Two Days Of Pakistan - Afghanistan Talks End In Failure

Pakistani Foreign Secretary Tehmina Janjua (L) and Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Hekmat Khalil Karzai lead their respective delegations in two-day bilateral talks, in Islamabad, Pakistan, Feb. 09, 2018. (Courtesy - Pakistan Foreign Ministry)

VOA: No Progress Reported in Pakistan-Afghanistan Talks

ISLAMABAD — Afghanistan’s two-day dialogue with neighboring Pakistan ended Saturday without progress on issues dividing the two countries and fueling bilateral tensions, officials said.

Islamabad hosted the meeting of what is named the Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity, or APAPPS. The inaugural round of the Pakistan-initiated dialogue was held in Kabul on February 3.

Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Faisal said the two sides held “good” discussions with “some agreements” but said “further work [was] required”. He did not elaborate.

He said Pakistani Foreign Secretary Tehmina Janjua and Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Hekmat Khalil Karzai led their respective delegations comprising senior civilian and military officials.

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WNU Editor: Seriously. No one really expected a breakthrough in these talks.

Growing Anger In Kabul Over The Never-Ending War

Reuters: Protest in Kabul as Afghan officials press Pakistan over attacks

KABUL (Reuters) - Afghan demonstrators protested outside the Pakistani embassy in Kabul on Thursday as senior Afghan officials said they had handed over evidence connecting insurgents based in Pakistan with a recent spate of attacks that killed more than 100 people.

The protest, in which dozens of people burnt flags and chanted, “Death to Pakistan”, was not large, but it came during a period of heightened tension in the Afghan capital following two major attacks in the past two weeks.

On Thursday, Interior Minister Wais Barmak and Masooom Stanekzai, head of the NDS intelligence service, returned from a visit to Islamabad, where they had pressed Pakistani authorities to move against Taliban leaders based in the country.

“We provided Pakistan with documents about Taliban operating centres inside Pakistan and we expect Pakistan to act against them,” Barmak told a news conference in Kabul.

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WNU Editor: For as long as I can remember Afghanistan has been at war. And while there is a lot of justifiable debate in the U.S. and elsewhere on why are we there, the real debate should be among the Afghans themselves, and why have they tolerated this state of perpetual war for as long as they have.

More News On The Growing Frustration In Afghanistan Over The Never-Ending War

Protests erupt in Kabul over recent attacks, amid allegations of Pakistani involvement -- Washington Post
Protest Held In Kabul Amid Tense Afghan-Pakistani Ties -- Radio Free Europe
Afghanistan says it has proof attackers trained in Pakistan -- Stars and Stripes
Violence in Kabul is so extreme, residents are carrying 'in case I die' notes -- USA TODAY
A Fresh Wave of Terrorist Attacks Has Rocked Afghanistan. Here's What to Know -- TIME
Beyond Pakistan, Afghanistan's Most Serious Problem Is Governance -- The Diplomat
Kabul Protests Against Pakistani Hand in Recent Terrorist Attacks (PHOTOS) -- Sputnik International

Afghan President Says The Taliban Insurgency Would Collapse Within A Month If Pakistan Did Not Provide Support

Afghanistan's President Ashraf Ghani speaks during a news conference in Kabul, Afghanistan July 11, 2016. REUTERS/Omar Sobhani

Reuters: Afghan president says Taliban wouldn't last a month without Pakistan support

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said on Sunday that the Taliban insurgency would not survive a month if it lost its sanctuary in neighboring Pakistan, urging its neighbor to take on militant groups on its soil instead of giving Kabul financial aid.

Ghani's remarks, made at an international conference in the northern Indian city of Amritsar not far from the border with Pakistan, suggested tensions were rising with Pakistan after Ghani attempted to improve relations with Islamabad when he took office in 2014.

Pakistan said while violence had increased in Afghanistan , blaming another country for it didn't help.

