There Will Be No USMCA Deal This Year

The Hill: Pelosi casts doubt on USMCA deal in 2019

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday cast doubt on the possibility of passing an updated North American trade deal by the end of 2019, a departure from her previous characterization of the deal as “imminent.”

“I’m not even sure if we came to an agreement today that it would be enough time to finish,” she said, referencing an end-of-year timeline many had hoped for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer met with Pelosi and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) later on Thursday, but a final deal remained out of reach.

Neal said that of five outstanding issues, they had reached agreement on roughly half of them and would continue negotiations next week.

Read more ....

Update #1: Pelosi backtracks on year-end trade deal optimism (Washington Examiner)
Update #2: Pelosi, White House Fail to Seal USMCA Deal in Crucial Meeting (Bloomberg)

WNU Editor: Everyone has come to terms with this agreement with the exception of the House Democrats. I hope I am wrong, but I sense that the House Democrats do not want to give President Trump this foreign policy "win", and may delay it until after the 2020 election. Their fous right now is on impeachment, and to delegitimize this President.

Is The Democrat Congress About To Torpedo The New NAFTA Agreement?

New York Times: Trump’s Nafta Plan Could Be Upended by Democrats’ House Takeover

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s promise to quickly pass a revamped North American Free Trade Agreement has been upended by the midterm elections, with Democrats who will soon control the House vowing to withhold their support to extract greater protections for American workers.

Administration officials remain confident they will corral the votes for the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which Mr. Trump speedily negotiated in September to claim a big win on one of his signature issues before the November elections.

While White House officials considered pushing the revised deal through the coming lame-duck session, they did not want to risk a backlash from lawmakers in both parties.

Democrats, emboldened by their midterm win and eager to outshine Mr. Trump as defenders of the American worker, are unlikely to sign off on any deal that does not include significant changes that labor leaders and newly elected progressives are demanding. That could involve reopening negotiations with Mexico, although American and Mexican negotiators have both publicly ruled out that possibility.

Read more ....

Update #1: Key Democrat Demands Changes to New North America Trade Deal (Bloomberg)
Update #2: Born-Again Free Traders? (Haley Byrd, Weekly Standard)
Update #3: Peso, Loonie Tumble After Dems Demand Changes To NAFTA 2.0 (Zero Hedge)

WNU Editor: This story is not playing well in Canada.

Canada Joins U.S. And Mexico For Trade Deal to Replace Nafta -- News Updates

Daily Mail: Trump boasts new trade deal between U.S., Canada and Mexico is 'historic transaction' as last-minute deal replaces NAFTA after a YEAR of negotiations and war of words between Trump and Justin Trudeau

* The U.S., Canada and Mexico have been negotiating the terms of a revised North America Free Trade Agreement for more than a year
* The Trump administration announced a deal had been reached late Sunday night
* The new pact is being called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement
* The agreement is a giant step toward Trump delivering on his key campaign promise to overhaul NAFTA
* Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also praised the new deal as he left an emergency Cabinet meeting late Sunday, telling reporters: 'It’s a good day for Canada'

Donald Trump sent his congratulations to Mexico and Canada on Monday morning, boasting about the 11th-hour reformulation of the Clinton-era NAFTA trade pact as the United States Mexico Canada Agreement.

Late last night, our deadline, we reached a wonderful new Trade Deal with Canada, to be added into the deal already reached with Mexico. The new name will be The United States Mexico Canada Agreement, or USMCA,' the president wrote in a pair of tweets.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: This deal is a relief to everyone. As for the content, I will be giving my feedback when I read the text of the agreement.

Canada Joins U.S. And Mexico For Trade Deal to Replace Nafta -- News Updates

Canada-US reach free trade deal with Mexico -- AP
Trump hails new US-Canada-Mexico trade pact -- AFP
Trump: Canada, Mexico trade pact 'great deal' for all sides -- Reuters
Trump heralds 'wonderful new trade deal' to replace Nafta after Canada talks -- The Guardian
US and Canada reach new trade deal to replace Nafta -- BBC
US, Canada reach trilateral trade pact with Mexico to replace NAFTA -- DW
U.S. reaches trade deal with Canada and Mexico, providing Trump a crucial win -- Politico
US, Mexico, Canada agree on new trade pact to replace NAFTA -- Al Jazeera
The Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar are ripping higher after the new NAFTA deal -- Business Insider
U.S., Canada and Mexico just reached a sweeping new NAFTA deal. Here’s what’s in it. -- Washington Post

Canadian Press Is Reporting That A Deal Has Been Reached On NAFTA

CBC: Canada, U.S. have reached a NAFTA deal, senior Canadian source says

After more than a year of fractious negotiations, a deal has been reached

After more than a year of fractious negotiations, Canada and the U.S. have reached an agreement on key sections of a new NAFTA, a senior source told CBC News.

