Is Cuba Next If Venezuela Falls?

....embargo, together with highest-level sanctions, will be placed on the island of Cuba. Hopefully, all Cuban soldiers will promptly and peacefully return to their island!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 30, 2019

Kenneth Underwood, Yahoo News: 'If Venezuela falls, Cuba is next': Strategist

The chaos in Venezuela could take down more than just the Maduro regime, according to one strategist.

“The Cubans are the ones who are running the show in Venezuela,” Bulltick Chief Global Markets Strategist Kathryn Rooney Vera told Yahoo Finance’s “On the Move” on Wednesday. “As soon as Venezuela falls, what we are going to see is Cuba fall in its wake.”

Cuba is among numerous countries including Russia, China, and Iran that have stood firm behind President Nicolás Maduro.

President Donald Trump has threatened action against those backing the current regime, tweeting:

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WNU Editor: I do not see the Communist regime falling any time soon in Cuba, even with the loss of Venezuelan oil and aid.  Maybe in a decade or two a change will happen, but definitely not today. The Latin American government that is most vulnerable if the Maduro regime in Venezuela falls is the President Ortega's government in Nicaragua.

Cuba Is Active In Propping Up The Maduro Regime In Venezuela

How Has Maduro Survived? With Lots of Help From Cuban Operatives

Ethan Bronner, Alex Vasquez and David Wainer, Bloomberg: How Has Maduro Survived? With Lots of Help From Cuban Operatives

The men who ripped Carlos Guillen’s toenails out and tightened a plastic bag over his face at counterintelligence headquarters in Caracas were Venezuelan. But the officers overseeing his torture were Cuban.

What immediately gave them away was how they spoke Spanish, said Guillen, a former lieutenant in the Venezuelan military who was accused of treason and, after being placed under house arrest and escaping, fled to Colombia.

Accents were a tip-off, too, for Maria Martinez Guzman. She was on the Univision team that scored an interview in February with embattled Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and she said she was amazed by what she witnessed: Cubans in suits and earpieces telling Maduro aides, wearing jeans, what to do. The president was so angered by the journalists’ questions that he ordered the crew briefly detained and then thrown out of the country.

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WNU Editor: The involvement of Cuba's military and intelligence services in Venezuela have been known for a long time .... Wall Street Journal: A Dozen High Level Cuban Military Officers And Thousands Of Intelligence Agents Are Now In Venezuela (May 22, 2017). My one contact in Caracas told me at the beginning of the year that most of the men who were surrounding and protecting the area around the Presidential compound in Caracas are Cuban, as well as a few very "white looking" men that he assumed were Russian.

Cuba Will Lose Its Oil Supply If Opposition Leader Juan Guaidó Takes Over The Venezuelan Government

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro speaks next to Cuba's President Miguel Diaz-Canel during their meeting at the Miraflores Palace in Caracas, Venezuela May 30, 2018. REUTERS/Marco Bello

Wall Street Journal: Cuba’s Reliance Upon Venezuela for Cheap Oil Looms as Potential Threat

Any government under opposition leader Juan Guaidó is expected to quickly halt oil shipments between the socialist allies.

HAVANA, Cuba—The potential collapse of President Nicolás Maduro’s regime poses a threat to Cuba, which relies on Caracas for about 28% of the island’s oil needs.

Venezuela’s opposition says the government’s longstanding oil-barter agreement with Cuba is irrational, coming amid an economic free fall at home, and benefits a Communist dictatorship it reviles.

If Juan Guaidó, who is recognized by the U.S. and about 50 other countries as Venezuela’s legitimate head of state, wrests control of the country from Mr. Maduro, his government is expected to quickly halt the oil shipments. The result would be power outages, fuel shortages and government spending cuts that would cause the Cuban economy to shrink by as much as 10%, according to Omar Everleny Perez, an independent Cuban economist in Havana.

Ted Henken, a Cuba expert at Baruch College in New York, said the end of bargain-basement-priced oil for Cuba would cause a seismic shift on the island. “Cuba has limped along for the past 15 years thanks, basically, to the relationship with Venezuela,” he said.

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WNU Editor: Cuba will find a way to get by if their oil is cut-off. They have been doing without now for almost 60 years.

Cuba Accuses The U.S. Of Deploying Special Forces Closer To Venezuela

General view of opposition supporters taking part in a rally to commemorate the Day of the Youth and to protest against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government in Caracas, Venezuela February 12, 2019. REUTERS/Adriana Loureiro

Reuters: Cuba says U.S. moving special forces, preparing Venezuelan intervention

HAVANA (Reuters) - Cuba said on Thursday the United States was moving special forces closer to Venezuela as part of a covert plan to intervene in the chaotic South American country using the pretext of a humanitarian crisis.

A “Declaration of the Revolutionary Government” alleged that recent events in Venezuela amounted to an attempted coup that had so far failed.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has been trying to pressure Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to step down and hand over power to Juan Guaido, the head of Venezuela’s National Assembly.

Guaido invoked a constitutional provision to assume the presidency three weeks ago, arguing that Maduro’s re-election last year was a sham.

