Newsweek: Ukraine Could Free Crimea by End of Summer: Ex-U.S. General
Ukrainian troops—if sufficiently supported with expanded Western military aid—can break through Russian lines and reach the occupied Crimean Peninsula by the end of the summer, the former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe Ben Hodges has told Newsweek.
Amid concerns about the slow pace and mounting losses of Ukraine's nascent counteroffensive in the south and east of the country launched early in June, Hodges called on President Joe Biden's administration to underscore its commitment to Ukrainian victory by providing advanced weapons like the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System—colloquially known as the ATACMS—so far denied Kyiv for fear of provoking Russian retaliation.
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Update: A retired US general says Ukraine could recapture Crimea before the summer's out, but only if the US gives it the ammunition it needs (Insider)
WNU Editor: The Russians in Crimea, who make up 80% of the population (if not more), will see the Ukrainian army not as liberators, but as invaders. It will be a carnage for both sides.
There is history that can be looked at to predict what will happen. It took the German 11th Army 8 months of heavy fighting to finally capture Crimea in 1942 (link here). The casualty numbers and destruction of that campaign was astronomical. and I predict the same will happen if Ukraine's military forces enter Crimea in the coming months.
8 comments:
Hodges is delusional or dishonest.
Ukrainians I’m Crimea is unrealistic
The only reason to say this kind of stuff is to ensure that the people who want you to say it never release the videos of your adventures on Epstein Island.
The Russians in Crimea, who make up 80% of the population (if not more), will see the Ukrainian army not as liberators, but as invaders. It will be a carnage for both sides.
- didn't you say the exact same thing pre-invasion that Ukraine's Russians would make a russian invasion easy.
Laughable.
Ben Hodges has been saying Ukraine will take Crimea by end of whatever period for a long time now. While I consider him smart and knowledgeable, his predictions simply have not come true. He's just overly optimistic. He doesn't seem to recognize the constraints the Ukrainian armed forces are facing. Like many Western military commenters, I put him in the "Gentleman's C" grade range (in contrast, I would only put Michael Kofman as an "A" and WNU Editor gets by with a D+).
While it is possible that Ukraine can achieve a breakout, and that it might lead to a collapse of the Russian lines, I think a more realistic optimism would be for Ukraine to take Melitopol or reach the Sea of Azov. Crimea would be the next major offensive then if that happens.
Chris
Post II
WNU Editor seems to think that any ethnic Russian in Ukraine must be ultimately loyal to Moscow and would fight to the death. This is what he believed prior to the war, and what he predicted at its beginning with his claims that Kharkiv would fall without a fight and military resistance would collapse quickly due to defections and treason. That didn't happen. Those views seem to only reflect a small minority of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, most of whom were already fighting in the Donbas insurgent groups.
Crimea has always been the least comfortable oblast in Ukraine. And many Russians there identify as Russians, not Russian-Ukrainians. But it is also important to remember that the population of Crimea did vote for independence by a substantial majority back in 1991 and had mostly reconciled itself to Kyiv before 2014's Russian invasion. Absent Russia's invasion, Crimea would likely have never seceded.
Many did quickly change sides in the aftermath of Russia's sudden and successful invasion of 2014. After all, Moscow won. The decision seemed to be final. There is a solid core of hard Russian nationalists there. But I think much of the support is soft. Ukraine taking back its lost lands is not the same as a foreign invader waging a racial war. Crimeans already know what life was like under Ukraine for almost 25 years.
We know there are pro-Ukrainian partisan groups operating in Crimea, sabotaging logistics and providing information. And there was a huge scandal when a Russian TV station did an "interview people on the street" video and a Crimean teenager voiced support for Ukraine. So I think support for Russia in Ukraine is much weaker than WNU Editor thinks, especially if the Ukrainians are able to get there.