Read more ....

More News On Reports That A Deal Has Been Reached On NAFTA

The Latest: Trudeau meeting with Cabinet over trade -- AP
Canada reaches 11th-hour NAFTA deal with U.S., Mexico: sources -- CTV
Canada agrees to join trade accord with U.S. and Mexico, sending new NAFTA deal to Congress -- Washington Post
Canada, U.S. reach framework deal on NAFTA: source -- Reuters
Trudeau calls meeting as Canada, US near free trade deal -- AP
As deadline looms, US and Canada close to NAFTA deal -- CNN
'They're in the final strokes': Canada and U.S. make key concessions as deadline looms, sources say -- Financial Post
U.S., Canada said to be close to Nafta deal ahead of midnight deadline -- Market Watch
Trump on cusp of closing biggest trade deal, in late-night NAFTA marathon -- Politico

A U.S. - Canada NAFTA Agreement Today?

The Hill: US and Canada working furiously to come to NAFTA agreement

The U.S. and Canada are working furiously to reach an agreement by Sunday, a self-imposed deadline to complete an updated North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

President Trump was prepared to give up on the weekend deadline with Canada because the United States and its largest trading partner still had major issues left to resolve.

Instead, the White House and Mexico on Friday held off on releasing the text of a Mexico-only deal as negotiations ramped up between the U.S. and Canada in a effort to meet the deadline.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: It is the Canadian side that is pushing the news story that a NAFTA agreement may be reached today. I do not share this optimism, but the deadline is today, and they surprise us by announcing an agreement later tonight (or first thing tomorrow morning).

More News On Reports That Canada And the U.S. May Reach A NAFTA Agreement Today

Canada and U.S. close to reaching NAFTA deal this weekend, but key sticking points remain -- National Post/Bloomberg
Canada, U.S. make progress in bid to save NAFTA, no deal yet: sources -- Reuters
US, Canada likely to conclude NAFTA talks this weekend: report -- FOX News
Canada's race against time with US to reach NAFTA deal -- AFP
The NAFTA deadline is Sunday. What happens if there’s no deal? -- VOX

A U.S. - Canada NAFTA Deal In The Next 48 Hours?

Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo, pictured in Washington in August 2018, is leading his country's efforts in North American trade talks (AFP Photo/NICHOLAS KAMM)

AFP: Mexico says US, Canada could reach new NAFTA deal in 48 hours

Mexico City (AFP) - The United States and Canada have told Mexico they could reach a compromise within 48 hours on keeping the updated North American Free Trade Agreement a three-country deal, the Mexican economy minister said Friday.

Speaking as he presented the Mexican Senate with the current US-Mexican agreement to update NAFTA -- which does not include Canada, the third member of the original deal -- Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said Washington and Ottawa were making a "very serious," last-ditch attempt to bridge their differences.

"For the first time, we're seeing a real effort by both sides," he said.

"In the next 48 hours, we will know if we are going with a trilateral agreement."

Read more ....

WNU Editor: I personally hope that a three-country deal is made. But people I trust (on the Canadian side) are telling me that the Canadians are not going to budge. The deadline is this Monday, and I do not see how how this can be done. As for the U.S. - Mexico deal, both sides want it to happen, and it will be presented to Congress this Monday .... with Canada or not.

U.S. - Canada Relations Hit 'Rock Bottom' Over NAFTA

BBC: Nafta: Donald Trump says US 'not getting along' with Canada

Donald Trump has said he turned down a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, putting a damper on high hopes for trade renegotiations.

Mr Trump's comments were made as Nafta talks continue to drag on.

"I must be honest with you, we're not getting along at all with their negotiators," he said at a United Nations news conference in New York.

He took aim at the country's dairy tariffs and reiterated his threat to tax Canada's auto industry.

