U.S. Lacks Enough Troops To Support 'Low-Risk' Afghan Option

U.S. Army 1st Lt. Kevin Jewell, right, talks to his sergeants to determine the best route during a patrol near Combat Outpost Herrera, Paktiya province, Afghanistan, Oct. 13, 2009. Jewell is assigned to Apache Troop, 1st Squadron, 40th Cavalry Regiment. U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Andrew Smith

From McClatchy News:

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. military can send only about 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan in the next three months without putting excessive strains on the Army and Marine Corps, but the top Afghanistan commander has said he needs more than twice that number to have the best chance of success, military and administration officials told McClatchy.

Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal has said that even if it sent 30,000 additional troops, the U.S. would risk failure in Afghanistan under the current strategy. His resourcing plan offers President Barack Obama three options based on the estimated risk, said two U.S. military officials, who requested anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak publicly and because the proposal remains classified.

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My Comment: This analysis puts a cold shower on what is possible in Afghanistan. In short .... General McChrystal cannot get his 80,000 extra troops even if President Obama wanted to send them.

The Great U.S. Airlift Over Afghanistan

Army UH-60 Blackhawk helicopters fly over a C-130 Hercules at Bagram Air Base, Afghanistan, as it prepares for a mission Sept. 24. (U.S. Air Force photo / Staff Sgt. Joshua T. Jasper)

From Politics Daily:

OVER FARAH PROVINCE, Western Afghanistan -- At an unseen point in the dark, Lt. Col. Wil Baulkmon slams down the flaps and pitches up the nose of his lumbering C-130 airlift plane. On the sharply canted cargo bay floor behind him, six tons of cargo strains against its web straps toward the open ramp and the roaring emptiness outside. "Come a little to the right ... a bit more," the navigator says crisply on the intercom. "OK, on course and looking good.''

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My Comment: A detailed story on U.S. air resupply in Afghanistan. Put it this way .... if it was not for these guys (and gals), the war in Afghanistan will be far more difficult and definitely more bloodier.

Interesting Afghan Statistics

From Michael Yon:

One must always be careful with statistics, and especially so when dealing with insurgencies. The numbers tend to lag behind the true current situation. For instance, in July of 2007, when John Burns and I both were telling millions of Americans that "the Surge" was working, our casualties actually were at nearly the highest during the entire war. And so, using statistics, someone could have ripped us apart or accused us of carrying the water for the President. But in fact, though attacks were very high, it was obvious that we were turning the tables in Iraq and the situation was dramatically improving. Likewise, when I reported from Afghanistan during 2006, saying explicitly, in plain language, that we were losing, some people used statistics to discredit those reports. In this type of warfare, the statistics can be extremely misleading. Yet I do pay attention to the statistics. The difficulty comes in applying proper context.

Please see this interesting report.

Afghanistan War News Updates -- January 11, 2009

In this handout photo provided by the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), Vice President-elect Joe Biden, right, meets with U.S. Gen. David McKiernan, head of the NATO-led ISAF in Afghanistan, after arriving at the ISAF headquarters in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Saturday, Jan. 10, 2009. Biden arrived in Afghanistan on Saturday for talks with the country's leaders, as surging Taliban violence claimed the lives of more American troops. (AP Photo/ISAF, HO)

US VP-Elect Biden Promises Help In Afghan Visit -- Yahoo News/AP

KABUL, Afghanistan – Vice President-elect Joe Biden pledged long-term American support for Afghanistan during a visit Saturday, and the commander of NATO-led forces told him that thousands of new American troops expected this year will need more support against surging Taliban violence.

President-elect Barack Obama has promised to end the war in Iraq and refocus American military efforts on Afghanistan. Biden's visit is a sign that Obama plans to make the region an immediate priority.

In a meeting with President Hamid Karzai, Biden "talked about ... the fight against terrorism, American troop increases as well as equipping and supplying of the Afghan forces," a statement from Karzai's office said, without providing any details.

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More News On Afghanistan

Biden, Afghan president discuss "war on terror" -- Yahoo News/AFP
Biden Visits Afghanistan, Meets Karzai, US Officials -- Washington Post
Biden in Afghanistan for Talks -- Associated Press
Biden in Afghanistan Ahead of US Troop Surge -- Voice Of America
Biden Arrives in Afghanistan to Discuss the War -- New York Times
Biden and Karzai in Kabul meeting -- BBC
US will Grab Power from British in Afghanistan -- The Times
Behind the lines with the Taliban -- L.A. Times
Diggers kill Taliban leader -- The Australian
Australian military denies timetable set for Afghan withdrawal -- AFP
Suicide bomber targets police official in southern Afghan produce shop, kills six -- Taipei Times
Bomb Kills 3 U.S. Soldiers in Afghanistan -- Washington Post
Decatur soldier dies in attack in Afghanistan -- MSNBC
Ottawa soldier killed in Afghanistan brought home -- Ottawa Citizen
Report: Dutch may stay in Afghanistan past 2010 -- International Herald Tribune
Coalition Targets Bomb Networks in Afghanistan -- AFPS
Predator Attack Kills al-Qaeda Leaders -- The Times
Afghan Media Gain Insight Into Air Force Mission -- AFPS
Millions face starvation in Afghanistan -- Indymedia
Increasing militancy in Pak a cause of worry: US Intelligence chief -- Online International News
US military deaths in Afghanistan region at 561 -- Yahoo News/AP

Worrisome Military Trends Of The Taliban in Afghanistan

Pfc. Joel D. Dulashanti, a sniper with 4th Squadron, 73rd Cavalry Regiment, jots down notes as a spotter for another sniper during their training on the new XM110 Semi-automatic Sniper System held here at Forward Operating Base Salerno, Afghanistan. The SASS will be an addition to the arsenal of weapons the Soldiers of Task Force Fury have at their disposal, such as the older style M24 Sniper Weapon System, seen here in the foreground.