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Update #1: Afghanistan's Ghani criticises Pakistan for 'undeclared war' (AFP)
Update #2: Ashraf Ghani at Heart of Asia: Pakistan shelters terrorists, Taliban testifies (India Today)

WNU Editor: He is right .... but to a point. Soviet leaders and military officials with their Afghan allies said the same thing during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s .... but then .... like today .... there are many other factors that influence the spread and growth of the Taliban. And if Pakistan was no longer a sanctuary .... the violence and bloodshed would still continue in Afghanistan. As for Pakistan itself .... they are combating their own Taliban insurgency .... and they are not doing a good job at it.

Pakistan Now Openly Showing Their 'Support' For the Afghan Taliban

Man believed to be Akhtar Mansoor is seen in undated photo. CBS

Reuters: Afghanistan seethes at Taliban meetings it says held in Pakistan

Aug 21 The new leader of the Taliban has met influential clerics seeking to heal a rift after the death of founder Mullah Omar, in the latest gathering to anger the Afghan government, which accuses Pakistan of allowing militants to meet on its territory.

Several key Taliban commanders pledged allegiance to Mullah Akhtar Mansour after his swift appointment to lead the armed Islamist movement in July, but other senior figures, including Omar's son, reject the way he was selected.

"These clerics tried to remove differences between Mansour and other Taliban members," Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told Reuters, referring to Thursday's meeting. "They listened to each other's viewpoint, but didn't reach a conclusion."

Update #1: Afghan ties with Pakistan sour as Taliban gain strength -- AP
Update #2: Taliban continues holding gatherings in Pakistan despite Afghanistan anger -- Khaama Press

WNU Editor: The Pakistanis are not even hiding it any-more.

Afghanistan Accuses Pakistan For Being Behind The Deadly Attack In Kabul On Friday Evening That Targeted Foreigners

Afghanistan Hints At Foreign Spy Link Behind Deadly Attack In Kabul -- Khaama Press

The National Security Council of Afghanistan, chaired by president Hamid Karzai accused the foreign intelligence agencies behind the deadly attack in capital Kabul on Friday evening, which left at least 21 people dead.

Without naming any specific foreign intelligence service, the National Security Council (NSC), said such sophisticated and complex attacks are not the work of the ordinary Taliban.

The presidential palace media office following a statement said, the NSC concluded in its session on Sunday that the foreign intelligence services beyond the border are behind such bloody attacks.

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Update #1: Afghanistan hints at spy link to Kabul attack -- Al Jazeera
Update #2: Pakistan accused of orchestrating terrorist attack in Kabul -- Examiner

My Comment: The Afghans are not providing any proof for these accusations .... but even if they did it would change nothing on the ground.

India - Pakistan Compete Over Afghanistan

Insight: As Afghanistan Endgame Looms, A Deadly Edge To India-Pakistan Rivalry -- Reuters

(Reuters) - Pakistan-based militants are preparing to take on India across the subcontinent once Western troops leave Afghanistan next year, several sources say, raising the risk of a dramatic spike in tensions between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan.

Intelligence sources in India believe that a botched suicide bombing of an Indian consulate in Afghanistan, which was followed within days last week by a lethal cross-border ambush on Indian soldiers in disputed Kashmir, suggest that the new campaign by Islamic militants may already be underway.

Members of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) militant outfit in Pakistan, the group blamed for the 2008 commando-style raid on Mumbai that killed 166 people, told Reuters they were preparing to take the fight to India once again, this time across the region.

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My Comment: With U.S. and international forces positioning themselves to leave Afghanistan, the perception from Pakistan and India is that a "power vacuum" is about to present itself. But instead of cooperation .... we have age old rivalries breaking out with Afghanistan in the middle .... a prospect that will serve no one's best interest and that will result in only the Taliban benefiting.

Pakistan Seeks Afghan Talks Between Government, Taliban And US

Viewpoint: Pakistan Seeks Afghan Talks Between Government, Taliban And US -- Ahmed Rashid, BBC

Pakistan's military has undergone a dramatic shift in policy in recent weeks, writes journalist and author Ahmed Rashid. After a decade spent allowing the Afghan Taliban sanctuary and freedom to sustain its insurgency in Afghanistan, it is now pushing for peace talks between the Taliban, the Afghan government and the Americans before Nato forces withdraw from Afghanistan in 2014.