"We don't like their representative very much," he said, which some took to mean Canadian foreign minister Chrystia Freeland, who has been leading the charge to have a new deal in place.

Read more ....

Update #1: Trudeau rebuffs Trump's trade talks criticism -- AFP
Update #2: US Treasury Secretary confident Congress would pass NAFTA without Canada -- AFP

WNU Editor: I concur .... Don't expect a new NAFTA deal this week (Katie Lobosco, CNN)

U.S. And Mexico Moving To Sign A New NAFTA Deal Without Canada

AFP: US, Mexico ready to sign new NAFTA without Canada: US official

The United States and Mexico could move ahead without Canada in a new version of the North American Free Trade Agreement, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said Tuesday, according to media reports.

Momentum appeared to have stalled last week in efforts to bridge differences between Washington and Ottawa in negotiations to rewrite NAFTA, which began last year.

Washington and Mexico City last month announced agreement on a new trade pact, but a separate track of intensive talks with Canada have so far failed to produce results.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Canada miscalculated the impact that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador would have on the NAFTA negotiations after he had won the Mexican Presidential election. President-elect Obrador wanted a quick deal so that he could focus on Mexico's domestic issues instead of arguing with President Trump .... Canada thought the opposite, that he would continue the strategy of the previous Mexican government to work with Canada in negotiating with the U.S.. Unfortunately for Canada .... the Mexicans decided to cut a quick deal with President Trump, thereby putting Canada in the poor negotiating position that they find themselves in today. The hope now in Ottawa is that the U.S. Congress will block this U.S. - Mexico bilateral trade agreement, and tell the White House to negotiate with both Mexico and Canada together. But I do not see this happening. Congress is going to green-light this U.S. - Mexico agreement, and Canada will either need to compromise or walk away. My sources tell me that Canada is going to walk away, and the Liberal government under Prime Minister Trudeau will use this failure to strike a deal with President Trump as an issue in next year's federal election. I think this is a mistake. The White House will start to impose tariffs, and in conjunction with other measures it will seriously damage investor confidence in the Canadian economy and Canadian exports. And going to the electorate saying that not having a deal is better than having a bad deal is not going to resonate to those who are being hurt. Bottom line .... the U.S. economy will have a hit, but in Canada the impact will be far more serous and longer lasting.

Update: This analysis is spot on .... How Trump split Mexico and Canada in NAFTA talks (Dave Graham, Reuters).

Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau Under Growing Pressure To Get NAFTA Deal Done

Reuters: Canada's Trudeau under growing pressure to get NAFTA deal done

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Business and political leaders are increasing the pressure on Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to agree on a deal to renew NAFTA and drop his insistence that no deal is better than a bad deal.

Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland will hold fresh talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Washington on Wednesday as a U.S.-imposed deadline of Oct. 1 looms.

The two sides are far apart in some areas and Trudeau says his Liberal government will walk away if necessary.

Signs are growing that hitherto solid domestic support for Ottawa’s stance is fraying amid fears of the potential economic damage. The United States takes 75 percent of Canada’s goods exports and President Donald Trump is threatening to impose tariffs on autos.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Mexico made the decision that it was in their interest to sign a deal with the U.S.. They made sure that their critical industries were protected (i.e. agriculture), and they compromised on the rest. The end result .... both the U.S. and Mexico walked away feeling that they made an acceptable deal. U.S. - Canada negotiations are occurring in a climate where the Canadian side does not believe that it is in their interest to sign a deal, and they feel confident that by the end of the month the U.S. will compromise "big-time" to make sure that the U.S. - Mexico agreement does not become nullified because of a September 30 Congressional-legislative deadline. I think this strategy is a terrible mistake, and I have bluntly told my Canadian Liberal friends that President Trump will use the powers that he has in his office to not only inflict maximum pressure on Canada to get an agreement, but he will also make sure that the U.S. - Mexico agreement is preserved. But the impression that I am getting is that the Trudeau Liberals do not care. To them this is a issue that will be a winner for them politically .... especially when they go to the polls next year on a platform that is anti-Trump. Again .... I think this strategy is a terrible mistake.