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More News On The Crisis In Venezuela

Cuba says US secretly moving special forces closer to Venezuela -- The Hill
Trump administration secretly moving US special forces closer to Venezuela, Cuba claims -- The Independent
US Military Aircraft Head to Caribbean Countries - Cuban Foreign Ministry -- Sputnik
Venezuela military reinforces Colombian border blockade -- France 24
Nicolás Maduro claims foes 'totally failed' to topple him as efforts falter -- The Guardian
Maduro government in desperate hunt for gold, oil buyers -- CBC
Venezuela opposition moves to seize control of oil revenue -- Al JAzeera
Venezuela opposition leader Juan Guaido tries to seize control of country's oil production -- The Independent
Venezuela opposition takes steps to seize oil revenue as Maduro issues threat -- Reuters
Venezuelan prosecutor to investigate Guaido appointments -- AP
'I won't shoot my people': Soldier reflects on Venezuela's political crisis -- CBC
Hands off ‘our hemisphere’ or Venezuela pays the price: US Senator warns Russia -- RT
Photos of Young Venezuelans Protesting in Caracas -- VICE

A Look At The Role That Cuba Has Played In The Venezuelan Drug Trade

Hugo Chavez (left) became Fidel Castro's closest ally. (Reuters: Claudia Daut)

Christopher Dickey, Daily Beast: How Cuba Helped Make Venezuela A Mafia State

The Castros claimed Cuba was never into drug smuggling, then they said it quit. But their own operations were nothing compared to the ones they helped facilitate in Venezuela.

The medals, the honors, the general’s uniform—all had been stripped away. Arnaldo Ochoa, once considered a great hero of the Cuban Revolution and its military expeditions in Africa, stood before Fidel Castro’s court in 1989 wearing a cheap plaid shirt. He looked like what he had always been, the handsome and charismatic son of Cuban peasants, a man of the people, a leader, and that may have been the real cause of his downfall. But the charges were narcotics trafficking and treason.

Ochoa’s trial was a pivotal moment in the history of Cuba and of what Washington in those days was calling “the war on drugs.” It marked the end of an era in which Fidel Castro’s dictatorship had facilitated the shipment of cocaine to the United States from the infamous cartels of Colombia, including Pablo Escobar’s operation in Medellín. And not the least of the motives attributed to the Cubans was the desire to tear at the fabric of yanqui society. These were the days of the crack cocaine epidemic shattering the peace of cities across the United States. Fueling addiction, desperation and crime while enriching the Revolution must have seemed perfectly legitimate goals to some of the Castros' cohorts, and their intelligence services did what they thought they had to do for their regime to survive on its own terms.

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WNU Editor: Cuba has done a lot of things in Venezuela .... and are probably involved even more today. It is not a surprise that Cuba's new President  .... in his first trip abroad earlier last week .... was to Venezuela .... Cuba's new leader praises Maduro in 'solidarity' visit to Venezuela (Reuters).

Why Is Venezuela Buying Foreign Oil To Be Shipped To Cuba?

Reuters: Exclusive: As Venezuelans suffer, Maduro buys foreign oil to subsidize Cuba

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Venezuela’s state-run oil firm PDVSA has bought nearly $440 million worth of foreign crude and shipped it directly to Cuba on friendly credit terms - and often at a loss, according to internal company documents reviewed by Reuters.

The shipments are the first documented instances of the OPEC nation buying crude to supply regional allies instead of selling them oil from its own vast reserves.

Venezuela made the discounted deliveries, which have not been previously reported, despite its dire need for foreign currency to bolster its collapsing economy and to import food and medicine amid widespread shortages.

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WNU Editor: Venezuelan - Cuban relations have been very tight ever since a pact was signed in 2000 by the late presidents Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro. Since that time Cuba has provided assistance ranging from medical doctors to intelligence/security services. Cuba is not doing this for free .... they want to be paid. My guess has always been that this arrangement was to be paid for by Venezuela via through oil shipments .... such as this one.

In His First Act As President Cuba's Diaz-Canel Receives Venezuelan President Maduro

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel (R) speaks to Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro at the Revolution Palace in Havana, Cuba April 21, 2018. Ernesto Mastrascusa/Pool via Reuters

Reuters: Underlining alliance, Venezuela's Maduro visits new Cuban leader

HAVANA (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro became on Saturday the first foreign leader to meet with Cuba’s Miguel Diaz-Canel since he became president of the communist-run island this week, underscoring the importance of the Venezuelan-Cuban alliance.

Diaz-Canel, 58, was sworn in on Thursday as president to succeed his mentor Raul Castro, 86, in a transition designed to continue rather than change the one-party socialist system, one of the last in the world.

Maduro flew to Havana the following day to congratulate him and map out further cooperation between the two countries that became strategic allies in 2000 with the rise to power in Venezuela of socialist leader Hugo Chavez.

“We come to renew hope, to renew dreams and ... above all, to visualize the 10 years ahead,” Maduro told Cuban state-run media shortly before meeting with Diaz-Canel in the Palace of the Revolution.

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WNU Editor: Cuba's new 'babysaur' meets Venezuela's dinosaur .... what more can I say.

Wall Street Journal: A Dozen High Level Cuban Military Officers And Thousands Of Intelligence Agents Are Now In Venezuela

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro, right, and Cuba's President Raul Castro attend an ALBA alliance summit in Caracas, March 17, 2015.REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins

WNU Editor: The Wall Street Journal article is unfortunately under a paywall .... Cuba’s Proxy War in Venezuela (Mary Anastasia O’Grady, WSJ). Summarising .... there are more than a dozen high-ranking Cuban officers in Venezuela, along with thousands of Cuban intelligence agents. Apparently their job is to keep the Venezuelan army officers under constant surveillance to prevent any mutiny. Am I surprised by this report .... no. Cuban - Venezuelan government ties have been tight for almost 20 years .... and they do need each other for their survival as predicted by this analysis from last year .... After Fidel Castro's death, Cuba and Venezuela may turn to each other for political survival (Christopher Woody, Business Insider).

I will post Mary Anastasia O’Grady column when it becomes available (without a paywall) on another news website.

Hat tip to Publius for this link.