead are used for fertilizer in next year's potato crop.
It is now the calm before the storm.
Wait and see.
What a strange site to source. Really scraping the bottom barrel there, wnu.
If the west wins this, it will be an ugly win. Trans and pedo pervert culture will be forced down the throat of all who oppose them.
The US wasn't fighting the war with the same rule of engagement practiced by it's opponent, the US was fighting while putting the life of non combattant in consideration
If you are not open minded enough to take into consideration the many varying viewpoints of people that have probably been more exposed than yourself to the ramifications of this conflict you should at least keep your trap shut and let WNU keep doing his work as he sees fit. The majority of visitors to his blog, I'm sure, would appreciate it.
The truth is.....
The US had some of the toughest ROE. But that did not stop it from bombing weddings, and flattening towns.
War is an ugly horrid thing. Rockets and bombs are unthinking tools and men make mistakes.
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