President Trump: No Political Necessity To Keep Canada In The New NAFTA Deal

There is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal. If we don’t make a fair deal for the U.S. after decades of abuse, Canada will be out. Congress should not interfere w/ these negotiations or I will simply terminate NAFTA entirely & we will be far better off...

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 1, 2018

I love Canada, but they’ve taken advantage of our Country for many years!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 1, 2018

Reuters: Trump says Canada not needed in NAFTA deal, warns Congress not to interfere

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday there was no need to keep Canada in the North American Free Trade Agreement and warned Congress not to meddle with the trade negotiations or he would terminate the trilateral trade pact altogether.

“There is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal. If we don’t make a fair deal for the U.S. after decades of abuse, Canada will be out,” Trump said on Twitter.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: From what I am reading .... both sides are far apart. There has been no willingness to compromise from both sides, and .... more importantly in my opinion .... both sides do not feel any political pressure to compromise. On the U.S. side .... the economy is booming so that the perception is that even if tariffs are imposed on Canada, they will not hurt the U.S. economy. On the Canadian side, many of my Liberal government contacts want this to be used a wedge issue in next year's federal election, and while it will hurt the Canadian economy, the Trump administration will be blamed for it. Bottom line .... I am now starting to wonder if this is all going to blow-up.

More News On President Trump's Remarks That There Is No Political Necessity To Keep Canada In The New NAFTA Deal

Trump Slams Canada Over NAFTA Talks: We Shouldn't Have to Buy Our Friends -- Newsweek
Trump again threatens to leave Canada out of new NAFTA deal -- CNN
Trump says no need to keep Canada in NAFTA -- Nikkei Asian Review
Trump: Canada 'will be out' of trade deal unless it's 'fair' -- AP
Trump gives Canada 90 days to accept new NAFTA terms -- France 24
Trump blasts trade talks with Canada: We shouldn't have to buy our friends -- The Hill
Trump Slams Canada’s ‘Decades of Abuse’ After Nafta Talks Stall -- Bloomberg
The Falling Apart Of The Deal (NAFTA) -- Phil Levy, Forbes

U.S. And Mexico Reach An Agreement On NAFTA. Canada Left Out (For Now)

Reuters: U.S., Mexico reach NAFTA deal, turn up pressure on Canada

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States and Mexico agreed on Monday to overhaul the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), putting pressure on Canada to agree to new terms on auto trade and dispute settlement rules to remain part of the three-nation pact.

Auto stocks soared and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rallied to record highs on the expectation that Canada would sign onto the deal and ease the economic uncertainty caused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to ditch the 1994 accord.

Details of gains and concessions in the deal were only starting to emerge on Monday. Trump threatened he still could put tariffs on Canadian-made cars if Canada did not join its neighbors and warned he expected concessions on Canada’s dairy protections.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Both Mexico and the U.S. got what they wanted. Mexico's agricultural sector can still export goods to the U.S. duty free .... a big win for Mexico that now protects millions of jobs, and the U.S. got what it wants, lessening the wage advantage that Mexico has on goods being manufacture in Mexico destined to U.S. markets, and stopping other countries from using Mexico as a transit point to ship goods to the U.S.. As for Canada .... in my opinion Canada has been betrayed by Mexico after they had promised that they would not come to an agreement with the U.S. without Ottawa's participation.

Update: Sadly (from a Canadian perspective), this is correct .... Justin from Canada Painted His Country Into a Lose/Lose Trade Corner – More Details of U.S-Mexico Deal… (The Last Refuge). More details on the U.S. - Mexico agreement are here .... 'A big day for trade': U.S., Mexico reach deal to replace NAFTA (Financial Post).

More News On The U.S. And Mexico Reaching An Agreement On NAFTA

US and Mexico tentatively set to replace NAFTA with new deal -- AP
US, Mexico finalize trade pact; Canada to rejoin talks Tuesday -- AFP
Trump announces agreement with Mexico on NAFTA overhaul -- The Hill
Trump announces US-Mexico trade deal, setting stage for Nafta overhaul -- The Guardian
Donald Trump announces trade deal with Mexico, says he will ditch Nafta name -- SCMP/Bloomberg
US and Mexico agree on NAFTA revamp, Canada 'encouraged' -- DW
Trump announces 'incredible' trade deal with Mexico -- BBC
Donald Trump terminating NAFTA trade deal, negotiating with Canada -- ABC News Online
US, Mexico reach NAFTA deal as attention turns to Canada -- Al Jazeera

U.S. And Mexico Said Poised To Reach NAFTA Deal Soon As Monday

Bloomberg: U.S., Mexico Said Poised to Reach Nafta Deal Soon as Monday

The U.S. and Mexico are poised to resolve their bilateral Nafta differences as soon as Monday, creating an opening for Canada to rejoin talks covering $1.2 trillion in annual trade.