Pakistan's change of heart - if sustained - could open up several new tracks in the peace process, bring about a ceasefire with the Taliban, encourage a wider regional settlement and improve Islamabad's own fraught relations with Washington. Most significantly, a ceasefire and peace talks with the Taliban could dramatically improve the chances of survival for the weak Afghan government and army once Western forces leave.

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My Comment: When it comes to Pakistan, I have learned that is always best to remain skeptical .... after-all .... this is the same country that imprisoned the doctor who helped the CIA find Bin laden.

Inside Story - Is Pakistan Backing The Taliban?

My Comment: Another must see video report from Al Jazeera

Pakistan Is Expressing Concern On The Upcoming U.S. Military Surge In Afghanistan

Photo: Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. Photo from the CBC.

‘Increase In US Troops May Make Pakistan’s Situation Worse’ -- Dawn

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said increase in US troops in Afghanistan might lead to a spill over of militants inside Pakistan and make the situation worse. Hence, western countries should evolve a joint strategy against the Taliban on the Pak-Afghan border, he said.

In an interview with German Press Agency ahead of his first visit to Germany as the prime minister, Gilani stressed the Obama administration would have to formulate the military strategy for Afghanistan in consultation with Pakistan.

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My Comment: I see this concern from the Pakistani PM as an admission (and confession) that many of the Taliban fighting in Afghanistan are from Pakistan. What can one say .... you reap what you sow, and Pakistan has been sowing these Islamic extremists for years.

Tackling The Afghanistan-Pakistan Problem -- Analysis and Commentary

From The Middle East Times:

Last week, Iran was invited to attend the international conference on Afghanistan in The Hague. This invitation was part of U.S. President Barack Obama plan to get Afghanistan's neighbors actively involved in being part of the solution rather than part of the problem. At that conference, Iran unsurprisingly criticized the occupation forces but said that it would help regarding the drug problem. The question remains: how much will Iran help?

After Pakistan and NATO, Iran is the most important player in Afghanistan. Iran has a long history with Afghanistan: Afghans settled in Iran hundreds of years ago. Today an estimated 2 million Afghans are believed to be living in the Islamic republic, but about 50 percent of them are illegal immigrants.

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Part 1 is here.

My Comment: This entire region has been experiencing distrust, hatred, war, poverty, and suffering for centuries. I am very skeptical that NATO intervention will change the dynamics for what has been the status quo for all this time .... but maybe .... just maybe .... in a few places there will be a spark for reform and progress, and we will be able to see it in the next few generations.

Crunch Time in Afghanistan-Pakistan

U.S. soldiers patrol in Khost province, eastern Afghanistan. Picture: REUTERS

From Small Wars Journal:

Dr David Kilcullen, a partner at the Crumpton Group and author of The Accidental Guerrilla, is the former Special Advisor for Counterinsurgency to the Secretary of State and a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. He worked in Afghanistan and Pakistan on counterinsurgency and counterterrorism strategy in 2005-6 and 2008. In 2007 he was the senior counterinsurgency advisor to General David Petraeus, in Baghdad.

Senator Joseph Lieberman made a timely and well-argued call, during his recent speech at the Brookings Institution, for a comprehensive political-military campaign in the Afghanistan-Pakistan (AFPAK) region. Seven years into a long war, we need to be honest with ourselves about the harsh strategic choices we face. And we need to recognize that before we can expect long-term strategic progress, we first have to deal with an immediate, acute crisis that could derail the entire effort this year. Let me first discuss long-term strategic choices, then turn to the immediate crisis, and conclude with some remarks on Pakistan.

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My Comment: A long post .... but it summarizes perfectly what is at stake.

U.S. Problems In Afghanistan And Pakistan

U.S. Army Staff Sgt. Jeremy Behrens, from Alpha Company, 13th Psychological Operations Battalion, provides security from the turret of a Humvee in the village of Kapisa, Afghanistan, May 15, 2007. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Dilia DeGrego

Mired in Combat -- Registan

An interesting pair of stories in the NYT illustrate brilliant just how complex the problems facing the U.S. in Afghanistan and Pakistan really are. The first is CJ Chivers’ look at an embattled outpost in Nuristan:

The Americans’ mission is to disrupt the Taliban and foreign fighters on supply paths from Pakistan’s tribal areas. Col. John Spiszer, the commanding officer for the larger task force in the region, distilled how the mission often worked. The American presence, he said, is a Taliban magnet, drawing insurgents from more populated areas and enhancing security elsewhere.