Growing Taliban Use Of Marksmen Worries
U.S. Military -- McClatchy Newspapers

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan — Taliban fighters increasingly are deploying precision marksmen to fire on U.S. troops at greater distances throughout opium-producing southern Afghanistan, according to the top two commanders for the southern region.

The increased use of marksmen is the latest Taliban shift to asymmetrical warfare and away from confronting U.S. troops in conventional fights, the commanders told McClatchy.

Instead of gathering in company-sized units to take on foreign troops, Taliban forces also are resorting increasingly to explosives and bombings, attacks that require fewer people and pose less risk to themselves, the commanders said. Explosives attacks rose by 33 percent last year, as did deaths of coalition troops, according to the International Security Assistance Force, which leads the coalition forces stationed here.

"They are reverting to tactics that tell us they are suffering heavy losses," said U.S. Brig. Gen. John Nicholson, the deputy commander for the southern regional command. "They are trying to minimize their exposure."

The expanded use of precision marksmen comes as the fighting shifts from eastern Afghanistan to the south, where the Taliban are trying to protect opium production, which is reputed to be their economic base. The number of coalition troops killed in southern Afghanistan has increased sharply in the past two months.

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My Comment: With the Taliban slowly getting their act together, and the Afghan Government slowly disintegrating, the sophistication and development of their military wing will alter the balance of power in much of the country.

A sniper corp will be developed, in addition to the crews that are responsible for placing roadside IEDs. All of these developments do note bode well for NATO and U.S. soldiers in the country.

How the Taliban Hopes To Choke U.S. Afghanistan Mission

A man looks at Afghanistan-bound vehicles gutted by alleged militants on the outskirts of Peshawar, Pakistan on Monday, Dec. 8, 2008. Mohammad Iqbal / AP

From Time Magazine:

Perhaps the Taliban are observing the old military axiom that amateurs study tactics, while professionals study logistics. In a pair of attacks over the weekend in northwest Pakistan, militants destroyed more than 150 Humvees and other vehicles bound for U.S. troops and allies fighting in Afghanistan — the third attack on NATO supply lines inside a month. Those attacks have highlighted an ongoing vulnerability along the overland routes through mountain passes along the Afghanistan-Pakistan frontier that are used to transport more than 75% of the supplies sent by the U.S. to its 32,000 troops in Afghanistan. So, as President-elect Barack Obama prepares to send more troops to join the fight in Afghanistan, Pentagon planners are scrambling to figure out how to keep those already there — and the anticipated reinforcements — supplied with food, fuel, bullets and everything else a modern army needs.

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More News On The War In Afghanistan

NATO’s Supply Line Through Peshawar Under Siege -- Weekly Standard
US calls attacks on Pakistan supply lines 'insignificant' -- AFP
NATO in talks for new routes to keep troop supply lines open -- Newspost Online
NATO says no Afghan winter lull in fight with Taliban -- Reuters
NATO kills Taliban commander in targeted operation -- Yahoo News/AP
Report: Taliban's Influence Again Spreading Fast -- Washington Times
Greater Role for Marines in Afghanistan -- Associated Press
ANALYSIS-Afghan troop boost will differ from Iraq surge -- Reuters
Warlords show determination in Afghanistan -- Albuquerquee Express
McCain warns on Afghanistan -- iStockAnalyst

U.S. Conducting A Complete Review Of All Afghanistan Operations

A U.S. Air Force A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft moves into position to refuel from a KC-135 Stratotanker aircraft while on a mission over Afghanistan on May 29, 2008. The Stratotanker is assigned to the Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron, 376th Air Expeditionary Wing. DoD photo by Master Sgt. Andy Dunaway, U.S. Air Force. (Released)

Bush Administration Reviews Its Afghanistan Policy, Exposing Points of Contention -- New York Times

WASHINGTON — Four months before President Bush leaves office, his top civilian and military aides are conducting four major new reviews of the war strategy and overall mission in Afghanistan, which have exposed internal fissures over American troop levels, how billions of aid dollars are spent, and how to cope with a deteriorating security situation in neighboring Pakistan.

The most ambitious of the assessments, run by the White House, begins in earnest this week with a series of high-level meetings, administration officials said. Officials have been directed to produce detailed recommendations within about two weeks for Mr. Bush’s most senior advisers on a broad range of security, counterterrorism, political and development issues. Many of the dozen aides interviewed for this article spoke on condition of anonymity because the reviews are continuing.

Some of the issues being studied, including proposed increases in American troop levels in Afghanistan, have set off internal debate and could have far-reaching consequences for the next administration.

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My Comment: General Petraeus and his staff must be having an influence.