Significant breakthroughs between Mexico and the U.S. came during the past several days on the contentious issues of automobiles and energy, according to three people familiar with the process who asked not to be named discussing private talks.

Along with Canada, they’ve been negotiating for a year to overhaul the 24-year-old accord at the insistence of Donald Trump. The U.S. president says the deal has led to hundreds of thousands of lost American jobs, and he promised to either change it to be more favorable to the U.S., or withdraw.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Because of the incoming new Mexican government .... this is the week that both sides must come to an agreement. As for Canada .... is it me or do I feel like a third wheel that no one really cares about? .... Canada watches nervously as US, Mexico work out NAFTA deal (Washington Examiner).

Reports: U.S. - Mexico Reach Deal On NAFTA

Virginia-Pilot/Los Angeles Times: Trump administration nearing deal with Mexico on revised NAFTA — but issues with Canada remain

The Trump administration is close to striking a deal with Mexico on a revamped North American Free Trade Agreement, analysts said, but thorny issues are yet to be resolved with Canada, the third party in the trilateral pact.

Reaching an agreement with Mexico would mark a breakthrough for the administration after a year of roller-coaster talks and tension with its longtime North American trading partners. President Trump has frequently threatened to withdraw from NAFTA, linked the renegotiations to his call for a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border and slapped tariffs on Mexican and Canadian steel to apply pressure to make concessions.

But both Mexico and the U.S. have strong incentives to push through a deal quickly. Mexico wants to lock in an agreement before its new leftist president takes office, and the White House is keen on achieving a win on trade ahead of the midterm elections.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Canada will need to sign off on this U.S. - Mexican agreement, but if what I am reading in Canada is true, there is no Canadian interest to compromise and/or accomodate this U.S. - Mexican agreement to make it happen within the NAFTA framework. And watching the Canadian national news networks this evening has been surreal. The focus on tonight's telecast (both CTV and CBC) was on President Trump's remarks that there has been no movement with Canada on NAFATA (see above video), while at the same time ignoring reports that the U.S. and Mexico may have reached an agreement. I suspect that more details will emerge in the coming days, but Canada is now in the position of being the spoiler of this U.S. - Mexican agreement, and if I was a betting man I would put my money on Canada doing just that.

A U.S. - Mexico NAFTA Deal?

Politico: Mexico, U.S. may be heading toward NAFTA deal amid Trump’s global trade war

The apparent turnaround after months of stalemate is a surprise outcome of discussions reaching their year anniversary on Thursday.

President Donald Trump could be poised to make a deal with Mexico on NAFTA even as he engages in a trade war with the rest of the world.

Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo arrived in Washington on Wednesday — as he has every week for the past month — to hammer out some of the most contentious issues on NAFTA. U.S. and Mexican officials now say they could be on the verge of announcing a preliminary agreement on everything from complicated automotive rules to environmental regulations by the end of August.

Read more ....

Update: Top U.S. trade official hopes for NAFTA 'breakthrough' in days (Reuters).

WNU Editor: I beleive there is a very good chance of a U.S. - Mexico NAFTA deal in the coming weeks. As to a U.S. - Canada deal .... not so much. The U.S. and Canada are still far apart on many key issues.

U.S. Closing In On NAFTA Agreement With Mexico. Canada Has Been Shut-Out

President Donald Trump is greeted by Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during the official welcoming ceremony at the G7 Summit in the Charlevoix town of La Malbaie, Quebec, Canada, June 8, 2018. (Christinne Muschi/Reuters)

National Post: Canada rejected in bid to be part of high-level NAFTA talks between Mexico and U.S.: sources

A source said the U.S. side, fuelled in part by Lighthizer’s dislike of Freeland, has decided to not even let Canada back into the process until it makes a substantive concession.