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My Comment: A well written post that summarizes two news reports that the New York Times filed on the challenges the U.S. will face in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

New Approaches For Cooperation Between Afghanistan And Pakistan Against The Taliban

U.S. Army Sgt. Michael Espejo, 66th Military Police Company stationed out of Fort Lewis, Wash., pulls security at the Pakistani border at Torkham Gate during the Afghan Independence Day ceremonies, Aug. 19. U.S. Army photo by Pfc. Daniel M. Rangel

Afghan-Pakistani Coalition Force Proposed: Defense Minister
-- Space War

Afghanistan's defense minister proposed Monday creating a joint Afghan-Pakistani-coalition force to operate against insurgents on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border.

Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak said the idea was broached about a month and a half ago at a meeting of senior US, Afghan and Pakistani officials.

The Pakistanis "said they are looking at it," Wardak told reporters during a visit to the Pentagon.

"A terrorist does not recognize any boundaries," Wardak said.

"So to fight them we have to eventually come up with some arrangement together with our neighbor Pakistan that we should have a combined and joint task force of coalition Afghan and Pakistani forces to be able to operate on both sides of the border."

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More From The Washington Post: U.S., Afghans and Pakistanis Consider Joint Military Force

My Comment: Nothing is going to come out of this. Pakistan is too fractured for any hope of cooperation at this moment in time.

Another Excellent Analysis And Commentary From The Captain's Journal On Afghanistan

(Click To Enlarge)

High Value Target Initiative in the North West
Frontier Province -- Captain's Journal

The Captain’s Journal has previously discussed the kinetic operations in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) of the Pakistan tribal area, along with the stand down of these operations over Ramadan. It now appears that the entire effort was a high value target initiative.

The Pakistani military has halted operations in Bajaur Agency in the northwest of the country, saying “the back has been broken” of the militancy there.

A military spokesman said that in light of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which began on Sunday, all action would stop, which would allow about 500,000 displaced people to return home. Officials claim that in three weeks of fighting 560 militants have been killed, with the loss of 20 members of the security forces.

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My Comment: I started to receive emails from the Captain's Journal last year, and I was originally not interested in what he was writing about. His focus has always been on Afghanistan, and while I was originally skeptical on many of his posts, I must admit I now see the wisdom of his experience and observations on the Afghan campaign.

His blog should be on every Afghan observer's blogroll.

Pakistan Reacts With Fury After Up To 20 Die In 'American' Attack On Its Soil

Relations have become increasingly fraught between the US and Pakistan, which is struggling to control Islamist militants. Photograph: John Moore/EPA

From the Guardian:

The war in Afghanistan spilled over on to Pakistani territory for the first time yesterday when heavily armed commandos, believed to be US Special Forces, landed by helicopter and attacked three houses in a village close to a known Taliban and al-Qaida stronghold.

The surprise attack on Jala Khel was launched in early morning darkness and killed between seven and 20 people, according to a range of reports from the remote Angoor Adda region of South Waziristan. The village is situated less than one mile from the Afghan border.

Local residents were quoted as saying that most of the dead were civilians and included women and children. It was not known whether any Taliban or al-Qaida militants or western forces were among the dead.

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My Comment: Taliban fighters travel from Pakistan to Afghanistan and back everyday. Pakistan cannot have it both ways. Nato and Afghan forces have clearly made the decision to now conduct hot pursuits into Pakistan. Pakistan is now reaping what they have sowed. Unfortunately, I expect violence to now significantly increase on both sides of the border. This has also the potential to now be a full scale and bloody war with pakistan no longer cooperating with Nato in fighting the Taliban.

Pakistan is in a terrible economic, social, political, and military mess. An observation that .... to be honest .... I am being very generous with right now.