Any Crimeans who want to fight Ukraine are probably already doing so. The current political elite in Crimea who welcomed the Russian invasion are more likely to flee across the Kerch Strait than stay to fight. I believe a solid majority would prefer to keep their head down and try to avoid any potential reprisals. They just want to live in their homes at peace and can accept their rulers being based in either Kiev or Moscow. The group of pro-Ukrainians willing to actively help the Ukrainian war effort is the smaller group, but should Ukraine enter the peninsula, their numbers will likely grow. As it'd be obvious Ukraine will win by then if they are successful enough to enter Crimea.
There will be no WWII style battles in Crimea for the same reason there have been no WWII style battles in the war at all. Any Ukrainian operation in the Crimea will only come once the shore of the Sea of Azov is retaken, and that means Ukraine will destroy the Kerch Bridge and interdict any Russian supplies there. We won't see any battles there harder than what happened in Kherson. It's possible a remnant of Russian forces will force a siege of Sevastapol, but rather than storm it, the Ukrainians will likely just starve them out rather than engage in a Bakhmut style attack.
I doubt we will know what will actually happen in Crimea if the Ukrainians get there before 2024 though. There will be at least a third and possibly a fourth year of war unfortunately.
Chris
Hodges has never been right on any of his predictions. He is as bad as Barry McCaffery was during Afghanistan, if not worse.
The Crimeans were treated poorly by the ukies and will never go back. Just like the Donbass.
Crimea will never be given up by the Russians. The Russians will fight to the last regiment to keep that area. If you have not mentioned the strategic significance this area has , then you are not being truthful in you analysis.
Chris is banging the Kofman drum again. That guy is a political hack, who has never been in the service or in a combat zone. Best described as a neocon military think tank nerd. I would trust him as much as I would trust billy Kristol. Both suck.
Academics are notoriously wrong when it comes to battlefield outcomes. They are in a category of intellectuals like Robert Strange MacNamara of the "best and brightest" fame.
Yes and that turned out really well.
I would trust Igor Girkin before I would trust Kofman. And I know where both individuals politic positions are. But Girkin at least has more "brutal honesty" and does not pull any punches.
That is why he gets a look rather some think tank jockey spilling a party line bs story covered in nice words.
It is typical to see some of these pro Ukrainians blog posters say the same thing over and over again. The russians are doomed. The Ukrainians will win. The Russians ar falling apart. the ukies are gaining ground.
Here is some ugly truth for you
the grave yards in the Ukraine are so full right now that if you have a non military family death, that person has to wait to get in the ground.
Here is another one. All these tanks being destroyed? where are you going to get replacement crews in 2-3 months? BTW it is said many Ukrainians do not want to be crewman on Leos. Why? Because they are the primary targets for Russian soldiers who want the bonus cash for knocking one out.
There are tid bits you never hear about. There is also the one that Ukies are purposely now damaging the leos so they do not have to advance in a what has become a moving target box.
Anyway. Do not get carried away and look at the hard facts.
a. Break thru russian defensive belt? Probably not going to happen
b. Dam Bust...Now we hear that ukies are going to use that new "open area" for a major assault.
c. So Cui Bono on the dam destruction?
d. Russian will probably do nothing about the storm shadow attacks in the Crimea. But who knows. Patience is a sealed room with only so much air.
e, No one is still dialing down. There is still talk of NATO forces taking south Ukraine around the Odessa area.
For the Ukies, time is not on thier side and they need to fall back and defend (best plan).
Russians: They need to hold what they got and take the Odessa area if they can.
Either way no one is backing down, because they do not have to.
America is fine with ukies dying.
Russia feels this is a do or die conflict so they,
being fatalistic slavs,
have adopted a "whatever it takes no matter how long it takes" stance.
BTW Some eggHead Russian (must be kofman's brother or evil twin) came out with an article that Russia should go with 1st use of Nukes.
Not surprising, egg heads have always been dangerous to the rest of us.
I prefer the retired US Army colonels like MacGregor & others rather than the retired generals. The colonels appear to be shrewd, trustworthy & give honest assessments. The generals, like Petraeus have the Fuhrer bunker mentality, the Ukrainian army is attacking with brigades that no longer exist & will March into Moscow in weeks, etc, etc... I wonder how those blokes made general? The brown noses might give it away....
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