WASHINGTON, D.C. — American officials have taken the “highly unusual” step of rejecting Canada’s bid to take part in senior-level NAFTA talks between the U.S. and Mexico later this week, sources familiar with the trade negotiations said Monday.

One person said attempts by Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland to get a seat at the table in Washington Thursday were either ignored, or spurned outright by the office of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

Another source said the request to be at the meeting was made in a low-key fashion “so as not to spark a diplomatic incident” and was followed by “a retreat to diplomatic silence.”

Lighthizer is scheduled to meet Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo of Mexico after similar bilateral meetings between the officials last week made significant progress, analysts say.

Canada’s apparent sidelining follows Lighthizer’s recent comments that he hoped to strike a separate deal with Mexico, then use that as pressure to win compromises from Canada.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: There are many reasons why I do not understand the Canadian NAFTA position (and I live in Canada making a living in understanding these economic trends). But demanding to retain their NAFTA access to the U.S. market while simultaneously retaining their ability to broker imported Chinese goods while the U.S. is in the middle of a trade war with China does not make sense to me. Nor does it make sense that Canada's manufacturing base be sacrificed to accommodate Chinese demands that their goods can enter Canada at the rate they are entering now. But such is the position that Canada is taking, and the media/political establishment/and business community is all in favor of it. My prediction .... Canada is going to be burned bad if this continues. As for Mexico .... they want a deal now, and they are probably going to get it.

There Are No NAFTA Talks Occuring. Prime Minister Trudeau Will Not Talk To President Trump Until The NATO Summit

There was a slightly awkward moment at a photo-op today with @cafreeland and Canada's NAFTA council. @CBCKatie provides some context on the blunder. #pnpcbc #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/vAKWEI5rgc

— Power & Politics (@PnPCBC) June 22, 2018

WNU Editor: The Canadian government has been saying for the past few weeks that NAFTA talks have been ongoing with the U.S. administration. But as the above report from the CBC clearly indicates, there has been none ....

.... “We don’t have any active negotiations. I haven’t talked to them in a little while,” Canada’s chief negotiator Steve Verheul said.

When asked when the last time they spoke, Verheul expanded.

“Two or three weeks. Um, I’ll have the odd conversation, but no real engagement, no real negotiation session,” Verheul explained.

Foreign affairs minister Chrystia Freeland shut down the casual banter quickly nothing the cameras in the room.

Brian Lilley's analysis on why are U.S. - Canadian relations are so frosty confirms what I have learned from my own sources. For Canadians and for Americans who are interested in their partnership with Canada, his commentary is here .... Canadian workers will pay for Trudeau-Trump trade spat (Brian Lilly).

On a side note, and another indication that the U.S. and Canadian economies are headed in opposite direction. Canada lost 31,000 full time jobs in May (for an economy 1/10th the size of the U.S.), and the U.S. gained 223,000 full time jobs during the same period.

Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau Says That A NAFTA Deal Is Near

Reuters: NAFTA nations 'moving forward in significant way': Canada's Trudeau

OTTAWA (Reuters) - The United States, Mexico and Canada are “moving forward in a significant way” at talks to modernize the NAFTA trade pact, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Thursday.

Trudeau’s remarks to reporters in Quebec City were the latest in a series of upbeat comments by officials in the three countries about the chances of striking some kind of deal soon on the North American Free Trade Agreement.

“I believe we’re in a moment where we’re moving forward in a significant way. Hopefully there will be some good news coming,” Trudeau said.

“We know these negotiations, there are good moments and there are slower moments. But right now we’re having a very productive moment of engaging with the United States and Mexico,” he added.

Mexican officials say that if enough progress is made, the leaders of the three nations could make an announcement at a regional summit in Peru at the end of next week.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: Canadian PM Trudeau said the same thing a few weeks ago. We shall know by next week if a breakthrough has occurred.

More News On Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau's Remarks That A NAFTA Deal Is Near

Trudeau sees high chance of NAFTA deal with US, Mexico -- AFP
Trudeau says 'significant' progress being made on NAFTA -- CTV News
Trudeau sees 'high chance' of reaching 'win-win-win' NAFTA deal -- The Hill
Trudeau Sees 'Significant' Progress in Nafta Talks -- Bloomberg
Eighth round of NAFTA talks on hold as top ministers meet in Washington -- The Globe and Mail

Is NAFTA Doomed?

Washington Examiner: Goldman Sachs: Steel tariffs a likely prelude to NAFTA exit

Investment firm Goldman Sachs said Friday that President Trump's decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports likely signals that the administration will eventually pull the U.S. out of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Trump announced tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum imports on Thursday, and justified them as a way to protect U.S. national security.

"Unlike routine antidumping and countervailing duty cases or less common safeguard cases, the Section 232 authority the President will apparently use is rarely used and more controversial," wrote Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, according to CNBC. "There is a good chance that this could eventually lead the President to announce he intends to withdraw from NAFTA, but such an announcement does not appear likely in the near term."

Read more ....

WNU Editor: A few weeks ago I gave a presentation to some businessmen outlining my views on the current international situation and my take on economic trends. On the issue of  NAFTA I explained to them that I initially thought that an agreement would be found within a year or two, but with Canada now joining the TPP it would mean the end of NAFTA as we know. Reason .... with the U.S. no longer interested in TPP these Asian countries would then be able to use Canada as an entry point to export their products to the U.S., while side-stepping their tariffs and custom duties. I call this the NAFTA loop-hole. It is a loophole that has been around since Day One,  and it is a loophole that I have explained more than once over the years to Canadian, Chinese and South Korean businessmen. It is also a loophole that President Trump and his trade negotiators are well aware .... and this is one of the reasons why they wanted to renegotiate this entire agreement in the first place. As to why am I talking about this now? I keep this type of intel/news away from WNU .... this is a blog about wars and conflicts .... not international trade.  But I am making an exception in this case because one of the attendees who attended my presentation and who is also an old friend sent me this link .... from "The Last Refuge" of all places .... that summarized what I had said a few weeks ago. It is an excellent and easy to understand article that summarizes some of the points that I made .... and yes .... for those who live in Mexico/Canada/and the U.S. .... the end of NAFTA will impact all of us. The link is here .....  Understanding Why NAFTA Exit is a Forgone Conclusion… (Last Refuge).

Would A Collapse Of NAFTA Push Mexico Over The Edge

Doug Saunders, Globe and Mail: A NAFTA collapse could push Mexico over the edge

There are two foreign men whose faces you see constantly on the streets of Mexico's capital these days – on magazine covers, on posters and billboards, caricatured on T-shirts and, in the case of one of them, hung as pinatas.

That one is Donald Trump. He has achieved a folkloric notoriety in Mexico unprecedented among U.S. presidents, after coming to power by demonizing the entire Mexican people as rapists and traffickers and by threatening to savage Mexico's fragile economy by shutting down NAFTA and building a border wall. To be associated with Mr. Trump, as Mexico's centre-left President Enrique Pena Nieto made the mistake of doing in 2016 (when he invited the then-candidate to visit Mexico), is to be scarred.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: We are still far-away from a NAFTA collapse, but the above author's analysis on the rise of far-left populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and the very real possibility of him becoming the next President of Mexico, coupled by the popularity of Che Guevara (at least that is what my Mexican friends are saying), is spot on. If I was to make a prediction .... NAFTA is not going to collapse any time soon, but the election of someone like Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador .... now that is someone who will push for change that may end up with NAFTA collapsing, not NAFTA collapsing and then having him and his party win the election. Either way .... 2018 is going to be an interesting year on the North American continent.

Mexico Ready To Quit NAFTA

AFP: Mexico ready to quit NAFTA if US talks fail

Mexico City (AFP) - Mexico drew red lines on Tuesday ahead of negotiations with US President Donald Trump's administration, warning it could quit the talks and a major trade pact if the discussions hit a wall.

During the US election campaign, Trump vowed to make Mexico pay for a massive border wall and threatened to finance it by tapping into the $25 billion in remittances that Mexican migrants sent back home last year.

"There are very clear red lines that must be drawn from the start," Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo told the Televisa network as he prepares to meet with US officials in Washington on Wednesday and Thursday.

Read more ....

Update #1: Officials: Mexico Could Leave NAFTA If Talks Unsatisfactory (AP)
Update #2: Would Mexico really pull out of NAFTA? (Weston Williams, CSM)

WNU Editor: In an ominous sign for Mexico, Canada is telling Mexico that they may be on their own .... Canada to Mexico on NAFTA: you might be on your own (Reuters).